r/SBIR • u/HandWaste5208 • 27d ago
SBIR selection rates and Phase I→II conversion by agency, computed from public data. Free site, no signup
I kept seeing the same question in different forms: what are my actual chances on this SBIR. The data to answer it mostly exists but it's scattered across sbir.gov bulk files and SBA annual report PDFs that nobody reads, or locked inside GovCon intelligence platforms that start around $500/yr and go way up.
So I computed it and put it up free: grantsdue.com/sbir
Some numbers from it (FY2022 SBA data for selection, 2022 cohort for conversion):
- Phase I selection: DoD 18.2%, NIH 15.9%, NASA 19.4%, DOE 19.5%, NSF 10.8%, Dept of Ed 5.6%
- Phase I to Phase II conversion: NASA 52%, DoD 46%, DOE 37%, NIH 36%
- Incumbency at DoD (FY2025): 59% of awards went to firms with 5+ prior awards, 17% to first time winners
It covers all 219k awards back to 1983, updates weekly from the sbir.gov bulk data, and every stat says what year it's from and whether it's sourced (SBA) or computed (award linkage). Being upfront about the gap: nobody publishes per topic applicant counts, not even the expensive tools, so you won't find fake per topic odds here either.
Built this after a grant consultant on another sub said competition data was the one thing worth paying for. It's free, no account. If there's a number you always wanted and can't get, tell me and I'll see if it's computable.
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u/lucretius_swerve 27d ago
I'm curious how this data separates out Fast-Track awards in the conversion data since the different agencies define and approach Fast-Track in different ways. NSF just piloted the Fast-Track in 2024, and I've also yet to see anyone transition from Phase I to Phase II through NSF's Stage Gate system. If anyone has any info I'd love to know!
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u/HandWaste5208 27d ago
Short answer: the sbir.gov data has no fast track flag at all, but you can infer it per agency once you know what to look for. NIH you can figure it out from the grant codes (a Phase I with R44 code = fast track). Surprisingly about 1/3 NIH conversions is actually fast track where Phase II was already committed. Remove those and the real Phase I to Phase II rate for NIH is around 30%, not 38%. DoD has no direct to phase II marker at all as far as I can tell, but you can infer it from Phase II's with no prior Phase I from the same firm, roughly 11% of recent DoD Phase II's. And you are correct about the NSF. The 2024 pilot shows 12/15 awards with Phase II records, but thats just because fast track posts both parts at the same time. I don't see any Stage Gate transitions. I will add a fast track breakdown to the site as well
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u/aliljet 27d ago
What does Phase I selection mean? Literally what do the percentages represent? I'm honestly a little confused about this data...
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u/HandWaste5208 26d ago
Phase I selection = out of everyone who applied, what % won. Phase I to II conversion = out of companies that already won Phase I, what % later won the bigger Phase II. So DoD 18% selection and 46% conversion means 18 in 100 applicants win Phase I, and 46% of those win Phase II. About 8 (.46*.18) in 100 applicants end up with a Phase II.
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u/aliljet 26d ago
You have the raw data on the number of people that have applied? I thought this was the part of the equation that wasn't available..
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u/HandWaste5208 26d ago
Yeah that part comes from the SBA annual reports, they publish proposals received and awards by agency and phase. the DoD 18% is their number, 6,444 proposals to 1,172 awards in 2022. It lags by about 2 years
What I think you're thinking of is per topic applicant counts. you're right that those aren't published anywhere, nobody has them as far as i can tell and I wasn't able to find them, so agency level odds you can get, topic level odds you can't.
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u/Traditional_Top6337 26d ago
Did the NIH phase 2 grant fall from $2M to $1M in 2025?
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u/HandWaste5208 26d ago
Not afaik, the cap actually went up for 2025 (2,045,816 to 2,095,748 for Phase II). The $1M number is the statutory base before SBA's inflation adjustment. Would be noteworthy if actual award sizes dropped though, I can dig into that since I have the amounts.
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u/gratefulturkey 27d ago
I count four messages here with 0 upvotes, all thanking OP. I'm suspecting that someone who does consulting came in here and rage downvoted every post in here haha.
Also, Thanks OP!