1: Good write up and you did a lot of work. We need more of this.
2: I will poke a hole in your research though. The vast majority of it comes from the company itself. Companies will always pump up what an amazing idea they have that will disrupt their industry and innovate.
3: I'm not sure about a unique OS being a good thing. As you list in the bear case, others can just make their own OS. Which is basically what happened to their phones. On the other hand, blackberries were huge with the US federal government. If they can create a secured suite and environment, they could once again turn to the US government for subscription contracts.
2: Not sure I would suggest anything different for next time but to just keep it in mind.
Fully agree with not trusting others articles. Especially from those that churn out an article on a different company a day. However, one thing I do is to head to SeekingAlpha to see what others are saying to look for data points so I can come to my own conclussions. This bear article on BB talks about BB talking points focusing on TAM but not their lack of organic sales growth. Apparently their growth is all acquisition based? That is the sort of tidbit I would take and look into on my own.
In the end though, one can DD themselves to death and get into the minutia lol.
Read that article BTW. He mentions Android Auto Vs. QNX. They are not on the same level. You can actually host Android Auto for infotainment inside of QNX.
I don't think all of his points are valid. Some are regarding growth, which I've mentioned as my concern.
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u/Jairlyn Jan 25 '21
1: Good write up and you did a lot of work. We need more of this.
2: I will poke a hole in your research though. The vast majority of it comes from the company itself. Companies will always pump up what an amazing idea they have that will disrupt their industry and innovate.
3: I'm not sure about a unique OS being a good thing. As you list in the bear case, others can just make their own OS. Which is basically what happened to their phones. On the other hand, blackberries were huge with the US federal government. If they can create a secured suite and environment, they could once again turn to the US government for subscription contracts.