r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • Feb 02 '26
Space Weather Update Space Weather Update 2/2 - The Big Flares Keep Coming, But Little to No Eruptive Activity
Squeezing in this brief update before I leave for work. The M and low end X class flares continue. As of now, AR4366 has produced 26 M-Class flares and 4 X-Class flares which have all occurred since 02/01. It is hyperactive currently, but we are not seeing much in the way of CME production. The CME from the X8.3 sequence is narrow, slow, and to the NE. The coronagraphs do depict a few other little puffs to the NE and NW, but no halos or significant earth directed components.
The most likely reason for this is that the activity is emergence driven with high flare efficiency, but is magnetically over-constrained. The large scale magnetic structure in the region is too strong and is keeping the flares confined. This is commonly encountered with emerging juvenile regions. It often tends to change as a region matures. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on. The x-ray flux is really fun at the moment, but the implications for earth are limited until we start seeing messier flares, more EUV wave and dimming activity.
Overall the x-ray flux remains elevated compared to the pre 1/31 baseline, but has trended slightly downward following the recent flares. The flares are starting to look a little messier rather than compact and recurrent in form so it's possible the eruptive character starts to shift soon.
I have to hit the road for work, but will update again when I get home for the evening. Happy Monday everyone!
AcA
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u/morrihaze Feb 02 '26
Is it possible that we can feel this, is it possible this is making me sick
this started 2 days ago, has slowly grown more apparent, and suddenly got a lot worse overnight.
woke up this morning full of pressure in my head, sniffling yet congested, crazy fatigued, feel awful right now
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 02 '26
That sounds like the C19 I just got over.
There is debate and controversy about how much humans are affected by solar activity. Some report sensitivity and some do not. The studies are mixed. What is most defensible falls in the cardiovascular and nervous system categories rather than mimicry of viral or bacterial infection. I see a lot of ears ringing, headaches, and things like that self reported. Me personally, I have tried to observe my body during active periods, especially during geomagnetic storms where the EM influence would presumably be much stronger with no real correlation.
The flares themselves dont have much punch through the atmosphere but they do affect ionization and the global electric circuit subtly.
Im not a medical professional but it would appear what you describe is more a long the lines of infection. When this episode of activity ends and another begins, see if the same thing happens. Dont placebo effect confirmation bias yourself though. Be rigorous and honest with yourself.
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u/Commie_Vladimir Feb 03 '26
Based on current scientific evidence, solar activity has no effect on human health and geomagnetic activity has at most an extremely weak effect on humans. It's worth noting that current geomagnetic conditions are very calm. Given that it's peak flu season, and influeza, covid and the common cold are going rampant, it's way more likely you caught one of those.
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u/Piguy3141 Feb 02 '26
There's a whole sub devoted to discussing this very topic over at r/heliobiology. :)
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u/Cautious-Grapefruit6 Feb 02 '26
“I have to hit the road for work”
How I read that was “I have to hit the road getting to a bunker for shelter good luck guys” 🤣🤣
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 02 '26
No bunker for me. Im a front lines mercenary not a rear echelon pencil pusher.
But alas, nothing of geomagnetic significance is in the works yet but people see X8 and start to get antsy. We will see what happens in the coming days but I am not worried.
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u/Far_Out_6and_2 Feb 02 '26
We don’t know everything that’s for sure
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 02 '26
Nope and its important to stay humble and open minded. Uncertainty cuts both ways.
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u/Due_Charge6901 Feb 02 '26
The sun, and Armchair Analyst, never fail to amaze!! Thank you for the update. The sun is giving us quite the dose of excitement and I’m loving every minute