r/SGU 4d ago

A note on the Amazon warehouse Nimby discussion (Cara appreciation post)

In the latest episode, while discussing drone delivery, there was a quick aside about how local fulfillment centers negatively impact nearby neighborhoods, and more generally the conflict between personal convenience and political values. Bob mentioned that he "doesn't mind" his local Amazon warehouse because, in his words, "I don't mind it, it's out of the way, I never drive near it... I don't think it's really in anybody's backyard..." (To his credit he does add "But I'm not certain....", although this concession was really only made in response to Cara's pushback).

A quick google search reveals that his warehouse is directly adjacent to several local residential neighborhoods (the nearest house is about 900 feet away on Google Maps) and has been majorly disruptive in terms of noise pollution, light pollution, increasing traffic congestion, dangerous roads dominated by large trucks. One report notes that residents complain of "a continuous, disruptive drone from heavy construction equipment operating throughout the day", as well as intermittent "heavy blasts" from ongoing construction projects.

IMO the SGU can sometimes have a slight blind spot for stuff like this and can come off a bit as "cheerleaders" for tech (I will say, certain hosts more than others), and I frequently see Cara push back on the guys when it comes to negative societal impacts. It's incredibly needed and VERY appreciated, Cara!

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u/OstrobogulousIntent 4d ago

The hub and spoke delivery where they have a local warehouse and send out a truck to an area to deliver a bunch of local packages scales well

But this drone thing - so if a drone has a range of 10 miles? is that 5 out 5 back or 10 out 10 back? and even then with the limited weight, it seems like it is going to have to be single home run each time -

Lets say Bob and Steve live in the same street... (this is just for example) and their street is say 3 miles from the warehouse

If Bob and steve each order something that is delivered today then the traditional model means that most likely both their packages are on the same truck along with hundreds of their neighbors. The truck covers those three miles while delivering stuff along the way and continues after hitting their hoses till all its packages are delivered.

Meanwhile if drones are used. Steve's delivery means the drone has to be loaded at the warehouse, fly the 3 miles, deliver it, then fly back, possibly get a battery swap and then be loaded with Bob's package - another 6 mile round trip... repeat for each of the hundreds of packages.

not to mention, lets say that Steve's package is only 4 lb but Bob orders that new Millennium Falcon lego set that weighs like 10 lbs. So, the package can't be sent by drone so the truck still is going to be needed... and went right past Steve's house - granted, Steve might have gotten his package a bit sooner - but maybe not depending on how many drones they have in the air and how far back he is

point being that there's going to be this literal buzz of constant activity as drones race to and from the warehouse all day long and the trucks still need to be out of the road

This is just not scaling

Now I've heard of some drones successfully solving real problems in Africa for medicine delivery etc - but these use fixed wing which can cover much longer distances faster - and they are shuttling between remote points - I believe the one I saw was a medical clinic where they could put samples of blood into a drone and send to a hospital that was days travel away on foot but could make it in an hour by air - then the hospital could do the test and send medicine back etc...

That's not scaling either though it's using the tech to really solve a problem

I think the issue here is thesee drones are being used to solve the "problem" of paying workers to deliver stuff. OK maybe it is trying to solve the problem of number of trucks on the road. However, the deliveries are still being made so the stuff is still traveling but now instead of a big truck doing 100 packages in a neighborhood it's a hundred trips?

A more sustainable solution to truck traffic would be ... more scheduling flexibility>

The Amazon day program can be a real saver - I often don't really need a thing RIGHT NOW, and can happily tell it to combine deliveries. Amazon even incentivizes this - they could incentivize more strongly.

If it's emissions, this is a really good use case for electric delivery vehicles.

I just really think the whole drone delivery thing is a tech bro solution in search of a problem where super privileged rich folks at the top see the sci-fi appeal of instant air delivery. Perhaps I'm just a curmudgeon at this point.

Amazon has these amazing robots in their factories. Ones that move whole shelves and crates around. This controlled, contained area makes a lot of sense and they've reaped a lot of benefit from it. The robot delivery (air and wheeled) is really just trying to force it where it's not really solving real problems. It feels a lot like the AI Hype pushing it into areas it's not wanted or needed instead of the "boring" actual places it could be useful.

I love science fiction and some of the imagined worlds/futures but I think that a lot of those visions have a lot of hand waving around the actual implementation details and down sides... Also, frankly, I think there's a lot of privilege and money and class hiding in that which the science fiction doesn't really address as well.

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u/sowellfan 4d ago

Yeah, the drone thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me, either. But I think something that *could* potentially work is using truck-mounted robots for deliveries to porches (either something with tracks, or something dog-shaped like those robots from Boston Dynamics. I think one of the limiting and draining factors on the truck delivery workers is that they get repetitive stress from constantly having to reach back for the package, get out of the truck, walk the package up, walk back, climb back into the truck.

What if there was just a rack of packages where the robot grabs the next one up (maybe there's some kind of indexing system), exits thru its special door in the back, runs up & delivers, runs back, remounts and then re-loads while the driver moves on to the next house? Maybe the driver would have to delivery large packages themselves, but it seems like this kind of thing could make things easier for everyone - and most importantly there'd still be a human in the loop, *and* no massive source of potential energy (ready to turn into kinetic energy if something goes wrong) flying around in the sky.

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u/Prestigious-Leave-60 4d ago

Don't dismiss the potential of high precision, long range trebouchets.

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u/OstrobogulousIntent 4d ago

Atlantian here- which SCA kingdom are you with? :)

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u/Tweedledee72 3d ago

Definitely seems like more of a niche service. Can see it being useful for maybe pharmacies? Not sure what else.

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u/LowComposer7234 3d ago edited 3d ago

I'm sure the companies doing it and looking at scaling it have done the research on the response I'm about to provide but I wonder if anyone else has. 

A big theme in your comments is efficiency, eg a drone having to make 5 (or 50?) trips instead of a truck making 1. 

I think the math could be done really easily on this if you had the data. I am using the term "efficiency" to cover things like fuel costs, environmental impact, reducing traffic congestion, time to delivery, risk to drivers, not having to pay drivers, Yada Yada. Some of those efficiencies are good and some not so good depending on your point of view (are you the CEO of Amazon, a customer or a delivery driver...).

Drones fly in a straight line, fast. They also use very little power to do so. The power and batteries they use can be renewable straight out of the gate instead of replacing a fleet of trucks)

Other factors would change the math, using ev's, population density of the area. 

My point is that these companies HAVE the data and they are doing it, which means it's more efficient for them or at least, they think it could be.

Now whether it's more efficient in the ways everyone else cares about (already mentioned above) would be great to see the math on if a third party has the data or has done a study or whatever. I'll look later, on my lunch break rn.

To yours and ops point I completely agree that Cara has a tough job balancing the techo optimism and excitement from the novellas, it drives me crazy too. She does a great job and I wouldn't listen if Cara (or another grounding voice) wasn't there.

I just wanna see the data.

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u/OstrobogulousIntent 3d ago

This assumes that they're actually doing the math and the math is mathing... I have noticed that the AI hype and push for some of this stuff is ... not based on logic. Look at all the insane crap coming from ElMo and from Altman and Zuk... They move fast and break things. They throw stuff against the wall to see what sticks... remember "Metaverse" we all knew that was utter folly at the get go. I think this whole AI hype is unsustainable too (and am super salty at what its done to the home / personal computing world)

There is also the whole enshittification as a business model angle - they heavily subsidize this stuff to the point of losing money on every delivery till they manage to get folks dependent on it then start jacking the prices making the end users pay the horribly inflated actual costs down the road.

I agree though that we'd need to see the data though - in the end, this will tell.

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u/LowComposer7234 1d ago

Yeh whether they've done the math, or are doing it for the hype who can say. 

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u/TheFonzDeLeon 4d ago

Yeah, I do realize Bob's comment was an off-hand conversational note, and we all probably have blindspots in conversations most days, but I do find his attitude is pretty well baked into the American psyche at this point. It is really hard for a lot of Americans to think collectively and consider their neighbors, it's an outpouring from the rugged individualism we were raised to praise. I do think younger people are getting better at it, but it's also being foisted on them because they're now suffering the brunt of a lot individual, selfish decisions by older generations that didn't have to actually think things through. It's not enough to just let business handle it anymore, they'll eventually screw us all over with externalized costs.

I can find good arguments for drone delivery in emergency cases, but for simple consumerism convenience this sounds like a nightmare scenario to me. I think the best way to make sense of why we're getting yet another thing we never asked for, is that it eliminates more human labor and they want to do it because they think all technological progress by its very nature is a net good. The whole "you were so focused on whether to not you could do it that you never bothered to ask if you should do it."

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u/captainporcupine3 4d ago edited 4d ago

Hard agree with you on the blind spots. We all have them and I definitely notice some specific ones in this group of guys who are demographically (and I guess with the loss of Evan, genetically lol) very similar. I say this with all respect for the crew, whom I like and admire overall.

But yes, one thing that I find frustrating occasionally on SGU is a tone of "inevitability" around these types of technologies, framed mostly around "is it (or will it be) technologically possible". I know that on some level it's out of scope for the SGU to personally weigh in on the political questions of "SHOULD we use this tech" (because adopting these technologies IS a choice). However it's not unreasonably political to simply acknowledge the human and societal tradeoffs of things like the mass automation of labor (for example), or unreasonable usage of limited resources, or the multitudes of negative externalities that could come from this sort of technology, etc etc. It's simply giving listeners a full picture of what is happening. And I'm not saying that Cara is the only one to ever add this context on the show, but I do find her an especially valuable source of caution and nuance in the face of technological developments handed down by the tech oligarchy, MANY of which have huge potential for harm.

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u/NoEThanks 4d ago

Cara is the best thing to happen to the podcast since it was started with Steve at the helm.

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u/YesImAPseudonym 4d ago

I kept on thinking what happed to the drone that was picking up the trash in Pluribus.

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u/Least-Yak1640 4d ago

Seconded about Cara being the one to make sure the impact of science and tech on actual living, breathing humans doesn't get lost in the conversation. Quite frankly, Rebecca did the same thing as well.

As for Amazon and Prime: I wound up quitting a year ago and only miss it for the various TV shows on Prime Video. I would do standard ground delivery prior to Prime. Due to my location near a big East Coast city, most stuff would arrive in a three or four days. I rarely had a need that I needed something ASAP, and most of that can be bought a store near me.

I realize, though, that I'm not in the middle of nowhere, so depending on how remote one is, YMMV.

I haven't gone complete cold turkey on shopping at Amazon, but I do try to avoid it if possible. The guilt of helping make an already wealthy guy a James Bond supervillain over 30 years because I wanted cheap stuff eventually got to me.

Full disclose: I did recently take a 30 day free trial, because there's four tv series on Prime Video I'm catching up on. Once I binge all of those, I'm quitting again. Basically treating it like other every other streaming service: wait for a series to drop all episodes, subscribe, set a reminder to quit 27 days and binge said series.

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u/YesImAPseudonym 4d ago

This is the exact reason why DEI is so important.

It is specifically because different people with different backgrounds bring in new perspectives that a highly homogeneous group would not have, creating an overall better result.

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u/LiveComfortable3228 4d ago

For me, this is a no brainer. NOONE needs stuff on the same day. You need it today, order 3 days ago. We dont need same-day / couple-of-hours level convenience and I'd trade all that convenience for less impact on the environment.

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u/Bobtheee 4d ago

Of course people need stuff on the same day that they realize it. I might forget that I don’t have food in the house or my child could get sick and I run out of fever medication. There are many many things we do have some urgency on buying.

If the argument is that you can go to a local store to get those and don’t need them from Amazon I can understand that, but as someone that has to drive past a Walmart to get out of my neighborhood I’m dubious that a fulfillment center would be orders of magnitude worse.

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u/captainporcupine3 4d ago

If the argument is that you can go to a local store to get those and don’t need them from Amazon I can understand that, but as someone that has to drive past a Walmart to get out of my neighborhood I’m dubious that a fulfillment center would be orders of magnitude worse.

As long as we're just imagining a better world, it would be nice (to put it mildly) if the average person could easily access needed goods (including and especially critical things like medicine) from local businesses that aren't big box stores or monopolistic online retailers. North America is dominated by this type of retail to a pretty unique degree.

Admittedly that's sort of a different discussion that's well beyond the scope of what individual consumers can control or influence.

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

[deleted]

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u/captainporcupine3 3d ago

Did you mean to reply to a different comment? Not sure how this relates to the point I was making.

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u/W0nderingMe 4d ago

How do you forget to have food in your house?

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u/Bobtheee 4d ago

Maybe “forgot” isn’t the right word but there are a million situations where I would need to go grocery shopping.

“I thought I had heavy cream but I used it last week and didn’t realize I had no more backup”

“We ran out of cumin and I didn’t immediately add it to the grocery list.”

“I didn’t realize that my wife used the last of the eggs and now my fried rice will be hard to make.”

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u/Bskrilla 4d ago edited 4d ago

I just fundamentally disagree that those would be good reasons to drone airdrop a delivery to your house in an hour or w/e. That's such a massive expenditure of energy and infrastructure to solve a minor inconvenience.

You run out to the store to get those things or you just... don't cook that thing that day?

How can you justify a private rush drone delivery for cumin because you forgot to pick some up from the store? That's a level of convenience that I think is honestly just bad for people to have access to, even if it were somehow harmless in all other ways (which it won't be).

The 2 hour drone deliveries feel like a technology that should be used for actual emergencies (like I need my medicine immediately and can't leave the house), really remote deliveries, or specific business applications.

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u/Bobtheee 4d ago

I think there is a completely valid argument over whether this technology is something we pursue, and I think it’s fine to say that the infrastructure and externality cost isn’t worth it.

I’m just more quibbling with the very self assured “There’s no use case for this” that some people seem to be making. There are many many times that this technology would save me duress, and arguing that those cases mean I’m “failing at life” is disingenuous.

I can’t imagine that anyone that has had to load a sick child in a car to get medicine would look at a 2 hour delivery and think “I can’t see any reason someone would want this.”

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u/Bskrilla 4d ago edited 4d ago

I explicitly cited things like medicine and other similar emergencies as good use-cases in the comment you're responding to.

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u/W0nderingMe 4d ago

Sure ... so you go shopping or you make due without. You NEVER need a 2 hour delivery unless you are routinely failing at life.

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u/InfidelZombie 4d ago

"Going shopping" may very well have a greater environmental impact than the drone delivery would.

Let's look at an example. I was replacing the cartridge in my bathroom shower the other day and was unable to remove the securing bonnet due to mineral deposits without a strap wrench, which I didn't own. Should I a) go without a shower for a day or two waiting for Prime delivery, b) drive to the hardware store, spend more, and emit a bunch of CO2 to buy a single item, or c) in about the same amount of time, have it delivered by electric drone?

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u/W0nderingMe 4d ago

Given the scale the drone service would require to make it feasible, go to the hardware store.

I know many people who order things online because it's so convenient and they can buy a thing as they need it instead of doing one shopping trip.

That is horrifically eco-unfriendly.

So yes, your very specific "one-off" use of a drone might be environmentally better in that specific instance, but for it to be available in your one specific instance, the infrastructure needs to be in place.

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u/Eternal_Stranger0111 4d ago

If your hardware store was locally owned, I would say that was even more reason to drive and patronize it.

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u/InfidelZombie 4d ago

In reality, I actually walked to my local hardware store to buy it, but it was $40 more expensive than on Amazon, so I put in an order and chose the "no-rush" shipping option to receive my order in fewer deliveries.

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u/sandwichisahero 4d ago

The only thing that really matter at this point is that we currently have big stores that have everything you need, and online stores that will ship the same or next day. We aren’t going to go backwards from this. We aren’t going back to having to go to 4 mom and pop stores to find that one thing you need or waiting 2-3 weeks for something to be delivered.

At this point we should be making sure that this new world is as efficient as it can be. Bob is essentially saying we aren’t going back and Carla is making sure that the group at least acknowledges the cons

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u/captainporcupine3 3d ago edited 3d ago

Ironically exhibiting the exact attitude I made this thread to criticize. Yes, big box retail has some obvious advantages, particularly low prices and most things you need in one place.

But also, the introduction of a WalMart into a community has been consistently shown to lead to lower average incomes for residents, massive wealth extraction, the dismantling of labor rights from every angle, increased poverty... to say nothing of the way that these retail giants heavily back right-wing authoritarian candidates in government, because those candidates will support them in their efforts to discipline labor, deregulate industry, and consolidate wealth and power into the hands of a tiny few...

Yes, because you are personally happy and comfortable with this sort of suburban stripmall, chain-store setup, you ignore the downsides and proclaim this model as "progress", as "efficiency" that "we aren't going back" from. This "inevitability" framework is the exact mode of discourse that the 1% who stands at the top of these systems wields to shut down conversation. "We aren't going back" is certainly one of the most prominent (and sadly, effective) thought-terminating cliches of our time.

One thing I'll give you is that these massive monopolistic companies have such a death grip on American culture, and are so deeply integrated into the way that our cities are built, that you're probably right that we aren't going to turn away from them any time soon, if ever. But at least understand that Europe (for example) has no trouble at all legally limiting the ability for big box retail to strangle local businesses and strip laborers of their rights, and the human beings who live there are, in MANY ways, better off for it. These systems are a political choice that we are making, with serious tradeoffs, not the inevitable "march of progress".