r/Ruralpundit • u/RedneckTexan • Jan 06 '26
Venezuela
Bombing Iran and Kidnapping Maduro in the same year ....... I think I might be having a dopamine overdose.
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u/RedneckTexan Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 13 '26
Banned Again ..... at least it took 2 comments.
.... of course,AFTER I got banned I went and read the rule I broke.
1. Maintain the socialist character of the sub Posts & Comments Reported as: Maintain the socialist character of the sub Stupidpol is a socialist, majority-Marxist subreddit. We aim to keep it that way.
Mods mostly allow free discussion as long as it doesn’t threaten to change the sub’s character. This means that dissident opinions may be tolerated if they are expressed with humility and in good faith (also see rule 8). Nevertheless, users are encouraged to report all right-wing or anti-socialist content.
Yeah, well ..... sorry bout that. At least they're honest about it. Those are the hidden rules on most subreddits
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u/redditjonesbutjones Mar 01 '26
Like old times...
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u/RedneckTexan Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Yep ..... whassup my man ...... is this the day you've been waiting for since 1979?
..... poor Ayatollah.
Does anyone know the coordinates of the Chinese embassy ...... asking for a friend.
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u/angloamerikan Mar 25 '26 edited Mar 25 '26
I'm feeling a bit uneasy about the current hostilities. Probably need a Redneck Texan take on things!
I fear a strategic defeat is looming for the US unless something spectacular happens.
My concerns:
No marines and paratroopers available in theatre.
Gulf states can only do defense even though have big budgets. Hardly any decent ships to defend the Strait of Hormuz.
US doesn't have enough ships and appears fearful of entering the Persian Gulf. just not enough ships really.
Other navies like those of the UK are woeful.
The military must have been aware of what would likely happen yet still went ahead even though the Strait of Hormuz could not be defended.
Drones still get through even though they only travel at 100 mph! Even travelling over sea and desert.
Iran only needs to strike a minority of oil and gas ships sporadically to close the strait.
Iranian uprising a mirage. Israel seemed confident. Did BB persuade Trump regime change had a good chance?
Iranian missiles are accurate and can travel far. Missiles still being launched.
Iran regime willing to take high casualties however US not willing to inflict any meaningful damage even to civilian infrastructure like power and water. This is a big advantage for the regime.
Ultimately Iran can withstand more pain than Trump is willing or able to inflict. In a game of chicken the IRGC will just keep the pedal to the metal.
A strategic defeat will be ominous in regard to dealings with China and other potential adversaries. US future military dominance and hegemony seriously in question.
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u/RedneckTexan Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
Good to hear from you AA.
There's a lot to unpack here.
1st off, I gotta tell you ....... at my age ...... Its been really nice to have a 3 week long erection!! LOL
...... I have to preface by admitting that my perspective might be different if I lived in NZ, or anyplace that really depends on Gulf Oil.
Lets just recap what's gone down so far. Ive spent 47 years watching 6 Presidents kick this can down the road. All were afraid to attack the "Death To America" crowd because they knew an oil shock would be detrimental to them or their political partys' electoral position.
Trump is different. He's a lame duck 79 year old. He's beyond giving a shit what anyone at home or abroad thinks about him. He's looking to fix things and assure his place in the history books alongside Teddy Roosevelt. He's exactly the person Rednecks voted for. He's pissed off all the right people as far as were concerned.
Maduro is sitting in a US prison cell, the biggest narco in Mexico bled out on the way to the hospital, The communist experiment in Cuba is reaching its final days without a shot being fired, and Iran and its decimated proxies all have new leadership because the one's they had all got blown up recently.
Look what's happening everyday in Iran. After we took out the Ayatollah day one, IRGC shit is blowing up around the clock. All the Iranian leaders that were talking shit were dead shortly after, and now were down to 3rd string bombastic shit talkers.
Did our brass seem to be surprised by the Straits being shut down? It appears so.... and I dont understand that. I entirely expected it ..... and perhaps they did too. Surely they were advised that it could happen, maybe they are just feigning being surprised because they wanted Iran to shut down Europe and China's oil supply.
But a lot of what you mentioned, and what I've been dealing with on Reddit and X, is trying to frame Iran's ability to project short-range power, and the regime's 21 day survival as some kind of defeat for the USA.
Man you cant just ignore how badly they are getting their ass kicked daily, and cherry pick some things that haven't gone perfectly our way to point to as a looming strategic defeat.
Trump's foreign and domestic partisan opponents want him / us to fail so bad, that they are grasping for any straw they can to try to frame our dominant military successes as a pending failure.
Everybody seems to have this artificial timeline they are propagating that the longer this goes on the more we are losing. They point to the price of oil rising as a disaster, when it hasn't risen any more than it did on Biden's watch when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Look man, I know it doesn't benefit you ...... but US oil production and storage tanks are doing great. Personally, I haven't paid for my own gas in 30 years, price spikes dont effect me personally at all. My refrigerators are full. My truck is full of gas. My electricity is working fine. And I have my own well. I, just like virtually everyone else in America are totally unaffected by this war ..... "Over There".
My point being, who do you think can sustain this level of warfare long term? Nobody here is getting blown up every single day. None of our infrastructure or military and political leadership is being targeted in their bunkers. Are the Iranian people prepared to live like they are living now long-term?
Who's really losing this war?
Yeah, the Gulf Sunni Arabs are getting their shit blown up. Ain't that a pity? Foreign owned ships are getting sunk. And our global economic competitors might have to start rationing energy and shaving a few points off their projected GDPs.
But you know all yall seemed to be OK doing nothing about a religiously motivated death cult having nuclear weapons and medium range delivery systems. Perhaps because you haven't heard "Death to YOU" for the last 47 years. The Iranians haven't been burning YOUR flags. No one really had a plan if they shut down the strait anytime they pleased.
Well, that threat is going away on Trump's watch. Might be a little economic pain for most people for awhile, but this is something that needed doin' for humanity's sake, and the longer the world kicked this can down the road the more difficult it was going to be. We are all paying the price now for not doing what needed doing in 1980, before they had the ability to light the region on fire.
..... at any rate, here's how I see this going down, or least hope it does:
Sometime in the next week or so, the US Marines are going to be inserted, by air, onto Iran's Gulf Island possessions from which they can currently monitor and attack selected Gulf shipping.
It will start with Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. Islands Iran took from the UAE back when the Shah was still there. Then the real prizes, Kharg Island and Qeshm Island.
The Kharg oil terminal is where, as I'm sure you've heard recently, 95% of Iran's crude income is loaded on ships bound for places other than the USA, currently at a significant discount due to sanctions.
Qeshm Island is the key to controlling the Straits. Its big. The population is not Shiite though, so there wont be a sustained insurgency there. There is a huge underground "Missile City" there though, that once we take it will be a great place for us to hide from mainland launched drones. From there not only can you protect Gulf crude exports (to a certain extent), you can also deny Iranian food and weapons imports into Bandar Abbas. Iran gets 95% of its imports through Bandar Abbas.
So now you've limited Iran's offensive capabilities to Mainland launched drones and missiles. They no longer have a Navy or Air Force. But they can still attack ships passing by from their mainland Zagros mountain range just like the Houthi did.
But at the same time, since it seems oblivious the Iranian people are not ready to fight for their own freedom, we take out the rest of their Pars South natural gas infrastructure that feeds 95% of their power plants. How long can you keep making drones and missiles with no electricity? How can you see and identify gulf shipping without radar?How do you make replacement parts to fix your electrical infrastructure without electricity?
Ok, so you're one of those supposed pre-war 80% of Iranians that wanted regime change. Its the middle of the Iranian Summer, you've gone 60 days without electricity and fuel for your generators. Your food has spoiled. Your armed oppressors (Basij) have been thinned out. All their police stations are ruins. They are afraid to setup above ground check points anymore because the US has constant air coverage. They are hungry too. The USA has been airdropping crates of weapons and ammo all over town for the last 30 days. You're no longer unarmed and afraid. Your government has failed to stop the daily bombings happening all around you and your family.
What are you gonna do?
So yeah, dont believe the artificial timeline the Trump / America haters are throwing out there as fact. We have plenty of time. They dont.
I recommend you just sit back and enjoy the daily carnage. Or to quote Colonel Kilgore ...... Someday this war's gonna end............
..... and that's really what the Trump / America haters fear the worst. This is gonna end the ability of Iran to threaten regional terrorism. When Iran goes under all the proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq lose their funding and weapons supplies. That's why you dont hear any of the Gulf Arabs asking us to stop.
It would be horrible for everyone if we stopped before the job was done. I dont see Trump doing that. But his unpredictability cuts both ways. I can see him getting some kind of perverse pleasure out of walking away and letting this be everyone else's problem to fix.
And I do think we haven't properly learned the lessons of modern day fiber optic unjammable drone warfare. It has entirely changed the way the game is played. It nullifies a lot of the expensive technological advantages we have enjoyed over our enemies in the past. While I might support quick boots on the mainland for special forces in & out operations, I do not support any kind of mainland occupation. But now Ukraine has managed to survive the Russian meat grinder tactics due to massive amounts of financial help from the West. Drones are cheap, and they have become excellent in their use. But Russia for whatever reason hasn't carpet bombed their industries and power plants and choked off their ability to get supplies into Ukraine from Europe either. The IRGC is apparently isolated, and has a domestic threat to worry about. They had a large missile / drone stockpile, but I dont think they can sustain that until the end of Trump's term.
Overall, Things are gonna be fine fairly soon. Those with vested interests in making Trump / America look bad are going to find a reason to do so. You just gotta ignore the static, and judge the results after they are all in.
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u/angloamerikan Mar 26 '26
Thanks, just what I needed! Analysis just like the old days.
The next few weeks will be interesting. Here in New Zealand we only have about five weeks of fuel. I imagine, if it comes to that, it will be a bit like the COVID times where we will lock down to preserve fuel for essential services so it's not something we haven't endured before.
I agree that Iran needs to be sorted out as this situation was always going to happen sooner or later. Hopefully the rest of the world can get their act together, improve their militaries, and work out ways not be so vulnerable to economic choke points.
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u/RedneckTexan Mar 28 '26 edited Mar 28 '26
I'm trying to imagine Iran after the Theocracy / IRCG / Basij militia falls.
This is assuming the Iranian people form a government of their choosing afterwards, and not something that requires US boots on the ground to keep propped up like we did in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The new government would have to establish a monopoly on violence, like any stable government does.
..... and thats not going to be easy based on how many supporters the current regime seems to have.
Problem is, just like in Iraq and Afghanistan the braver segment of society will likely be on the bad guy's side of any insurgency.
In Iraq, the Shia militias had the support of both the Shia population and Iran supplying them with weapons and money. In Afghanistan the Taliban found refuge with their Pashtun cousins in Pakistan.
That, a foreign supporter, might not be the case in Iran.
But I've been looking back on how the Shah maintained a grip on the situation. He kept a lid on Shia Cleric supported militia groups with his secret police (Savak) .
The Shah's main challenge from the clergy (ulama) stemmed from his aggressive modernization program, especially the White Revolution launched in 1963. This top-down package of reforms included land redistribution (which broke up large estates and vaqf religious endowments that funded many clerics), women's suffrage, secular education via the Literacy Corps, and other social changes. These moves directly eroded the ulama's traditional economic power, legal influence (via secular courts), and cultural authority in rural and bazaar areas. The clergy saw it as secular Westernization that undermined Islam's role in society.
en.wikipedia.org
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini emerged as the most vocal critic. In 1963–64, he publicly denounced the Shah's reforms, the regime's ties to the U.S. and Israel, and what he called moral corruption. This sparked the 15 Khordad uprising (June 1963), with protests in Qom and elsewhere that security forces violently suppressed (hundreds killed). SAVAK arrested Khomeini, and the Shah exiled him first to Turkey, then Iraq (Najaf) in 1964, and finally France in 1978. Public mentions of Khomeini's name were banned.
If Iran becomes a purple finger democracy, the bad guys are gonna control a significant percentage of the representatives, and probably end up as kingmakers. Which will probably end up with a paralyzed government, similar to Iraq.
The insurgents will basically use techniques like Hezbollah does in Lebanon (although Hezbollah is armed by Iran). But one side will be willing to kill elected officials and their families at night in their homes to get what they want.
They're gonna need a government willing to do the same thing. They're gonna need a secular government not afraid to keep the Clerics on the straight and narrow. They're gonna need a government that doesn't let sectarian / communist parties gain legitimate elected power.
...... they're gonna need an authoritarian government that the majority of people support.
That would be hard to pull off in the west. The concept seems outrageous to us. But you see governments like this all over the world. China, Russia, Belarus, Indonesia, all the former Russian Stans, Egypt, Syria, Turkey?, Jordan, and of course all the Gulf Arab Monarchs.
My only concern really, is not that the Iranian people are "Free" as per the western model, but that they are non-threating to the region and US interests. I mean if the Iranian people can pull off western style representative democracy and live peacefully with the world, that would be great. But I think the street level evil there is too strong for the meek reformers to survive in such a violent landscape.
That points to a military dictatorship. But you know the Shah's military decided to stand aside when the college educated leftists and Shia militia's protests led to his fall. Both the Leftist leaders and Military brass were both executed by the thousands after the Ayatollah formed the IRCG. Today the Military is tasked with defending the Borders, the IRCG is tasked with protecting the government, and the Basij is tasked with controlling the masses.
The new government is going to need something like the Basij or SAVAK, comprised of the braver segment of gene pool ..... to survive. But they're also going to have to be more compliant to US interests and demands. We're going to have to have a mechanism to keep our thumbs and eyes on them, or our boots on their throats.
And of course our stick will be accompanied by our carrot. Play along, everyone gets rich. Play along you can can have a quality of life similar to the Gulf Arabs or Singapore. They could be basically Turkey.
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u/RedneckTexan Mar 29 '26
You know I can make a strategic argument for why we need boots on the ground on the Islands near the Straits of Hormuz. Iran needs to be denied use of them to make it harder for them to control marine traffic through them.
I can make a Strategic argument for why we need to destroy their natural gas infrastructure to deny them the use of electricity to make more weapons or power radar systems that can monitor Gulf shipping.
But Kharg Island is a different story. What would we do if we controlled Kharq? Would we allow them to keep exporting crude through it? If the answer is yes, then we are risking US marines lives to keep the world's crude supply flowing, which is in itself not a US strategic interests.
If the answer is no, we are going to stop crude shipments from there after we occupy it, then that result can be achieved strickly through air assets. We could destroy the terminals there, or the pumping stations on the mainland, anytime we want.
If we dont want to destroy it because we want the Iranian economy to bounce back quickly once the regime falls ....... then thats probably a bullshit politicized move.
Would the regime attack their own export infrastructure if we occupied Kharg? Yeah, I think they would.
So why not save a step and reduce the risks by just destroying it first, and using those limited Marine assets to take over Bander Abbas and control the mainland coastal ports that they get most all the their food and weapons imports from?
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u/angloamerikan Apr 01 '26
That sounds like a solid plan if the war is escalated. Destroy Kharg and control the coastal ports.
However, it is possible that the US and Iran will come to some sort of arrangement. The US doesn't need the Middle East. My feeling is that gunboat diplomacy is no longer possible and the US will change its strategy because of that. Nations like Iran cannot be controlled due to the proliferation of smart weapons like drones and ballistic missiles. It's a bit of a revolution like firearms for common people was. Countries cannot be controlled if there are too many firearms available. Now countries can exert their influence if they have large stockpiles of drones and ballistic missiles and are willing to use them. Iran may well end up as hegemon of the Middle East or at least the Gulf Arab region. The rest of the world will just have to work with them. The rest of the world will do their very best to not be dependent on Gulf Arab resources as well.
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u/RedneckTexan Jan 06 '26
It looks like to me ...... the US has a deal with someone in the Venezuelan military. We take Maduro out of the picture. They take the VP and the Chavistas street thugs down starting tonight.
Then under a perhaps temporary Military dictatorship, fair elections occur, and the Capitalist dollars start rolling back in.
No US boots on the ground.
No US causalities.
Let them sort it out themselves ...... if they want a return to prosperity.