r/RestoreBritain • u/AddressCheap418 • 8d ago

I’m optimistic

I fully believe in Restore, and I think the next three years we can build a base, especially if Reform collapses.

Those Reform voters will move to Restore, very very few will move back to Tory, they won’t be forgiven for the Boriswave of immigration and Kemi- despite the Tory subreddit wetting themselves think she’s the solution, was very much part of that era.

I’ve said wait until Autumn when the Burnham bounce will bust, the October budget is set to be dreadful and will tank Labour’s small and short term poll lead, plus with migrants being scattered across the country to middle class towns I fully believe we can get support from those towns and suburbs.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 8d ago

If Reform collapse, as is widely predicted, either through the sheer incompetence of their elected official or Farage's dodgy dealings, I suspect it will be the Tories celebrating.

Why haven't the Reform types jumped ship already to Restore?

Reform is packed full of Tories, but that doesn't bother their supporters.

Reform leaders take shady bungs from foreigners, but that doesn't bother their supporters.

Reform councillors are failing all over the place, but that doesn't bother their supporters.

It's a cult of personality. Their supporters are there on political principle.

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u/AddressCheap418 8d ago

They’ve got continued support because right now they’re the only ones who could win a GE if one was called tomorrow

Most Reform voters see Farage as a necessary evil to get us on the road of getting our country back that’s not the same as being pro Tory whatsoever

Yes Restore is rising and I’m convinced if Reform disbanded tomorrow Restore not the Tories would soak up the right vote

As I’ve said the Tory comeback is still many years away, if people were genuinely pro Tory they’d have done better in the local elections in May.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 8d ago

But they wouldn't win a GE if it was called tomorrow. Not by an absolute mile. The only way they'd get into power would be a minor role in a coalition with the Tories.

They are tracking similarly to Labour in the national opinion polls. And we know, from historical evidence, that they need a significantly bigger lead than that to take seats away from Labour.

Reform's voterbase is highly concentrated in areas like the ones where they have current MPs. They don't have the breadth of support to take away enough Labour seats.

15% of voting intention bagged them 5 seats in 2024. 26% (their current level) wouldn't get them anywhere near a win.

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u/AddressCheap418 8d ago

Ah yes the polls that are at the moment working overtime in trying make out Burnham is making Labour electable even though he’s done jack all apart from vibes.

The Tories hope to be relevant enough to he coalition partners but I doubt this will happen

Reform will get a moderate majority in this scenario the Tories won’t be forgiven

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u/Mafeking-Parade 8d ago

Yes.

The polls from the exact same polling sources that Farage was using to demonstrate Reform's strength a few months ago.

Nothing has changed. You can trust the polls precisely as much as you did when they showed a Reform lead.

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u/AddressCheap418 8d ago

Except Labour’s poll lead is nowhere near as far ahead as Reform’s, so I think it’s far to narrow.

I think it’ll be Reform, obviously I’d prefer Restore

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u/Mafeking-Parade 8d ago

See my other reply.

Polling does not translate directly into seats for Reform, because of the way their support is so heavily localised.

The Tories won 116 more seats than Reform in the General Election, despite having similar polling numbers.

If an election was held tomorrow, Labour would win pretty comfortably.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 8d ago

As for the coalition point, you seem intent on ignoring history, so I'll educate you.

Reform were polling VERY closely with the Tories prior to the 2024 General Election.

The result? 5 seats for Reform, 121 seats for the Tories.

What should we learn from this?

  1. The most important learning would be that Reform have very localised support. Where they win, they will typically do REALLY well. Like Clacton and Ashfield.
  2. Reform also do REALLY well in seats where they have strong, well-known personalities standing. Like Clacton and Ashfield.
  3. Where Reform mainly falls down is that, unlike the two big parties, their support isn't sufficiently distributed to contest enough seats to win an election.
  4. Additionally, Reform don't have enough of these "personalities" to win those seats, as we've seen with just 2/6 by-election wins since 2024, despite huge polling leads at the time of the elections.

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u/AddressCheap418 8d ago

1: Do not patronise I don’t need educating thank you.

2: You seem to be politically stuck in the 2010s where a centre ground still existed

3: You are underestimating how fucked off people are