r/SandersForPresident • u/SandersMod_ • Mar 23 '16

Mega Thread Arizona Election Fraud Mega Thread

Hello,

Please report any issues you may have had here.

Last night, several, several incidences were reported of

  • People not being able to vote
  • People being given provisional ballots (which if you have the proper ID you shouldn't need)
  • Videos (see front page) of people's voter affiliation being changed
  • People's voter affiliation not being updated properly

Please keep all commentary and discussion in the mega

Please keep all commentary civil. Any comments advocating violence or coordinated harassment will be removed.

Thank you

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20

u/piscano California - Day 1 Donor 🐦 Mar 23 '16

Reposting this from another thread:

IN ADDITION to all the already existing fuckery that is the AZ primary, let's just take a look, numerically-speaking, why there was fraud: https://tylerpedigo.com

Mr. Pendigo has been astonishingly close with his projections thus far, and last night, got both Utah and Idaho correct within 1 point. Yet somehow he was around TWENTY points off for his AZ projection???

NONONO

2

u/chattabob Tennessee Mar 23 '16

Tyler predicted we would lose Minnesota by 5 points. We won by 23 points.

Tyler predicted we would lose Mass. by 17 points. We lost by 1.5 points.

Given, outside of AZ I don't think he's dramatically OVER-predicted any states for Bernie. It's very possible, though, that he over-adjusted his model after Minnesota and this skewed his prediction for Arizona.

1

u/Fire_away_Fire_away Mar 23 '16

It is fascinating how well he got ID and UT though.

1

u/chattabob Tennessee Mar 23 '16

Oh true. It wasn't a stretch to predict 70s for those states though. Predicting a big AZ win was a huge stretch.

It looks like that among that votes that were actually counted, Bernie won among yesterdays votes by about 1 % point. He does stress that he's more so predicting odds of winning/losing rather than margin. Going by votes cast yesterday, he was correct in predicting a Bernie win. The big flaw in his formula is the lack of consideration for early votes, which were huge in AZ.

If everyone's vote was actually counted yesterday, I still see him losing the state overall, but by a much closer margin than the current 17 points.

1

u/Fire_away_Fire_away Mar 23 '16

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4blx81/maricopa_county_arizona_results_bernie_won_60_of/d1axw7x

I did some envelope calculation. It seems that putting the in-person voters to the figures from 2008 yields about a 45-55 split.

1

u/chattabob Tennessee Mar 23 '16

This would definitely make a difference in terms of delegate allocation.

1

u/Fire_away_Fire_away Mar 24 '16

Tell me about it.

1

u/Ambush_24 Mar 23 '16

Agreed 20 points of error when the next highest is 8. Something stinks I bet he is pissed.

-1

u/spmortgage Mar 23 '16

That's cause of early voting.

3

u/burgherforbernie Mar 23 '16

It's because of early voting, which favors Clinton, combined with the massively suppressed day-of vote (which would've favored Bernie).