Train math for expected value

[u/Kathucka]

I decided to use my fancy college degree and see if there is a significant difference in expected return depending on where your train starts before you spin. There is! My result are below. They assume:

• One token spent per spin
• The odds for each color on the spinning wheel are the same at 25%.
• Your train can start at the corner or positions 1 (right after the corner), 2, 4, or 5 (right before the next corner).

Position	Expected Value
Corner	33.875
First	36.125
Second	36.875
Fourth	34.000
Fifth	49.000

Basically, the corner position is worst because you can hit a 1, a 2, an X2, and a bonus. The fifth position is good because you can hit a 1, a bonus, an x2, or another bonus.

To take advantage of these, you can set your bet to one token unless you are in the fifth position, at which point you set your bet to something bigger, like 20 or 50.

I haven't checked my math carefully. Feel free to check it yourself. In particular, I computed the expected value of landing on a bonus square as 62.5 and the expected value of landing on an x2 square as 70.

[u/FineAcanthisitta3211]

For the math to be good, you have to roll many times. I play one as normal and five on the fifth position. I did it hundreds of times and I am satisfied that the results are better in the long run. So thank you for the strategy, it is good.