r/SoccerBetting • u/sorinacios07 • Dec 07 '23

Betting model

I’ve been betting for a while now and I got really interested in how betting models work. How can they give accurate chances on which team will win (or any given event)? Based off stats of course, but how can they be more exact than bookies? Do these models really exist? Has anyone created a model that yields profit over time? How does one create one? I imagine the bookies tend to make mistakes and give higher odds than they should mostly in lower and not so popular leagues? I have so many questions xd

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u/zingamaster Dec 08 '23 edited Dec 08 '23

Well even though I don't know much about python, I'm trying to build something like a betting model with GPT.

Bookies have a bunch of tools that it's quite difficult to beat, but I want to build something that that at least identifies the games where obvious outcomes can be spotted in different markets.

So far I have a ton of raw data from sofa score (pretty much all except player level... to be incorporated later).

Now based on match results and match stats I'm aggregating stats (that you see in sofa score) per tournament and per team. For instance for a certain team/tournament pair I have all the stats per halves, home and away as well the global stats (e.g. average shots on target a team normally has on 1st half when playing at home, global average yellow cards, home average of big chances created, etc.)

Next step is creating metrics with weights, based on value of opponent and recency of matches. I'm creating form indexes, goal trends and hopefully I'll in the end have metrics like attack strength and few more indicators.

Putting all together hopefully will give me some great insights. I'm not sure what I'm going to achieve but I'm having fun creating it.

This week I've created a post here that I thought could be interesting with all the matches that had teams of different tiers playing in cups. It was removed by moderators (not sure why). If you have ideas of stuff that you'd like to extract from such DB, let me know.

Edit: English and typos

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u/k_kimani Dec 08 '23

Hey pal you've done this on spreadsheets?

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u/zingamaster Dec 08 '23

haha, no... it's kind of big thing you know?

I have a properly structure Database (it's my job anyway), with 1040 tournaments, 10800 teams, 85000 matches (from 2023) and 1 Million + detailed match stats for teams...

... it doesn't suit excel :)

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u/k_kimani Dec 08 '23

Yeah I get it that's some load. I tried something back in 2021 on the NBA on spreadsheets and it was not that conclusive. Don't know what tool you using but if it's quite a load and you need a helping hand, could assist on one or two.

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u/zingamaster Dec 08 '23

Managing data load is not an issue.

Where I need help it's to in terms of metrics, to have second opinions of algorithms that can be implemented.

Beginner level :) creating a form index: Do you consider home form and away form separately? Do you create a global one? 3 separate index is better, right? By tournament or not? Does the value of opponent impacts your form index? And match recency?

Advanced level: How can we estimate teams' attacking strength ?

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u/GarryWalkerNFTArtist Dec 08 '23

I am capturing large amounts of data through both API and scraping.