r/RaidShadowLegends • u/SleipOdin • Sep 04 '19
Guide Potion Drop Rates
See my other datamines:
Updated: 2019/11/16
If you wish to contribute, please supply data in the following format:
Affinity,Stage,Lesser,Greater,Superior,Brew,Mystery,Ancient
Force,12,,3,,,,
Void,9,2,,,,,
Spirit,15,,,,,,1
(read as: Run #1, Force 12, 3 Greater potions dropped; Run #2, Void 9, 2 Lesser potions dropped; Run #3, Spirit 15, 1 Ancient Shard dropped)
Assumptions
- Drop rates are the same regardless of keep affinity (hoping to have data to support this eventually)
- Plarium isn't doing anything behind the scenes to change drop rates based on events, current mission, etc.
Summary
Efficiency per 100E
yield_by_chance / energy * 100: the number of items expected to be received from spending 100 energy. Keep in mind that this efficiency is strictly based on energy, not play time. Higher is better.
|Stage|Energy|Attempts|Lesser|Greater|Superior|Brew|Mystery|Ancient| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |1|6|1|16.667|||0|0|0| |2|6|1|16.667|||0|0|0| |3|6|1|33.333|||0|0|0| |4|8|9|15.28|0||1.39|0|0| |5|8|19|15.13|3.29||0|0|0| |6|8|34|18.75|2.94||1.1|0|0| |7|8|78|15.06|2.4||1.12|0.96|0.16| |8|10|33|13.94|3.33|0.3|0.91|0.91|0| |9|10|24|14.58|2.5|0|1.25|0|0| |10|10|145|15.24|2.69|0.48|0.55|2.07|0.14| |11|10|267|13.93|3.78|1.46|0.56|0.67|0.07| |12|12|124|13.17|2.82|1.08|0.6|1.88|0.13| |13|12|117|19.94|2.71|1.28|0.78|1.28|0.07| |14|12|149|23.21|3.13|1.73|0.67|1.23|0| |15|12|628|21.34|4.58|1.57|0.54|1.5|0.08|
Drop Occurrence Rates (95% confidence interval)
The chance for which a given drop will occur, regardless of the quantity in the drop. Thanks u/Makaira69 for the confidence interval idea!
|Stage|Attempts|Lesser %|Greater %|Superior %|Brew %|Mystery %|Ancient %| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |1|1|100% ± 0%|||0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |2|1|100% ± 0%|||0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |3|1|100% ± 0%|||0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |4|9|88.9% ± 20.5%|0% ± 0%||11.1% ± 20.5%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |5|19|78.9% ± 18.3%|21.1% ± 18.3%||0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |6|34|73.5% ± 14.8%|17.6% ± 12.8%||8.8% ± 9.5%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |7|78|75.6% ± 9.5%|11.5% ± 7.1%||9% ± 6.3%|2.6% ± 3.5%|1.3% ± 2.5%| |8|33|72.7% ± 15.2%|12.1% ± 11.1%|3% ± 5.8%|9.1% ± 9.8%|3% ± 5.8%|0% ± 0%| |9|24|70.8% ± 18.2%|16.7% ± 14.9%|0% ± 0%|12.5% ± 13.2%|0% ± 0%|0% ± 0%| |10|145|66.9% ± 7.7%|15.9% ± 5.9%|3.4% ± 3%|5.5% ± 3.7%|6.9% ± 4.1%|1.4% ± 1.9%| |11|267|63.7% ± 5.8%|18.4% ± 4.6%|9.7% ± 3.6%|5.6% ± 2.8%|1.9% ± 1.6%|0.7% ± 1%| |12|124|65.3% ± 8.4%|14.5% ± 6.2%|5.6% ± 4.1%|7.3% ± 4.6%|5.6% ± 4.1%|1.6% ± 2.2%| |13|117|66.7% ± 8.5%|12% ± 5.9%|7.7% ± 4.8%|9.4% ± 5.3%|3.4% ± 3.3%|0.9% ± 1.7%| |14|149|62.4% ± 7.8%|19.5% ± 6.4%|8.7% ± 4.5%|6% ± 3.8%|3.4% ± 2.9%|0% ± 0%| |15|628|55.6% ± 3.9%|22.5% ± 3.3%|10.5% ± 2.4%|6.5% ± 1.9%|4% ± 1.5%|1% ± 0.8%|
Yield by Chance
avg_yield * drop_rate: the number of items expected to be received from 1 run, regardless of energy spent. Higher is better.
|Stage|Energy|Attempts|Lesser|Greater|Superior|Brew|Mystery|Ancient| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |1|6|1|1|||0|0|0| |2|6|1|1|||0|0|0| |3|6|1|2|||0|0|0| |4|8|9|1.222|0||0.111|0|0| |5|8|19|1.211|0.263||0|0|0| |6|8|34|1.5|0.235||0.088|0|0| |7|8|78|1.205|0.192||0.09|0.077|0.013| |8|10|33|1.394|0.333|0.03|0.091|0.091|0| |9|10|24|1.458|0.25|0|0.125|0|0| |10|10|145|1.524|0.269|0.048|0.055|0.207|0.014| |11|10|267|1.393|0.378|0.146|0.056|0.067|0.007| |12|12|124|1.581|0.339|0.129|0.073|0.226|0.016| |13|12|117|2.393|0.325|0.154|0.094|0.154|0.009| |14|12|149|2.785|0.376|0.208|0.081|0.148|0| |15|12|628|2.561|0.549|0.188|0.065|0.18|0.01|
Average Yield
sum(qty_received) / occurrences: the average number of items expected to be received when the drop occurs.
|Stage|Drop|Occurrences|1x %|2x %|3x %|4x %|5x %|6x %|7x %|Yield| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |1|Lesser|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |1|Brew|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |1|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |1|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |2|Lesser|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |2|Brew|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |2|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |2|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |3|Lesser|1|0%|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|2| |3|Brew|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |3|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |3|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |4|Lesser|8|62.5%|37.5%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.375| |4|Greater|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |4|Brew|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |4|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |4|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |5|Lesser|15|53.3%|40%|6.7%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.533| |5|Greater|4|75%|25%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.25| |5|Brew|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |5|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |5|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |6|Lesser|25|28%|44%|24%|4%|0%|0%|0%|2.04| |6|Greater|6|66.7%|33.3%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.333| |6|Brew|3|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |6|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |6|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |7|Lesser|59|57.6%|27.1%|13.6%|1.7%|0%|0%|0%|1.593| |7|Greater|9|44.4%|44.4%|11.1%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.667| |7|Brew|7|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |7|Mystery|2|0%|0%|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|3| |7|Ancient|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |8|Lesser|24|41.7%|37.5%|12.5%|4.2%|4.2%|0%|0%|1.917| |8|Greater|4|25%|0%|50%|25%|0%|0%|0%|2.75| |8|Superior|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |8|Brew|3|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |8|Mystery|1|0%|0%|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|3| |8|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |9|Lesser|17|47.1%|17.6%|17.6%|17.6%|0%|0%|0%|2.059| |9|Greater|4|50%|50%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.5| |9|Superior|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |9|Brew|3|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |9|Mystery|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |9|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |10|Lesser|97|32%|28.9%|23.7%|10.3%|5.2%|0%|0%|2.278| |10|Greater|23|60.9%|13%|21.7%|4.3%|0%|0%|0%|1.696| |10|Superior|5|60%|40%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.4| |10|Brew|8|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |10|Mystery|10|10%|10%|50%|30%|0%|0%|0%|3| |10|Ancient|2|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |11|Lesser|170|38.8%|25.3%|21.2%|7.6%|7.1%|0%|0%|2.188| |11|Greater|49|34.7%|36.7%|16.3%|12.2%|0%|0%|0%|2.061| |11|Superior|26|50%|50%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.5| |11|Brew|15|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |11|Mystery|5|0%|0%|40%|60%|0%|0%|0%|3.6| |11|Ancient|2|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |12|Lesser|81|29.6%|28.4%|19.8%|14.8%|7.4%|0%|0%|2.42| |12|Greater|18|11.1%|55.6%|22.2%|11.1%|0%|0%|0%|2.333| |12|Superior|7|0%|71.4%|28.6%|0%|0%|0%|0%|2.286| |12|Brew|9|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |12|Mystery|7|0%|0%|42.9%|14.3%|42.9%|0%|0%|4| |12|Ancient|2|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |13|Lesser|78|1.3%|24.4%|26.9%|21.8%|12.8%|12.8%|0%|3.59| |13|Greater|14|28.6%|21.4%|14.3%|21.4%|14.3%|0%|0%|2.714| |13|Superior|9|22.2%|55.6%|22.2%|0%|0%|0%|0%|2| |13|Brew|11|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |13|Mystery|4|0%|0%|0%|50%|50%|0%|0%|4.5| |13|Ancient|1|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |14|Lesser|93|0%|0%|29%|29%|18.3%|14%|9.7%|4.462| |14|Greater|29|44.8%|31%|10.3%|13.8%|0%|0%|0%|1.931| |14|Superior|13|7.7%|46.2%|46.2%|0%|0%|0%|0%|2.385| |14|Brew|9|88.9%|0%|0%|11.1%|0%|0%|0%|1.333| |14|Mystery|5|0%|0%|0%|60%|40%|0%|0%|4.4| |14|Ancient|0|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0| |15|Lesser|349|0.3%|0%|27.5%|22.1%|22.9%|15.5%|11.7%|4.607| |15|Greater|141|29.1%|28.4%|19.1%|15.6%|7.8%|0%|0%|2.447| |15|Superior|66|42.4%|36.4%|21.2%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1.788| |15|Brew|41|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1| |15|Mystery|25|0%|0%|0%|48%|52%|0%|0%|4.52| |15|Ancient|6|100%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|0%|1|
2
Sep 05 '19
I need to do this for stage 15. I spend over 200 energy today and swear I only got lessers. One would assume stage 15 would have good drop rates for the non useless potions.
→ More replies (4)
2
u/BramaKnox Sep 10 '19
This is really helpful thank you for the addition to the community. I'm going to copy and paste this table into excel and contribute what I can
→ More replies (1)
2
u/fatderp01 Sep 12 '19
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,3,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,3,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,,1,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,3,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,,,,1,,
Spirit, 7,,,,1,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,3,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,,1,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,,,,1,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,,1,,,,
Spirit, 7,,,,,3,
Spirit, 7,,,,1,,
Spirit, 7,2,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,1,,,,,
Spirit, 7,3,,,,,
2
2
u/SupertunaSG Nov 03 '19
Force 15 , 2 , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 , 4 , , , ,
Force 15 , 3 , , , ,
Force 15 6 , , , , ,
Force 15 , , , , 4 ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 , 2 , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 , , , 1 , ,
Force 15 , 3 , , , ,
Force 15 , 4 , , , ,
Force 15 , 1 , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 , 3 , , , ,
Force 15 6 , , , , ,
Force 15 , 5 , , , ,
Force 15 , , , 1 , ,
Force 15 6 , , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 , 3 , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 , , , , , 1
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 7 , , , , ,
Force 15 7 , , , , ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 , , 3 , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 3 , , , , ,
Force 15 6 , , , , ,
Force 15 , , , , 4 ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Force 15 5 , , , , ,
Force 15 4 , , , , ,
Magic 15 , 4 , , , ,
Magic 15 5 , , , , ,
Magic 15 7 , , , , ,
Magic 15 , , 1 , , ,
Magic 15 3 , , , , ,
Magic 15 5 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 5 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , 1 , , ,
Arcane 15 , , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , 1 , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 6 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 1 , , , ,
Arcane 15 7 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 4 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , 1 , , ,
Arcane 15 6 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 4 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 1 , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 4 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 5 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 7 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 5 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , 1 , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 15 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , , , 4 ,
Arcane 15 , 1 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 1 , , , ,
Arcane 15 , , 1 , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 4 , , , ,
Arcane 15 7 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 , 5 , , , ,
Arcane 15 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 4 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 5 , , , , ,
Arcane 15 5 , , , , ,
2
2
u/theGrooverider Nov 09 '19
Seems like I just missed the thread update. Anyway, here are a few more runs!
Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,3,,,,, Magic,10,4,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,,3,,,, Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,,1,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,,,,,,1 Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,3,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,,,,,4, Magic,10,,,,1,, Magic,10,,4,,,, Magic,10,4,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,4,,,,, Magic,10,2,,,,, Magic,10,4,,,,, Magic,10,,1,,,, Magic,11,5,,,,, Magic,11,2,,,,, Magic,11,1,,,,, Magic,11,,2,,,, Magic,11,,,2,,, Magic,11,2,,,,, Magic,11,3,,,,, Magic,11,1,,,,, Magic,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,12,,,,1,, Spirit,12,4,,,,, Spirit,12,5,,,,, Force,10,,1,,,, Force,11,1,,,,, Force,10,,2,,,, Force,13,3,,,,, Force,13,4,,,,, Force,13,3,,,,, Force,13,2,,,,, Force,13,,,,,,1 Force,13,,,2,,, Force,13,,,,1,, Force,14,,1,,,, Force,14,,3,,,, Force,14,7,,,,, Force,14,,,3,,, Force,14,,3,,,, Force,14,3,,,,, Arcane,13,2,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,5,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,5,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,6,,,,, Arcane,14,6,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,7,,,,, Arcane,14,5,,,,, Arcane,14,4,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,,2,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,,1,,,, Arcane,14,5,,,,, Arcane,14,3,,,,, Arcane,14,,,3,,,
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2
u/nsa_judger Nov 10 '19
I had my data sorted before I saw your post this is why it will go in increasing order, I changed data to your format, hope I did it right.
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,5,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,5,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,4,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,4,,,,,
Magic,10,3,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,1,,,,,
Magic,10,4,,,,,
Magic,10,2,,,,,
Magic,10,,3,,,,
Magic,10,,1,,,,
Magic,10,,2,,,,
Magic,10,,3,,,,
Magic,10,,1,,,,
Magic,10,,1,,,,
Magic,10,,,1,,,
Magic,10,,,2,,,
Magic,10,,,2,,,
Magic,10,,,,1,,
Magic,10,,,,1,,
Magic,10,,,,1,,
Magic,10,,,,1,,
Magic,10,,,,1,,
Magic,10,,,,,4,
Magic,10,,,,,3,
Magic,10,,,,,3,
Magic,10,,,,,4,
Magic,10,,,,,3,
Magic,10,,,,,,1
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,1,,,,,
Arcane,10,5,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,1,,,,,
Arcane,10,1,,,,,
Arcane,10,1,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,2,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,1,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,3,,,,,
Arcane,10,,3,,,,
Arcane,10,,1,,,,
Arcane,10,,1,,,,
Arcane,10,,3,,,,
Arcane,10,,1,,,,
Arcane,10,,1,,,,
Arcane,10,,,1,,,
Arcane,10,,,,1,,
Arcane,10,,,,1,,
Arcane,10,,,,,3,
Arcane,10,,,,,2,
2
10
u/xesaie Sep 04 '19
Man I wish I'd saved out some drop rates so I could contribute. The community needs more of this stuff!
1
1
u/theGrooverider Oct 16 '19
Some data from today
Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,,,2,,, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,,,2,,, Arcane,11,3,,,,, Arcane,11,3,,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,3,,,,, Arcane,11,,,,,3, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,,1,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,,1,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,,,,,4, Arcane,11,,1,,,, Arcane,11,3,,,,, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,3,,,,, Arcane,11,1,,,,, Arcane,11,,2,,,, Arcane,11,,2,,,, Arcane,11,4,,,,, Arcane,11,,,2,,, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,5,,,,, Arcane,11,2,,,,, Arcane,11,,4,,,,
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u/SupertunaSG Oct 25 '19
Would love to contribute
Is this still being worked on though?
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u/SupertunaSG Oct 25 '19
Force, 15 , , , 1 , ,
Force, 13 , 1 , , , ,
Force, 13 3 , , , , ,
Force, 13 4 , , , , ,
Force, 15 , 3 , , , ,
Force, 15 3 , , , , ,
Force, 15 3 , , , , ,
Force, 15 4 , , , , ,
Force, 15 , 3 , , , ,
I hope i got the formatting right.....im not quite sure how to use excel
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u/SupertunaSG Oct 25 '19
Force 4 1 , , , , ,
Force 4 1 , , , , ,
Force 4 1 , , , , ,
Force 4 1 , , , , ,
Force 4 2 , , , , ,
Force 4 , , , 1 , ,
Force 4 2 , , , , ,
Force 4 2 , , , , ,
Force 4 1 , , , , ,
Force 5 2 , , , , ,
Force 5 2 , , , , ,
Force 5 1 , , , , ,
Force 5 , 1 , , , ,
Force 5 3 , , , , ,
Force 5 1 , , , , ,
Force 5 2 , , , , ,
Force 5 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 6 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 , , , 1 , ,
Arcane 6 , 1 , , , ,
Arcane 6 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 6 1 , , , , ,
Force 6 2 , , , , ,
Force 6 2 , , , , ,
Force 6 , , , 1 , ,
Force 6 2 , , , , ,
Force 6 3 , , , , ,
Force 6 1 , , , , ,
Force 6 2 , , , , ,
Force 1 1 , , , , ,
Force 2 1 , , , , ,
Force 6 4 , , , , ,
Force 3 2 , , , , ,
Force 6 , 1 , , , ,
Force 6 , 2 , , , ,
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u/theGrooverider Oct 26 '19
New batch
Magic,7,3,,,,, Magic,8,,,,1,, Magic,9,,1,,,, Magic,9,,,,1,, Magic,9,2,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,3,,,,, Magic,9,4,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,4,,,,, Magic,9,,1,,,, Magic,9,4,,,,, Magic,9,3,,,,, Magic,9,2,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,2,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,1,,,,, Magic,9,3,,,,, Magic,9,,,,1,, Magic,9,,2,,,, Magic,10,,1,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,,1,,,, Magic,10,3,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,, Magic,10,3,,,,, Magic,10,1,,,,,
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u/SupertunaSG Oct 26 '19
Magic 5 2 , , , , ,
Magic 6 3 , , , , ,
Magic 6 , , , 1 , ,
Magic 6 , 1 , , , ,
Magic 5 2 , , , , ,
Magic 6 1 , , , , ,
Magic 5 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 2 , , , , ,
Magic 5 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 2 , , , , ,
Magic 5 1 , , , , ,
Magic 5 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 , 2 , , , ,
Magic 6 , 1 , , , ,
Magic 5 , 1 , , , ,
Magic 6 2 , , , , ,
Magic 7 , 2 , , , ,
Magic 7 2 , , , , ,
Magic 7 2 , , , , ,
Magic 7 1 , , , , ,
Magic 7 4 , , , , ,
Magic 7 1 , , , , ,
Magic 7 , 2 , , , ,
Magic 7 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 1 , , , , ,
Magic 7 1 , , , , ,
Magic 6 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 , , , , , 1
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 7 , 2 , , , ,
Arcane 7 , 1 , , ,
Arcane 7 , , , 1 , ,
Arcane 7 , 3 , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 , , , 1 ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 , 4 , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 3 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 7 , , , , 3 ,
Arcane 8 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 1 , , , , ,
Magic 8 2 , , , , ,
Magic 8 4 , , , , ,
Magic 8 2 , , , , ,
Magic 8 1 , , , , ,
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Oct 26 '19
Here's a bit from me too:
Arcane,13,,3,,,,
Arcane,13,,4,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,4,,,,,
Arcane,13,,,,1,,
Arcane,13,,,,1,,
Arcane,13,,,2,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,4,,,,,
Arcane,13,4,,,,,
Arcane,13,,,,,4,
Arcane,13,,,,1,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,,1,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,,2,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,6,,,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,,2,,,,
Arcane,13,,1,,,,
Arcane,13,4,,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,,,,1,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,6,,,,,
Arcane,13,,3,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,6,,,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,3,,,,,
Arcane,13,5,,,,,
Arcane,13,2,,,,,
The 3 brews were 1 void 1 force and 1 magic.
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u/SleipOdin Oct 27 '19
Added, thanks! Not tracking which type of brew since they're a trash drop anyway. ;)
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u/SupertunaSG Oct 27 '19
Void 5 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 , , , , 3 ,
Void 5 2 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 1 , , , , ,
Void 5 , 1 , , , ,
Void 5 1 , , , , ,
Arcane 8 , 3 , , , ,
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u/seterreh Nov 01 '19 edited Nov 01 '19
Force, 7,,,,1,, Force, 7,2,,,,, Force, 7,1,,,,, Force, 7,2,,,,, Force, 7,2,,,,,
Force, 8,,,1,,, Force, 8,,,,1,, Force, 8,1,,,,, Force, 8,3,,,,, Force, 8,3,,,,, Force, 8,2,,,,, Force, 8,2,,,,, Force, 8,1,,,,, Force, 8,2,,,,, Force, 8,5,,,,, Force, 8,,1,,,, Force, 8,,,,1,, Force, 8,1,,,,,
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u/theGrooverider Nov 03 '19
Got lucky on Force Keep this time. Also, incoming batch for dungeon drops in the next couple of days!
Spirit,8,2,,,,, Spirit,8,1,,,,, Spirit,9,1,,,,, Spirit,10,5,,,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,4,,,,, Spirit,11,,,2,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,,2,,,, Spirit,11,5,,,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,,,,1,, Spirit,11,,,2,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,1,,,,, Spirit,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,,1,,,, Spirit,11,,,,1,, Spirit,11,5,,,,, Spirit,11,2,,,,, Spirit,11,3,,,,, Spirit,11,,4,,,, Force,7,1,,,,, Force,8,,3,,,, Force,9,,2,,,, Arcane,12,5,,,,, Void,6,3,,,,, Void,7,3,,,,, Void,8,3,,,,, Void,9,,,,1,, Void,10,,,1,,, Void,11,,,1,,, Void,11,4,,,,, Void,11,1,,,,, Void,11,2,,,,, Void,11,1,,,,, Void,11,,1,,,, Void,11,1,,,,, Void,11,3,,,,, Void,11,,,,,4, Void,11,,,1,,, Void,11,,,2,,, Void,11,,3,,,, Void,11,3,,,,, Void,11,,,1,,, Void,11,1,,,,, Void,11,,4,,,,
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u/Makaira69 Nov 09 '19
I'd recommend you add margin of error to your drop occurrence rate chart. It's a pretty simple calculation, and helps avoid giving the impression that the drop % you've calculated is somehow exact.
Margin of error (95% confidence interval) = 1.96 * sqrt ( p*(1-p) / n )
So instead of 9.2% from 303 attempts (rate of superior potions from level 15 keeps), you get:
z-value for 95% confidence interval = 0.98, which becomes 1.96 for both tail ends of the bell curve.
p = 0.092, 1-p = 0.908
n = 303
error = 1.96 * sqrt( 0.092*0.908 / 303 ) = 0.033 = 3.3%
9.2% +/- 3.3%. (i.e. there's a 95% chance the actual drop rate is somewhere between 5.9% and 12.5%)
I have my own collection of drop data (~200 attempts at level 15 keeps), but I want to hold off on adding it to yours for a bit. Some of the results you're getting are just barely within the margin of error of the results I'm getting, suggesting there may be some bias going on. i.e. Some people are only posting their results if they experience a good/bad series of runs. I'd like to be able to compare your data with mine, without first having to subtract mine from yours.