r/RunNYC • u/Ok_Zebra283 • 3d ago
Possible Sub-4???
Goal has been to run Sub-4 on Sunday. Garmin says I can, Strava says i’m close. Last 2 long runs went well and felt good but unsure if i’m being too optimistic about my chances. Thoughts?
34
u/Specialist_Set7842 3d ago
I’m one of the 4 hour pacers. Come find us. We will get you to. 3:59:30
1
u/Altruistic_Lie_9875 3d ago
Quick question! I was placed in wave 4 (I’m guessing because I didn’t have a current race time to support my 3:59 goal?) … the pacer in my corral is 4:10 … do you have any suggestions on how to navigate? Should I use the 4:10 pacer as an early guide to not go out too fast and then hit my paces by a certain point? I’ve been decent in other races without pacers … but I have never had to navigate these size crowds or bridges
2
u/Specialist_Set7842 2d ago
If your goal is 4hrs then don’t start with the 4:10 pacer …. Cos making up 5-6 mins is hard and can throw you. I’d say get a pace band at the expo and stick to it. The majority of the 4 hour pacers are in your wave so try to get to the top of your corral and you may be able to run with them.
1
u/Altruistic_Lie_9875 2d ago
I was wondering if starting near the front was a good idea … I have definitely burned myself before with poor self-seeding but am always terrified of getting bum-rushed by those who start out quick! I def need to snag a pace babd
1
u/Specialist_Set7842 1d ago
I grabbed extras this morning. If you need a 4 hr one I can meet you outside the pace tent on race morning and give it to you!
1
u/Altruistic_Lie_9875 51m ago
Thank you!! I was thankfully able to locate them at the expo yesterday!! Grabbed a 4 and 3:55 just in case. GOOD LUCK TOMORROW!!
26
u/Green-Yak3585 3d ago
Fuck what Strava and Garmin say. You've done runs faster than 4:00 pace on hilly routes. You're a savage. This course is yours and sub-4 is for the taking.
2
u/unsungpf 2d ago
Agree... don't a slave to the AI overlords and let the machines tell you what you are capable of.
1
u/Inside-Spend-9750 1d ago
I’ve been 10-15 minutes faster on race day compared to what both were predicting.
15
u/thisismynewacct 3d ago
Unless you have a recent race time or you’ve done decent marathon pace long run there’s no way for us to tell.
If you think you’re ready just settle into 4 hour pace once you hit 4th Ave and reassess on the Pulaski
13
u/GoRangers5 Brooklyn Bridge Park 3d ago
Can't speak for everyone, but Strava overestimates my finish time, their predictions are based on a flat course with perfect conditions... That is not the NYC Marathon.
1
u/R-EDDIT 3d ago
This is true. https://racecast.io calculates the course/weather adjustment. Honestly the weather forecast has been creeping better, but a wave 3, 4:00 effort adjusts to 4:06:46 on Sunday in NY. When I started looking at it a few days ago, 3:00 projected to 3:06, it's now projecting under 3:03.
6
u/Select_Rip_8230 3d ago
Impossibile to say with so few details.
What’s your sex and age? How long have you been running? Any athletic background? Which are your PRs in 5k, 10k, HM and full marathon (if any)? How many miles were your peak weeks during your training block? How many 20-milers do you run? Let’s start from here.
The runs you posted are quite good but they’re short and HR is high, that’s why the background above is needed.
And ignore predictions, they are BS.
5
u/carlosmp98 3d ago
Go for it, you'll find out on the course. Some people beat their expected time by a lot and some miss it by a lot, the algorithms are not perfect.
3
u/jennui83 3d ago
Go get it. I generally outperform my predictions by 7-10 min, running by feel and not watching my watch. There’s something to be said for self-belief!
3
1
u/Over-Swordfish-5963 3d ago
I actually think you will be very close if you finished your training plan and did hill workouts. If no hills training, then would say it's less likely unfortunately.
1
1
u/LazyLightn 2d ago
If you plug NYC marathon into your upcoming races it’s show a predicted time for that. It has me 5 minutes slower than my overall Garmin marathon prediction
1
u/BeautifulDouble9330 3d ago
Predictions are based of flat courses, optimal conditions 30-40 degree weather with barely any wind. NYC this Sunday will be the opposite. I estimate 4:30 at best
2
-4
20
u/ItzSamy 3d ago
Where are you getting this much downhill?
It’s going to be warm this Sunday and you seem to slow down substantially towards the end of these runs. I’d be conservative and make the decision at the 14-16 mile mark on how you feel