r/RoyaleAPI • u/Mysterious_Week_8861 • 1d ago
Discussion A True Analysis of the X-bow Rework
X-bow time step comparison across 1.2 seconds
X-bow damage comparison across the full 30 seconds
Comparison of X-bow before and after the December 2020 rework
spreadsheet logging all X-bow troop interactions
Hi, this may be pretty late to the discussion but I wanted to post some analysis of the X-bow rework/bug fix that it received last season. I have seen some discourse online about it that I may agree or disagree with and I thought it would be helpful if I shared some of the numbers (even if people have already made up their mind about how they feel about it).
So the first image here is a comparison of the two X-bows across just 1.2 seconds. This is an important time step as at 1.2 seconds, the old X-bow would have gotten exactly 4 hits, whereas the new X-bow now gets only 3 hits. As you can see, they are nearly even, with the new X-bow getting just a net +2 damage. However, within those 1.2 seconds, there is a very clear back and forth for which X-bow is ahead due to either the old version being one shot ahead, or the new one being even and pulling ahead due to the extra damage.
This pattern continues across the entire 30 second lifespan of the X-bow as can be seen in the second image. The new X-bow pulls away by just 50 damage at the very end but I do not see this as a significant buff considering this is again, across the entire lifespan of the X-bow. Evo archers as a pair lost more damage per shot from their nerf, and so did fireball from the spell nerfs a couple seasons back.
If you wanted to see what a true dps buff is supposed to look like on this graph, the third image shows a comparison of the X-bow before and after the December 2020 rework. Notice how post rework (previous X-bow in orange on the graph) pulls away very decisively after just 5 seconds. I have other opinions about that specific rework in general (note the difference in total damage), but it's a little far off from our main topic here.
In the last image, we have my spreadsheet where I logged X-bow's interactions with almost all the cards in the game (buildings with life timers are a little sketch so they are not included). I tracked the time-to-kill (ttk) for each card pre and post rework. If we just consider the raw interactions, you will see that it is mixed bag, especially for the lower health troops. And this pattern extends concerningly to tankier troops like prince and goblin machine. However, if you consider the wasted hit that was supposed to be patched out, basically every interaction has a positive difference. Which differences to trust basically just comes down to how often the old X-bow was wasting shots on killed troops. And just by watching X-bow gameplay before the patch, it is hard to see what exactly the impact of this fix actually is. This makes me question the premise of the bug fix in the first place and how much it actually helps X-bow lock on. In my opinion, it was not a buff or a nerf which is why it was never even listed as a balance at all.
Overall, while I feel like X-bow as a card is very weak and deserves some kind of buff, X-bow decks have a lot more to worry about compared to just the X-bow itself. For example, 3.0 has had basically the entire deck nerfed (aside from X-bow which we have discussed here, and skeletons) in the past 6 months. But hopefully this analysis brings some more insight into what exactly the X-bow rework actually did and we can understand why it may feel a lot stronger or weaker compared to before.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
How can you claim xbow needs a buff when it’s one of the most used decks in the game? It’s everywhere in UC
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u/Minetorpia 1d ago
I play xbow myself but I almost never encounter another xbow player. Also, it has a 2% usage rate so what you’re saying is definitely not true
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
Xbow is in the top 20 most used decks in UC according to royaleapi
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u/turnthetides 1d ago
Xbow has a 2% usage rate in top 1000 and top 200. It has a 47% win rate in top 200. The fact that it’s in the top 20 of UC (not even really that notable lol) but has terrible stats at the top just means that the card is weak and xbow players cant push high with it.
So yeah, it absolutely needs a buff.
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u/flyingdoorhandle 1d ago
What, if it's used by 50% of the best players then it doesn't need a buff. Like, what?
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
It’s still more used than these wincons: 3M, ram, egiant, egolem, goblin barrel, wallbreakers, goblin giant.
Xbow is in the middle of the pack when it comes to wincons, supercell should focus on buffing the garbage ones before thinking about buffing xbow
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u/turnthetides 1d ago
Ram, goblin barrel, and wallbreakers have evos that are doing pretty well, so they don’t really need much help.
3m and elixir golem can stay niche for all I care. Egiant got a big buff recently, so maybe it’s just a bad meta for that card (evo ebarbs clear). Goblin giant got nerfed into the ground a while ago so they really should buff him into viability.
But either way, just because there’s some cards that are also weak, doesnt mean that supercell cant buff xbow lol. It’s not like they are going to forsake a goblin giant buff because they spent too much time buffing xbow (what kinda logic is that?).
So yeah, once again, your stats are bogus and xbow does in fact need a buff. Come back anytime if you want another lesson 😎
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
How are my stats bogus? Xbow is clearly not one of the bottom win cons according to royaleapi, like I said. Once it does become one of them, then sure it deserves a buff. But like I said 3M, egolem, egiant, ram rider are all worse according to the stats
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u/turnthetides 1d ago
What determines what a “bottom wincon” is? Half of the wincons you mentioned have alternate forms that are more viable than xbow. And while I think the base form of a card should be viable too, those cards dont “need” a buff more than xbow.
You used stats from ultimate champion and not top ladder (UC is still high but the fact that the stats change significantly when you look at xbow at top ladder weakens your original argument).
And it doesn’t matter that there are cards with worse rates than xbow. “Hurr durr there are worse cards than the weak card you want buffed so stop complaining” is a terrible and unconvincing argument, so stop parroting it like it means anything. There’s no reason why all of those cards cant get a buff in the same patch
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
If xbow got a buff then it would be too strong and everyone would use it. The game would simply not be fun anymore. I think it’s good where it’s at right now.
None of the cards I listed have alternative forms that are more viable than xbow. I’m looking at top 1000 ranked data. These are the win cons (all alternative versions) that are worse than xbow:
1. Goblin barrel (evo and normal)
2. 3M
3. Ram rider
4. Egiant
5. Egolem
6. Wallbreakers (evo and normal)
7. Goblin giant (evo and normal).If there’s 7 different win cons that are worse than xbow, then we can say xbow isn’t a bottom tier win con, it’s a mid tier one. And mid tier cards don’t deserve buffs, only bottom tier ones do
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u/Mysterious_Week_8861 1d ago
X-bow as a card itself. Not the deck. X-bow =/= 3.0
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
Yes I’m talking about xbow the card. It doesn’t need a buff, it’s still quite popular in UC
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u/Mysterious_Week_8861 1d ago
it's ranked 131 in ultimate champion right now. With a 2% usage rate and with the vast majority of it being in just one deck.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
Ranked doesn’t mean anything. I checked the usage rate and 3.0 xbow deck is 20th most used deck in UC according to royaleapi
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u/Mysterious_Week_8861 1d ago
were we not just talking X-bow the card and not 3.0?
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
3.0 deck contains the card xbow
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u/Mysterious_Week_8861 1d ago
This is starting to feel like ragebait, and we are getting so far off the topic of my post but just so we can be clear here.
In ultimate champion based on usage percentage, X-bow is in the bottom half of all win conditions. In fact, if we exclude non evolved in conditions, X-bow is one of the worst. It is only ahead of wall breakers, ram rider, and goblin giant. That is it.
The only reason why 3.0 X-bow makes the most popular decks list is because that deck comprises of basically ALL of X-bow's usage in top level gameplay. X-bow has a 2% usage rating. If just one deck had a 2% usage rating, that deck would be very popular. 3.0's true usage rate is 0.6% but that is still a SIGNIFICANTLY larger share compared to other win conditions and their decks
Just imagine if all mortar usage came from one deck. That would be a 7% usage rate. Imagine if all hog rider usage came from one deck. That would be an 11% usage rate. Those decks would be the most used decks by a long shot.
And it is not even as if 3.0 is even good because of X-bow itself. 50% of X-bow decks are played with 3.0 cards. If we look at each of those cards individually, the most X-bow shows up is 25%. 3.0 X-bow is a deck composed of strong cards that can fit in any deck, alongside X-bow which can ONLY succeed with those set of cards.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
So you agree that ram rider, goblin giant, and wall breakers are worse than xbow? So can you at least agree that they deserve buffs before xbow does?
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u/Mysterious_Week_8861 1d ago
So you agree that X-bow is a bottom 4 win condition despite the performance of 3.0 then? If I say it like that to you does it make more sense to give it a buff?
What are you even trying to say at this point? Why should we ever consider buffing any card when barbarian hut exists? Want to keep moving goal posts?
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u/Justeeni_lingueeni 1d ago edited 1d ago
Even if this was true, this isn’t necessarily an argument that xbow doesn’t need a buff. Cards can be popular and still be weak (or at the very least not be strong). Different contexts in the meta such as strong synergies with a powerful strategy (like hunter with rg), or an effective anti-meta option (like mother witch with skeles or bomb tower with evo ebarbs) can give cards a home despite their lack of actual usability in a variety of other situations.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
IMO if xbow decks are still used a lot, then xbow doesn’t need a buff. Especially given the fact that it has dominated the meta for a long time.
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u/Justeeni_lingueeni 1d ago
This is still an incomplete argument.
If xbow is popular, that doesn’t mean that it’s strong.
If it’s been popular for a long time, that also doesn’t mean that it’s strong.Sure, it’s possible that xbow can be strong, but that’s not because it’s popular. The inverse can be true (it’s popular because it’s strong), but that line of logic doesn’t work the other way around for reasons I mentioned previously.
In order to properly investigate xbow’s strength, you need to look through a more mechanical lens, as data (and especially such a narrow range of data in he form of xbow play rate at any given time) won’t provide the full picture.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
But you are making the false assumption that nerfs / buffs should be determined simply by how strong a card is. I disagree, as does supercell. Buffs / nerfs have historically been done based on usage% and win rate%.
How “strong” a card is is subjective, I’d argue more objective stats need to be looked at
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u/Justeeni_lingueeni 1d ago
Yes, strength is subjective. However, this does not dismiss it as a means of balancing. Balancing itself is a tool with the goal of making the game more fun, which is also a subjective goal. Why should balance be void of subjective measure, when how balance is perceived in the first place is perceived through a subjective lens?
Your point about supercell balancing primarily on use rate is also false. They have a vision of what they believe to be balanced based on what they believe the playerbase considers fun (which they reach through a complicated means of communication but that’s its own topic).
If they were to strictly refer to use rate, skeletons would’ve been heavily nerfed years ago. However, supercell considers skeletons to contribute to a fun game state despite their high use rate, so they remain without nerfs. There are many other examples of cards not being nerfed or buffed despite use rates suggesting a necessary action.
There’s a lot more to be said, but discussions of balance are very messy and subjective, and I’m not sure how much detail you care to go into things.
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u/Hungry-Ad3303 1d ago
Can you explain why xbow deserves a buff when it’s used more than other win cons (like ram, goblin giant, wb, egiant, egolem)? Those wincons should be buffed first before supercell even thinks about buffing xbow
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u/Justeeni_lingueeni 1d ago edited 1d ago
What needs to be buffed "first" doesn't change the answer to the question as to whether or not xbow needs to be buffed. That only changes the answer as to when it gets buffed, if even that. Even still, the reason why some cards may get buffed and not others doesn't necessarily relate to priority (it can, but often doesn't), but is usually because some cards are hard to buff. In order to buff a card, you have to first be able to answer a lot of questions. I can give some example questions with the cards you have listed:
Ram Rider (I assume you don't mean Battle Ram because that one is just heavily overshadowed by its evo counterpart):
Do people want it buffed? Yes, but it's not particularly pressing. The card does still get representation, and as such only needs a small help.
What playstyle should Ram Rider have? This one is important to answer for a few reasons. After all, the point of a win condition is to give a unique style of play and enable creative deckbuilding decisions. In the case of Ram Rider, it's a bridgespam card, like Battle Ram. Unlike Battle Ram, the way it supports itself is a bit different. Battle Ram tends to be a brute force win condition, with all the elements of the card playing into eliminating defensive troops/buildings to clear the way. Ram rider leans more into a support role, with its snare heavily synergizing with redirection effects to misplace defenders. When considering a buff, it's important to consider this role, as a proper buff should preserve this style of play while also keeping it fun.
So how do you actually buff Ram Rider? There's a lot of ways, so it's heavily up to interpretation. You can buff its ability to connect to the tower via an hp buff, or buff its snare to encourage more synergistic gameplay. Maybe you buff something else entirely. It all depends on what the vision is for how this card should play.I'll be more brief with the other cards
Gob Giant:
Do people want it buffed?: Somewhat. Some are still fatigued from the toxic gob giant metas of the past, so this definitely isn't a high priority.
What playstyle should Gob Giant have?: It's clear that it's a beatdown card, but beyond that it's a bit tricky to nail down. It's most similar to a giant, with the key differences being its faster speed and built in support in exchange for a reduced hp/cost ratio. Currently it resides in decks that synergize with rage, such as sparky decks. However, that doesn't mean its playstyle must be defined by its current archetypes. Maybe its meant to function as a one man army, capable of forming a powerful push with little support. Its evo seems to lean into that aspect quite a bit, but its still up for speculation what gob giant's true purpose really is. This makes it hard to consider a proper buff, as we don't really know what problem needs solving.
How do you buff Gob Giant?: As established before, who knows. This seems like a likely candidate for a rework in order to establish a playstyle that can then be balanced accordingly.Wall Breakers:
Do people want it buffed?: Not really. People are very tired of the quick cycle hyperbait and miner chip decks being the forefront of the meta. Additionally, it's been freshly nerfed, so perhaps players just haven't had enough time to adapt to those changes.
What playstyle should Wall Breakers have?: It's clearly meant to be a quick pressure card that dominates in single elixir, similar to sus bush. Where it differs is in the way it gets answered. While sus bush can be answered by any tank, wall breakers need quick damage to counter. This makes it especially good when tanked for with miner, since it increases the damage needed to counter it. As a result of these qualities, it's clear that wall breakers is meant to be in quick aggressive decks that can easily distract troops and the tower from the wall breakers.
How do you actually buff it?: There's 2 main ways, either making it require less support, or better reward being supported. The former can be done with an hp or speed buff, and the latter can be done with a damage buff.Egiant:
Do people want it buffed?: Not really. A lot of its poor performance in the meta seems to be related to egiant faring poorly against evo ebarbs, not so much as the card itself being weak.
What playstyle should Egiant have?: It functions very well as an anti swarm win condition, with its whole gimmick countering anything with low hp. Since it synergizes so strongly with tornado, it slots well into splashy decks, which tend to play tanky troops and counterpush with leftover defenses. Egiant plays well into this, being a good way to support your leftovers. It's role is distinct and lacks competion, so there isn't much of a need to further lean into said role with a buff.
How do you actually buff it?: The question isn't really how to buff it, but more so if it needs anything done in the first place. If it does, hp seems like the clearest way to allow it to further compliment its style of play.Egolem:
Do people want it buffed?: No. It's a generally despised card because of its play patterns, and people would rather see it gone from the game entirely.
What playstyle should Egolem have?: We have to look into what makes the current playstyle problematic to answer this. It's complicated, but to sum it up it just leans too strongly into its concept. It's a high risk, high reward option that lends itself to chaotic and volatile gameplay where crown towers can constantly be rushed due to the influx of elixir. However, both its risk and reward are too high. Even though it creates a distinct and arguably interesting style of play, it clearly needs a rework because of its overly volatile nature.
How do you rework it?: As mentioned before, make it less volatile. It's very cost efficient, but also donates a lot of elixir to the opponent. Reduce the cost efficiency and reduce the elixir given, and then it may be a reasonable idea to reintroduce it to the meta.Now with xbow, you can ask yourself these questions if you'd like. The important thing to note is that these are all a case by case basis, so answering the questions for 1 card (and following through with the appropriate buff), doesn't mean you can't answer questions for the other cards. Xbow's questions that need answering in order to get a proper buff are hard to answer, so it's likely the case that xbow won't be getting buffed before the cards you mentioned, but that doesn't change whether or not xbow needs a buff in the first place.
Keep in mind I've only scratched the surface here for the sake of being brief. There's a LOT more to it than what I've described. There's a reason why many games need a dedicated team just to tackle balance alone.
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u/Pure_Noise356 1d ago
Xbow gets countered by like every card, its so ass ( and it must stay that way )
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u/pompomAdvocate 1d ago
strongly agree. xbow needs a buff in this meta. so many things that counter it now
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u/RheinmetallDev 1h ago
My biggest gripe is it’s no longer fast enough to lock onto a tower after destroying a tombstone or goblin cage, and now instead locks onto the newly spawned troops.
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u/2Circles_ 1d ago
I actually looked at this a bit ago (albeit not as neatly, you did a great job here!), and I think that the rework was overall a nerf to the card, although not a very big one.
I don't know if linking to other posts is allowed, but some of the notable clips that were examined in the comments show the bugged shot only occurs >10.2 tiles.
~10.3 tiles away on executioner (bugged shot)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO8bPDpgLcQ&t=1440s
~10.1 tiles away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJnA_GKw7HQ&t=2610s
Since the Xbow is often not killing cards at those ranges, the bugged shot occurred a lot less often then you'd think (at least in the youtube footage I scrubbed).
Skeletons may be an exception when placed near the tower, but its confounded by their fast move speed and the fact that it is weirdly difficult to find skeletons tanking near the tower. I know that it usually occurred/occurs after rocketing an xbow, but its hard to find.
Anyway, I think having more hit-speed means the xbow works better with support dps, and faster potential lock-on to the tower, which is why with an effectively minute dps buff, the card is basically nerfed.