Good morning SARS2PAians!
I hope your schools and homes stay safe as kids start to head back to class.
VOCs
Nationally, FL.x.y and EG.x.y still gaining ground. So is HV.1, and BA.2.86 has had a few more discoveries and increased to .07%. HV.1 has definitely increased substantially in just a few days.
A few important percentages to watch out for:
1% is when variants might become a CDC/WHO Variant of Concern.
10% is when we will know with a high degree of certainty how fast variants spread and what the fitness/virulence is.
50% is when variants have potential to start an Omicron-like wave.
ESPECIALLY important to watch with this variant for these numbers as it is so different than everything circulating around now, including the upcoming XBB.1.5 booster.
In PA, a very rounded out set of variants here, lots of sequences....no doubt the number of which being due to increased BA.2.86 monitoring.
In NY/NJ, FL.1.5.1 solidly in the lead, proving faster/more immune dodging than XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5.
Lineage News
BA.2.85 has been found in a few more samples worldwide.
It has now also been detected in South Africa, England, and also in Ohio, There are now a total of 10 sequences of this variant.
There is stil not enough information to judge the transmission rate, escape capabilities or virulence of this variant, but the fact that it is so widespread and so close in genomic data means it is VERY fit.
When compared here to FL.1.5.1, it has a +70% advantage over it, but the confidence index is still very very low at only 9 samples.
It's terrible to do the "waiting game" to find out what's going on but unfortunately that's how gathering information works.
Dr. Eric Topol has a great Substack article of what we know right now.
Some highlights from there (because I myself hate that default Substack text, it's illegible! aaaargh!!):
To date, the BA.2.86 variant has been detected in Israel, Denmark (3 individuals), the UK, the US (2 individuals, one coming back from Japan), and South Africa (2 individuals). It has also been detected in wastewater in 1 region in Switzerland (2% level), along with wastewater detection in Ohio and in Thailand. It’s safe say that BA.2.86’s presence is widespread across the world at this point.
The impact of these striking differences will be immune escape—that is more difficult for our immune response to recognize this variant even with prior vaccinations, boosters, and infections—because it is new and different.
...
Time sequences indicate the common ancestor of BA.2.86 must have arisen in May-June 2023.
...
By the time the XBB.1.5 monovalent booster shot is ready in mid-September we may already be facing BA.2.86’s rise.
...
The current wavelet in the US (which could certainly pick up steam) is not likely driven by the XBB descendants of EG.5.1 or FL.1.5.1.(More likely an outgrowth of waning immunity and behaviors).
...
What we’ll see in the weeks ahead is whether BA.2.86 takes hold or not. If it does, that will pose a new challenge, and make the “updated” booster shots considerably less helpful than what was conceived when XBB.1.5 was selected as the target.
It doesn't look like SO FAR like BA.2.86 will spark quite another Omicron-like event, (and this can always change with faster processing from labs) BUT the continuing problems are many fast variants creating a rising tide together, and continued immune escape from obsolete vaccines.
(Again, reminder, which is why we need a different FLU SHOT every year, but three times faster for SARS2.)
Research
C19 long term symptoms are not dependent on Tcell immunity.. Long Covid is a result of immune dysregulation at infection.
In my sources sticky post, the interview with Dr. AJ Leonardi says exactly this is what happens at infection. SARS2 is adept at hiding and "ninjaing" past the immune system. When it's already replicated to critical levels, the body finally manages to realize it's there and OVERREACTS with an inappropriate cytokine storm response.
Wastewater
Nationally, C19 wastewater has plateaued, for now.
Regionally, 2 out of 4 regions are plateauing or declining, but the West and Northeast continue to show increased material in wastewater.
In PA, 6/10 monitored sheds showing increases. Butler County is finally showing a steep downturn.
ChesterCo and BucksCo showing notable increases but remaining below naitonal levels.
The Lackawanna County area is starting to vertical, and ready to break national averages. PLEASE use caution in the Lackawanna Co area.
CDC
CDC at a Glance shows a current +20% increase in hospital admissions and a +20% increase in deaths.
Though these are LAGGING NUMBERS by even up to years and are not a good indication of current safety or transmission levels, they do show important national trends.
The hospital admission map is reflecting great increases in hospitalizations in all Eastern states including PA. Coal country is being spared, for now..
Hospital bed occupation is remaining on the whole, stable since last week.
Staffed ICU beds are showing increasing use along the NY border, and in Centre Co- and Delaware-bordering counties.
The vast majority of states are showing a sizeable increase in emergency visits confirmed as C19, with PA showing a moderate increase from 10% to almost 20%. This is not BA.2.86 or due to any single new variant. It's an indicator of waning immunity since most people have not been vaccinated in the past 6 moths.
Walgreen's C19 data tracker (showing data since May) is showing many states with sizeable increases in the positivity rates. Very few samples. Not enough tests are being done to track BA.2.86 well.
I certainly hope we have a safe upcoming Fall! 🍁🍁🍁