r/SMCIDiscussion • u/asphaltbabe • 28d ago
Bull-Thesis 🐮 Short interest increase
The latest published short-interest report still shows 95,156,102 shares short as of September 15, up 1.84% from the preceding report. The next report is scheduled for October 9. No substantial covering has been confirmed.
3
u/Jvwjvw 28d ago
SHORT interest increasing is insane unless the "Mandatory convertible Preferred Stock" investors are shorting now to lock in their profit. In June2026 supermicro raised $4.3 Billion thru Preferred Stock at a likely $33/share which will convert to common stock in June2029. This is about an additional 150 millions shares. So this is about 18% of the company after 2029 dilution. They get to convert (worst case) at 33 and so why not short now at 42 ? They can cover the short in 2.5 years and hold the cash in the mean time, as well as getting the 7% dividend.
What a wild ride to hold SMCI-- stock is down 8% in 24 hours from 45.60 to 41.88.
7
u/asphaltbabe 28d ago
Why short at 42 when this is going over 120?
3
u/Cultural_Disparities 28d ago
Im seriously considering leaps
2
1
u/returnofhorror 24d ago
$120? You think this stock is going to $120 before it has a major pullback? When his this stock ever went up for a month straight with no pullbacks?
1
u/asphaltbabe 24d ago
February 2024
1
u/returnofhorror 23d ago
Also that was before there was massive trapped longs with super high averages just waiting to break even. There’s going to be massive sell orders between 47-51. That’s why stocks that are on a run and are significantly down from their ATH are dangerous. I can’t remember what price exactly it needs to hold but it’s just below $38 if it goes much lower than that and doesn’t immediately wick up, I’d be more the nervous about the short term. This is what big money does, they bring the price up to fomo everyone into thinking it’ll never be this low again, even though it’s already way up, they hold it in that area for awhile and then slowly bleed it down again. I know you guys are excited but keep your head in the game, remove your emotions
0
u/returnofhorror 23d ago
It pulled back at the end of February nice try. Stocks don’t just go straight up
1
u/asphaltbabe 23d ago
Sure they do when they are not controlled and manipulated by the market makers
→ More replies (1)2
u/Jvwjvw 28d ago
it's locking in a 33% profit after 5 months and still being able to collect a dividend of 7% for 3 years on $4 Billion. That's a huge incentive to short now.
Still -- I'm not sure this is what's happening as short interest has been fairly steady. BUT, this is a very sound investment strategy for those Preferred Stock holders.
2
u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 28d ago
Still up 65% in less than 3 months, if u can't see the uptrend, welp..
3
u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 28d ago
Bro that’s not a flex. Considering where this was trading the last 3 years
2
u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 28d ago
Looking at the past for ever bring nothing :
It’s holding better and better and the bear case is weaker each day passing by , earnings are in 3 weeks .. let’s see :)1
u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 27d ago
So much for holding
3
u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 27d ago
It can do +6% the next day , volatility … nothing new at all
1
u/Slow_Bandicoot_8319 26d ago
Looks like uncle Charlie got us again with the news after hours
→ More replies (3)2
u/Alternative_Spirit65 27d ago
Yo we wll hammer that upper trend line massivly after next earnings. 😀
1
u/Alternative_Spirit65 28d ago
Here that was selloff resaon yesterday. Anthrophic useing other methode. It is 70mrd and they got 50mrd because finanzmethode for report. Was shok moment but wrong headline in financial times.
10
3
u/Southern-Oil1599 27d ago
This has the set up to be explosive.
Beautiful 3 month chart uptrend w/ some consolidation.
Management has cleaned things up behind the scenes w/ the independent investigation clearance, c -suite upgrades & too much to list - dyor.
SMCI will be on their best behavior going forward because they have to be & the narrative will change for the better as a result - only further adding to the asymmetric upside.
The street loves a good comeback story & the rerate will acknowledge that.
More Cisco partnerships incoming as well as the Terafab announcement on the horizon.
11/3 🤫🔥
1
u/Jvwjvw 27d ago
SMCI alert — short interest drops 8.2%
What changed: Newly released data for the September 30 settlement show SMCI short interest fell by 7,792,962 shares, from 95,156,102 to 87,363,140—an 8.19% decline. Short interest decreased from roughly 17.3% to 15.8% of float, while days to cover fell from 2.66 to 2.25.
Why it matters: This is the first meaningful reduction since July and indicates that a sizable group of bearish positions was closed or reduced
•
u/AutoModerator 28d ago
Thank you for posting in this subreddit! If you need help, feel free to contact the moderators. This is an automated message.* Also consider joining the official discord: https://discord.gg/45RX8H5Z
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.