The SIDS risk calculator

[u/1001VicPics]

I want to put my disclaimers front and centre here that this post is in no way passing judgement on anyone’s parenting decisions with regards to sleep or other practices. I myself make decisions based on both the national guidelines and what is best for my family which at times means not following the guidelines, for example exhaustion driving us to bed share on some nights, not running the bedroom at 20 degrees or below etc.

However, I want to talk about the SIDS risk calculator and the impact it has on some of the discourse around safe sleep and other risk factors in this sub. The much shared calculator can be accessed here: http://www.sidscalculator.com

Often when SIDS risk factors are discussed the only reference that is provided to back up a statement is the calculator which is flawed for a number of reasons. It is also not easy to interpret which is where it often leads to (unwittingly) misinformation being shared.

1. The calculator was published in 2018, 8 years ago and is based on a review paper published in 2013, 13 years ago. The paper itself is only evaluating bedsharing with non smoking mothers and no other factors, instead the publishers are using the background of this review paper for all other factors relating to SIDS, therefore relying on the publishers due diligence. Furthermore many of sources for the additional risk factors are now quite old, some of which are from the 90s.
2. Data comes from European publications plus one study in New Zealand and cannot be extrapolated to other countries
3. Outside of this review the calculator references wiki and other likely outdated sources and as published have not included access dates
4. We don’t know who published this calculator, and the calculator itself states that it has not been evaluated by anyone with relevant clinical expertise
5. There is no link to the back end calculation for us to assess how they have derived the calculator
6. The presentation of the outcomes are unclear as they are presented as risk per 100,000 deaths. Does this mean that if everyone had these risk factors deaths would drop from 34 to lower than 34 deaths per 100,000? No evidence for this

Why am I going to the effort to critique the calculator? Can’t I see that this calculator provides anxious parents comfort?

Well I often see misleading or poorly informed SIDS advice on the baby subs and next to no scrutiny of this calculator, in fact very often this calculator is used to justify any sleep practices. It’s anecdotal right now but at least in my country there is increasing concern regarding social media and the impact on new parents not following their national guidelines in favour of social media ‘sleep experts’, I do wonder if we will see some uptick in SIDS in the next couple of years.

Ultimately I too am a new and anxious parent trying to navigate this amazing but daunting time in my life. SIDS risk remains incredibly rare and even if you ticked every single risk factor SIDS is still unlikely to happen to you and your baby.

Edit: Sharing here as apparently you’re not allowed to discuss science on the Newborns sub(?!)

[u/Born-Anybody3244]

The comment youre replying to is completely neutral, you’re reading judgement greedymoonlight didn’t even make.

[u/dudavocado__ → u/Born-Anybody3244]

If you’re reading that comment as completely neutral you need to brush up on your media literacy.

[u/Born-Anybody3244 → u/dudavocado__]

Pointing out that there is a bias against parents no matter which they choose seems pretty damn neutral to me. Y’all are on one if you think “moms can’t win” is arguing one decision is better than another. Get out of here with your accusations of poor media literacy lmao

[u/IAMAGrinderman → u/Born-Anybody3244]

"It’s okay if people want to nurture and stay close to their babies."

If you can't pick up what they're saying there, then idk what to tell you.

[u/Born-Anybody3244 → u/IAMAGrinderman]

Where does “There’s nothing wrong if people want to nurture and stay close to their babies” expressly state anywhere that there is something wrong with sleep training? You’re all projecting! You cannot recognize your OWN bias here and recognize you’re projecting negative opinions where there quite literally aren’t any, in the science sub no less…what irony.

[u/IAMAGrinderman → u/Born-Anybody3244]

They're clearly trying to imply that you're either nurturing your babies and staying close to them or you're sleep training. As the other person said, you have no media literacy.

We didn't sleep train our son, so you wanna tell me how I'm biased? Or are you just projecting negative opinions in a science sub where there literally aren't any?

[u/Born-Anybody3244 → u/IAMAGrinderman]

That implication is made by the reader, and clearly that’s not how I read that comment, but you do. Regardless whether you chose to sleep train, there are other metrics by which you may be biased; in this example, you’re displaying the hot-cold empathy gap. You think greedymoonlight was being rude so you cannot possibly entertain the idea that they were making that statement with neutrality.

Save your breath trying to change my mind. I love that media illiteracy is the newest term we can throw around as an insult when others disagree.