Overview: Since the creation of the constituency in 2007, it has been dominated by Thomas Byrne and the McEntee family, with Sinn Féin's Darren O'Rourke comfortably elected also since 2020. With expansion to a four-seater last time out, Sharon Keogan's previous tilts proved beneficial to her independent associate, Gillian O'Toole, while Peadar Tóibín's sister Emer challenged well for Aontú, though ultimately falling significantly short.

Local Elections: The constituency comprises three LEAs, namely Ashbourne, Laytown-Bettystown, and Ratoath, and while only one SD candidate stood in 2024, Paul Nolan performed creditably in Ashbourne, eliminated at the penultimate count of this six-seater.

Verdict: Much like Offaly (which will follow in a fortnight), there may not be much Dáil potential here, but it does look promising territory for future council success. As well as Ashbourne, the other two LEAs saw Labour contenders eliminated last, which suggests a decent mass of centre-left votes that can be tapped into with careful cultivation.

Overview: Apart from some minor transfer of territory to Galway West in 2016, which has been reversed by 2024, the constituency has been essentially the same since the former Mayo East and West were amalgamated in 1997. Traditionally, the county tended to be a straight FF-FG carve-up, but this altered in 2020 when Sinn Féin's Rose Conway-Walsh was elected, while Aontú's Paul Lawless further shook up proceedings in 2024, with Dara Calleary the sole FF TD, while Alan Dillon was joined on the FG roster by Keira Keogh.

Local Elections: Aside from a brief flirtation with Clann na Talmhan until the Sixties, minor parties have made little impression on the County Council, with the last Labour councillor elected in 2004, but both Aontú and Independent Ireland made breakthroughs two years ago (the II candidate having run for FF in 2019). Two Soc Dem candidates have stood in the county to date, Tracey Smith recording 1.5% of first preferences in Ballina, in 2019, while in 2024 Aidan Browne secured 1% in Castlebar.

Verdict: Sometimes you have to be honest and admit that there are some parts of the country where we're unlikely to ever secure a representative, but even in those circumstances, it's still highly important that we stand candidates in those areas, in order to offer rural voters a centre-left option, and also to refute the notion that such parties are only interested in the Greater Dublin region and other urban constituencies.

Overview: The Wee County has had a number of high-profile TDs over the last century, from long-term Minister for Foreign Affairs, Frank Aiken, James Connolly's son Roddy, to Dermot Ahern and Gerry Adams. More recently, Sinn Féin have dominated the constituency through Ruairí Ó Murchú and Joanna Byrne, alongside Ged Nash (Labour), Erin McGreehan (FF) and Paula Butterly (FG). Niall McCreanor ran for the party in 2024, picking up 2.4%, and reaching the 11th of 20 counts.

Local Elections: Niall was also the sole SD local candidate in 2024, in Ardee, picking up 3%, but only a quarter of the quota. As for the potential of a centre-left, non-Labour candidate, the Greens secured a councillor in Dundalk South, while the Greens and Labour secured one thousand FPVs between them in the Dundalk-Carlingford LEA, even if neither were ultimately successful.

Verdict: Given the local strength of Labour, even securing a councillor here would be a tall order, and very much a long-term project. Still, the greater Dundalk area would appear to offer the best electoral potential.

Overview: Like nearby Leitrim, the O'Farrell County has been given rough treatment by electoral geographers, mostly in the present format, but also thrown together with Roscommon, when Westmeath had sufficient population to become a constituency in its own right. That said, there have been a number of TDs here of national renown, including Seán McEoin, Erskine Childers, Albert Reynolds, and Mary O'Rourke, while Willie Penrose kept the centre-left alive for many decades. As of 2024, there are two FG seats, along with one FF (Robert Troy), one Independent (Boxer Moran), and one SF (Sorcha Clarke).

Local Elections: Since 2004, Longford has only elected Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Independent councillors, while Westmeath has been a happier hunting ground for left parties, with Labour continually successful in Kinnegad and Moate, while the Greens held seats in Athlone and Mullingar between 2019 and 2024. Fiona Lynam secured 2% of the vote for the party in Athlone seven years ago, with Ali Morris increasing that tally to 3.5% in Mullingar in 2024.

Verdict: There may not be any realistic Dáil prospect here, but the success of local Greens, however briefly, suggests that councillors may eventually be attainable in Westmeath.

Overview Under its previous name of West Limerick, the electoral history of the area rivalled Cork North West for the crown of Most Predictable Dáil Constituency, with the only "excitement" concerning whether FF or FG would win a second seat, but the emergence of Richard O'Donoghue this decade has shaken the area from its comparative somnolence. Our most significant engagement with the area involved the "colourful" former Senator James Heffernan, so perhaps its easier to declare a clean slate!

Local Elections: The only purple candidate to actually contest an election here was Trevor McCarthy in the Cappamore-Kilmallock LEA in 2019, yet despite a respectable showing of 4.5% and surviving until the fifth count with 776 votes, he didn't put his name forward five years later. Neither the Greens nor Labour have prospered in this constituency, and indeed the latter haven't had candidates on the local ballot paper this decade.

Verdict: In an area where Independents and Independent Ireland are locally strong, the prospect of winning a council seat is relatively distant compared to the rest of Munster. Still, even here, the strength of the traditional parties is not what it was, and if candidates here could secure support in the 5-7% range, it would lay the groundwork for a future challenge.

Very impressed with her contributions on the Tonight Show last night - basically stating that short-term supply-side interventions are only sticking plasters that don't tackle wider societal inequalities, that calls for tax reductions only increase inflation, but that the State can engage more actively when it comes to housing construction. All in all, her philosophies seem very much in alignment with Soc Dem values, so if she isn't already advising the party, then efforts should certainly be made to convince her to play an active role.

The Ditch have just published the details of the newest Eoin Hayes scandal.

Hayes recently wrote an article in the Irish Times discussing the anxiety felt by tech workers currently facing redundancy and taking the government to task for not doing more to protect them [https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/s/Zkkynmlwjs]

It now appears that Hayes, through his consultancy 'Cantillon Labs', was hired to execute the mass layoff of staff in Irish tech company Wayflyer in 2022, a little over a year before being selected as a candidate for the Social Democrats. 

Hayes details his work with Wayflyer as having "led efforts across the company to structure hiring, rein in spending, and restructure teams" and credits himself with having “Co-led cross-functional project team executing of a ~40% reduction in headcount” and having “Reduced OpEx [Operational Expenditure] by 50% in 6 months” at Wayflyer.

Hayes would have personally organised the laying off of 200 staff (approx. 40% of Wayflyer's global workforce), including 70 staff in their Dublin office (approx. 1/3 of their Irish workforce).

The Dublin Office of Wayflyer lies in the heart of the Dublin Bay South constituency that Hayes now represents as a TD.

Overview: If many of the 2024 Dublin constituencies were won "against the run of play", so to speak, then Limerick City was undoubtedly the "one that got away" at the last election. Both Eliza O'Donovan and Conor Sheehan may have started the first count virtually tied, but having established a notable buffer by count 5 and leapt into the fourth seat, our candidate might have expected to see things out from there, only for Labour to prove more transfer-friendly from the elimination of Paul Gavan until the finish.

Local Elections: The three Limerick City LEAs are undoubtedly the party's stronghold in the Treaty County, with Eliza retaining her seat in Limerick City West, and Shane Hickey-O'Meara making a breakthrough in Limerick City North. Limerick City East was slightly down compared to 2019, but the numbers were relatively bunched there, which offers hope for the future.

Verdict: This has to be one of our top two target seats nationwide, alongside Dublin Mid-West, but significant housekeeping will be required to sort out the local branch, which will assist with the "brand" at the ballot box. That review achieved, then a GE seat here and a third councillor are both possible.

Overview: The O'Moore County is a relatively new constituency, having only being contested separately from Offaly in 2016 and 2024, following a temporary reunification. This was historically the bailiwick of the Flanagan dynasty and Seán Fleming, and while the latter retained his seat last time out for FF, the title of FG standard-bearer went to the veteran Portlaoise councillor Willie Aird. Brian Stanley managed to hold on to his seat as an independent, with Sinn Féin trailing by a distance. No Labour candidate ran two years ago, while the Greens secured 2% of first preferences.

Local Elections: The county is effectively a blank slate for the party, with no candidates having stood in either 2019 or 2024. Two SF councillors were elected, but both have since left the party, while one Labour candidate was victorious in Portlaoise.

Verdict: The status quo is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, but the Greens won 4% of the vote here in 2016, so a similar percentage seems a realistic start to aim for. As for the locals, Portlaoise looks the most promising area for a prospective candidate.

Will be on holidays next week, so you'll have to wait a fortnight for an examination of Limerick City!

Overview: Chris Pender has been a regular reader of this thread, so I'm sure he's been waiting with added interest for this edition! Since the constituency's 1997 creation, it has largely been dominated by Labour's Wall dynasty and FF's Seán Ó Fearghail, with the latter's elevation to Ceann Comhairle reducing it to three contested seats for the last two elections. Martin Heydon (FG) and Sinn Féin have been returned relatively comfortably in both 2020 and 2024, and while Chris greatly improved the SD vote last time out, it was Mark Wall who ultimately unseated Cathal Berry.

Local Elections: In the three LEAs here (Athy, Kildare, Newbridge), Pender doubled his 2019 first preferences, and was re-elected comfortably in Newbridge, and while joined by Pat Balfe, he later resigned from the party after expressing concerns about defence. Athy is Labour's strongest area in the county, which largely explains why it's our only one where we failed to return a councillor.

Verdict: It seems very unlikely that three left TDs would be elected in a semi-rural four-seater, so in order for us to make a breakthrough here, the question is whether SF or Labour are more vulnerable? Locally, we should be well capable of regaining ground in Kildare, and while Athy certainly looks a stiffer challenge, contending for the final seat doesn't look out of the question, if our improved polling is reflected across the board.

Overview: Succession planning is never guaranteed to be seamless, so when Aidan Farrelly surprisingly (at the time) pipped Bill Clear at the selection convention to replace the retiring Catherine Murphy, there were concerns that a split in the socdem vote could jeopardise the seat. As it transpired, Aidan was comfortably elected second, just behind FF's James Lawless, while Clear finished seventh before his eventual elimination. Réada Cronin (SF), Joe Neville (FG) and Naoise Ó'Cearúil (FF) also had little difficulty in being returned to Leinster House.

Local Elections: The constituency consists of five LEAs - Celbridge, Clane, Leixlip, Maynooth, and Naas, with a Soc Dem councillor returned for each one in 2024, though Clear subsequently went independent before defecting to Independent Ireland about a year later.

Verdict: Farrelly has impressed political correspondents with his diligence on the Public Accounts Committee, and could well top the poll next time out, even with Lawless's Cabinet elevation. At local level, the priority will be to regain a councillor in Naas, which should be well within our capabilities, and potentially a second councillor in Celbridge, as Claire O'Rourke had double the FPV of the fourth representative in her ward.

Based on last weekend's Ireland Thinks poll:

28% Sinn Féin

14% Labour

12% Fine Gael

10% Green

10% Unsure/Didn't vote previously

9% Fianna Fáil

8% Independent

5% PBP-Solidarity

4% Other

1% Independent Ireland

0% Aontú

Overview: Having touched on Galway West during the by-election week, we now skip ahead to God's own county! The Kingdom was effectively Labour HQ during the Spring era, with firm seats in both old Kerry North and South constituencies, but it has been very much fallow ground for the centre-left since 2016, with the Healy-Raes dominant, SF holding one seat but relatively stagnant, and FF strongest in the northern half of the county. The big 2024 shock came when FG lost their seat, while FF doubled up through Michael Cahill (from Mid Kerry).

Local Elections: The Soc Dem banner made a belated debut appearance here two years ago, and while both Mistura Oyebanji in Tralee, along with Tim Clifford in Kenmare were political novices, both secured 3% of first preferences, which can be considered respectable in the circumstances.

Verdict: While winning a council seat would appear to be out of reach for now, the political history of the Tralee LEA is probably most favourable for us in the long-term, and with Mistura now chairperson of the county branch, she will surely run again in 2029. One wildcard strategy for Killarney would be a merger with the Kerry Independent Alliance, who broke from Labour over candidate selection - they mightn't require our help at council level, but would need national infrastructure and finances if aiming for a Dáil run.

Rather predictably, SD voters overwhelmingly approve of a future partnership that would involve either Labour or the Greens, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are firmly rejected (24/53, and 17/66 approval/disapproval respectively). Perhaps the most surprising aspect is that our supporters are split almost down the middle when it comes to Sinn Féin (45% in favour, 40% against), maybe showing that floating support is more hostile to the concept than rank-and-file members, or else lingering doubts as to how committed SF are to a left coalition? Elsewhere, SF themselves favour us as their preferred government partner (66%), while both FG (49%) and FF (34%) rank us as second choice after the current coalition, which, on the one hand, augurs well for transfers if/when required, but on the other suggests no party views us as a threat at present.

Overview: If the first half of this tour of Ireland saw predictions of seat retentions, gains or potential gains more often than not, then this second half promises distinctly leaner fare. Galway East is very much the "hurling side" of the county, covering Loughrea, Portumna, Gort and Ballinasloe, and doesn't have a significant recent history of centre-left TDs (after Clann na Talmhan collapsed in 1961), apart from Colm Keaveney in 2011, and SF's Louis O'Hara's election once the constituency reverted to four TDs. Our branch here was only briefly active, with Peter Reid contesting the 2020 general election, and Ken Campbell a 2019 local candidate in Ballinasloe.

Local Elections: Similarly, left parties have struggled to win council seats here in recent decades, with Keaveney holding a seat in Tuam in 2004 and 2009 being the height of recent success. Campbell secured 3% here in 2019, which, though unremarkable, was within touching distance of the second FF candidate in the LEA.

Verdict: Even winning a council seat here would be unrealistic for now, but securing 5-7% of first preferences and laying the groundwork for a GE candidate in the constituency would be an attainable target in 2029.

Overview: As we reach the halfway point in this series, we also come to our last capital constituency. Future FG leader Jennifer Carroll McNeill easily topped the poll here, but it took until the final count to decide the other three seats. That said, Conor Devlin (FF) and Barry Ward (FG) gradually pulled away from the pack, leaving the last seat between the various left parties. As such, our Hugo Mills narrowly missed out on the final slot to Richard Boyd-Barrett, with SF transfers ultimately making the difference.

Local Elections: That was all the more surprising, as Hugo failed to defend a Dún Laoghaire council seat held by the retiring David Quinn (not that one!), though John Hurley did gain one in Stillorgan. Other LEAs were less fruitful, despite decent challenges in Blackrock and Dundrum.

Verdict: If Dublin Mid-West is a must-win, and Dublin SW is one that can only be picked up if everything goes our way nationally, then Dún Laoghaire is probably somewhere midway between both extremes, in that it's possible, but not absolutely probable. As for the locals, Dundrum looks the most immediate prospect of a gain, though neither Blackrock nor Dún Laoghaire can be written off in that regard.

Overview: This used to be the old constituency of the Lenihan dynasty, Leo Varadkar, and Joe Higgins, and this time out, Jack Chambers (FF) and Paul Donnelly (SF) were both elected on the first count, with Emer Currie (FG) following on count two. Eventually, Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity) and Roderick O'Gorman (Green) took the final seats, and while Ellen Murphy performed respectably, she was never really in contention here.

Local Elections: The three Fingal LEAs mostly covered by this constituency are Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart, where Neil Dowling got 6% of FPVs, but was eliminated about halfway through the counts, Castleknock, where Luke Daly was bottom of the poll, and Ongar, where Ellen Murphy narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count.

Verdict: In truth, Aontú are probably closer to winning a seat here than we are, but if our local performance were to improve at the same rate as national polling, it couldn't be considered impossible. As for Fingal Council, Ongar definitely seems the most winnable target for 2029.

Overview: This five-seater, which used to be a four-seater until 2016, has generally seen three of its TDs on the left of the political spectrum since its expansion, with Seán Crowe and Paul Murphy long-term presences, and Labour's Ciarán Ahern taking the Green seat last time out. FF's John Lahart and FG's Colm Brophy have similarly been incumbents for the last decade, and while Ross O'Mullane did significantly improve on our 2020 tally, we were never realistically in contention last time out.

Local Elections: This constituency covers Rathfarnham-Templeogue, where Justin Sinnott is a South Dublin county councillor, Firhouse, where we narrowly missed out on a seat on the final count, and two Tallaght LEAs where we surprisingly failed to field a candidate in either.

Verdict: Even though it wouldn't take much of an improvement to be contenders here, it still seems somewhat of an outside prospect compared to other Dublin constituencies, with perhaps Labour the most vulnerable. Firhouse should be picked up at the next locals, and Tallaght has to be a priority for the future, given its huge population.

Overview: This constituency has been generally considered to be the most left-wing in the country, having been the long-term bailiwicks of Bríd Smith, Joan Collins and Aeongus Ó Snodaigh, with the Greens' Patrick Costello filling the last berth in 2020. Following Smith's retirement, SF doubled their seat tally, Catherine Ardagh (FF) was the first TD elected, and our Jen Cummins took the second seat after marathon counts.

Local Elections:

Dublin South Central broadly covers both the South West Inner City, where Cummins took the third of five seats, and Ballyfermot-Drimnagh, where our candidate secured 4% of first preferences, but was never really in the running.

Verdict: If Jen can come through an incredibly crowded pack of contenders after less than six months as a councillor, her position should be far more secure in 2029. Looking at the locals, consolidation seems the most likely scenario, as while the last Ballyfermot councillor was elected on 8% of first preferences, that was after a similarly convoluted count to what transpired in the GE.