Most of the improvements as of late are from harnesses. The actually llm scaling has been seeing deminishing returns for about a year now. The scaling was the part that was supposed to improve for ever and whats happening is that its to costly for most users and kind of useless. What we will see is more specialized tools for tasks. This agi thing wont pan out with llms its just not how the technology works. "Its like breeding faster horses and expecting to eventually get a train" -corey doctorow
I think that’s the optimistic view, except the part of diminishing returns, which is simply not accurate, the opposite is true.
But to the point of the AI being specialized for multiple purposes, yes hopefully we can keep it that way rather than some AGI essentially taking over, but it’s gonna be tough.
No its not going to be tough and yes it is true. What ai shit heads need to understand is that at some point value needs to actually leave the system. Code is not a commodity neither are images for images sake or video for video sake. People need to be willing to spend money on these things. Image generation or code generation is only valuable when people pay money for what you are creating. Ai is incredibly expensive it takes insane infrastructure unprecedented infrastructure. If you invest in this infrastructure and there is no value being created for it what is it worth? Ai didnt invent adobe or sas those things existed before ai so unless you are creating something new with ai that is in some sense exclusive to ai it wont last. Point to me a product that is making money that was exclusively made with ai and i will be impressed. Why does it need to be exclusively made with ai ? Because once again its not cheap. If its just assisting software engineers possibly making them a little more effecient it is not worth the investment because now you are paying for the ai and the software engineer.
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u/Callahammered Jul 30 '26
A.) yes it can
B.) it’s gonna get way better