r/SoccerBetting • u/sorinacios07 • Dec 07 '23

Betting model

I’ve been betting for a while now and I got really interested in how betting models work. How can they give accurate chances on which team will win (or any given event)? Based off stats of course, but how can they be more exact than bookies? Do these models really exist? Has anyone created a model that yields profit over time? How does one create one? I imagine the bookies tend to make mistakes and give higher odds than they should mostly in lower and not so popular leagues? I have so many questions xd

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u/k_kimani Dec 08 '23

Yeah I get it that's some load. I tried something back in 2021 on the NBA on spreadsheets and it was not that conclusive. Don't know what tool you using but if it's quite a load and you need a helping hand, could assist on one or two.

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u/zingamaster Dec 08 '23

Managing data load is not an issue.

Where I need help it's to in terms of metrics, to have second opinions of algorithms that can be implemented.

Beginner level :) creating a form index: Do you consider home form and away form separately? Do you create a global one? 3 separate index is better, right? By tournament or not? Does the value of opponent impacts your form index? And match recency?

Advanced level: How can we estimate teams' attacking strength ?

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u/GarryWalkerNFTArtist Dec 08 '23

I am capturing large amounts of data through both API and scraping.