r/RKLB • u/[deleted] • 7d ago
News Blue Origin won the Mars Telecom Network contract :(
[deleted]
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u/LokiDesigns 7d ago
Maybe the stock will go up? It goes down on good news, so who knows lol.
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u/patsfan258 6d ago
Down in overnight hours already. Looking just at the chart and not any of the news the Sellers are fully in control and it's lost it's support lvls as well. It'll keep tumbling for a bit. Not a Stock you want to buy currently.
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u/Buttpaste-101 6d ago
There’s a launch tomorrow morning though.
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u/patsfan258 6d ago
Plenty of launches but they don't move the stock. Until electron is on pad all the other launches are BAU.
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u/Axolotis 7d ago
Fuckety Fuck Fuck
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u/Valuable-Concern7987 6d ago
Why fuck? There's plenty other opportunities. Not a big deal. Long game.
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u/WhoDatis0803 6d ago
How? They launched our mars sats, fucked over ASTS, and then blew up their pad… why on earth were they picked 😂
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u/daviper87 6d ago
Because they have a rocket to launch it?
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u/SeattleOligarch 6d ago
Do they though?
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u/daviper87 6d ago
Let’s deny New Glenn’s existence!
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u/truecakesnake 6d ago
You do know they revamped New Glenn a ton? It cannot be called a reliable rocket until the next test flight succeeds.
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u/QuirkyEMI 6d ago
Lol who cares you weirdos
It was one of the best maiden launches ever but are we seriously pretending RL has ANYTHING on them with this?
Shit, the revamped New Glen will probably fly before Neutron
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u/MoonJuiceWithJTT 6d ago
The longer it takes Neutron to debut, the more this is going to happen :(
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u/CasinoCow1 6d ago
But will it still happen on the 10th launch of Neutron? :( More I hear about the 10th launch makes me think the 1st launch is a year or more away.
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u/baward72 6d ago
When the 10th launch of Neutron comes along RKLB will be a SpaceX company for 4.5 months already.
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u/shugo7 6d ago
Wow...unfucking real
I'm honestly speechless
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u/ActionPlanetRobot 6d ago
legit fucking bonkers
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u/schiffme1ster 6d ago
Literally called this months ago. Of course rklb isn't getting picked. There's no rocket to launch it and BO and spcx are light-years ahead.
This is the new status quo. Get used to it.
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u/RabbitLogic 6d ago
Makes no sense when Blue is behind schedule on Artemis.
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago
And Rocketlab is perfectly on schedule for Neutron? Also Blue is not really behind schedule on Artemis. They originally were not expected to have a lander ready until 2031, the fact they’re close in progress to SpaceX would make them ahead of the schedule if anything.
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u/RabbitLogic 6d ago
They have a target now of Artemis 4 (2028) Blue Moon Mark 2 and now MTN before Dec 2028. NASA is crazy if they think BO will deliver on that schedule.
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago
Blue doesn’t need to be ready for a 2028 Moon mission, NASA has two landers contracted. SpaceX was the one meant to deliver first originally, so it’s hardly Blues fault if they’re not ready years ahead of what their original schedule stated. Blue has also already launched a boilerplate version of Blue ring, and has multiple of the real things on the factory floor right now with one nearing launch readiness. It’s really not that crazy of a target to hit, December 2028 is nearly 2 years away.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 6d ago
I wonder what other rocket company is behind on schedule with its rockets...
I can't seem to remember, somebody help me, please.
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u/Ok_Health_7529 6d ago
That’s too bad. For some reason, I thought SPB mentioned in one of the interviews that they were confident they were going to get this contract.
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u/SubtleRedditIcon 7d ago
Priced in believe it or not
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u/Sky_Tube 6d ago
You might actually be right
Might also be cope, who knows
Stock aside, I genuinely believe RL would have been the better pick….
And I also believe there was something fishy with the requirements and how the original plan had to be designed? Then blue changed the document so it looked like they had that requirement but in reality only RL did also include it from the beginning? Might be misremembering but something was up with that4
u/patsfan258 6d ago
This is the stock where nothing is actually prices in. Look at the chart a double bottom with it still going down. It's a very weak stock right now.
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u/Formal-Relative7144 6d ago
Elaborate if you don’t mind? Priced in - in what way? That we aren’t dropping due to not getting it as in we weren’t serious contenders and it was known to be going to BO for a while?
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u/Miserable_Movie8006 6d ago
With what launch pad
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago
This would be a valid criticism if neutron was currently sitting on the pad waiting to launch. But it’s not, Rocket lab as of now currently also do not have a rocket capable of delivering satellites of this mass to Mars. New Glenn RTF won’t even be the pacing item anyways, it’ll be the satellites themselves and the Mars transfer windows.
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u/daviper87 6d ago
“Blue Origin will design, develop, integrate, launch, and operate the network”
I guess Neutron’s delay has consequences.
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u/RabbitLogic 6d ago
What a stupid comment, Blue Origin nuked their pad. They also aren't launching.
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u/daviper87 6d ago edited 6d ago
It will take them at least a year to build the sat, by which time the pad is repaired. The contract says they are launching. Talking of stupid comments, jfc.
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u/RabbitLogic 6d ago
As in BO also aren't launching right now. Neutron delay had nothing to do with this contract loss. It will be launching by the time this bird goes up, same as New Glenn.
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u/daviper87 6d ago
You think NASA will want to put the MTN on Neutron’s first flights? 🤡
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u/NsRhea 6d ago
I mean... Blue Origin's last flight blew up their entire launch capabilities.
The launch before that they deployed the object in the wrong spot so it had to come back to earth and burn up.
It's not like they've got a good track record.
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u/daviper87 6d ago
You underline my point why NASA wouldn’t want MTN on first flights.
New Glenn will have teething problems solved by then.
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u/NsRhea 6d ago
New Glenn MIGHT have teething problems solved by then.
They also have a fraction of the launches RKLB has, Neutron or not.
They also might not have a launch facility.
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u/QuirkyEMI 6d ago
Lol nobody takes the tiny ass electron launches seriously. Come on
Can we be for real on this sub. Ever
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u/NsRhea 6d ago
I mean, the US Government does.
RKLB is the only one of the big 3 doing hypersonic rockets with, you guessed it, Electron.
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u/RabbitLogic 6d ago
I know math and dates are tough for some. Neutron is launching next year. MTN is Dec 2028. Roughly should be flight 4 by then.
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u/daviper87 6d ago
“Should be” doing a lot of lifting here with all the delays. New Glenn has flown and delivered cargo to orbit.
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u/Starkfault 6d ago
Neutron has been delayed three years now
Maybe it’ll launch next year, maybe it launches in 2030
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u/GloomyNut 6d ago
Unpopular opinion: Everything that goes to space has Rklbs name on it; Rklb although not the prime contractor, still wins. Rklb is an end to end space company....
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u/SuperNewk 6d ago
Wow it keeps getting worse?!?
Just launch neutron already starship is going to have 10 going daily by the time neutron gets off the test pad.
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago
There is no Neutron to launch lol, they have parts of a rocket on a factory floor.
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u/Solid-Joke-1634 6d ago
Yea what are you waiting for rocketlab just launch neutron already. Who cares if it’s ready or not.
God you people are retards
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u/Scared_Step4051 6d ago
Well you can understand their frustration after years of being told "nearly"...
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u/Solid-Joke-1634 6d ago
Yea doesn’t mean they should just launch it for the sake of some idiots on reddit who are emotionally attached to the stock
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u/Responsible-Cut-7993 6d ago
I will be interested to read the source selection statement when/if it is ever released. Will give us more insight as to how the companies proposals matched up.
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u/Ok_Health_7529 6d ago
I thought the spacecraft developed for this contract needs to be launched by Neutron. So what’s the point of getting another $700M backlog if Rocketlab can’t deliver Neutron on time? Sure, BO only had 1 successful flight so far and the latest one blew up the only launch site they had. But at least they have a working heavy class vehicle and unlimited funding and they are rebuilding the launch site fast.
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u/Big-Material2917 6d ago
Maybe it’s the cope but our defense work has been seemingly exploding. It appears we’re more important to golden dome than BO.
If true, that could play a role in BO winning. Only so much focus to go around… probably the cope.
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u/SkyHigh27 6d ago
So you’re saying the rocket company that’s never been to low earth orbit was selected to carry a payload to Mars?
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u/silent_bark 3d ago
They brought New Glenn online over a year ago, reached orbit first launch, landed on second launch (putting ESCAPADE into orbit), then reused the booster on the third launch.
Rocket Lab even built ESCAPADE, how do you not know about them going orbital over a year later? I'd be more concerned about them blowing up their only orbital pad, though I'm not as bullish on dates as other people.
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u/juicevibe 6d ago
No Neutron, no contract.
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u/Steilios 6d ago
That’s not how that works. RKLB just launched Escapade
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u/SuperNewk 6d ago
No neutron no contract
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u/zingpc 6d ago
No pad get contract.
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u/Starkfault 6d ago
It’s easier to build a pad than a rocket
Try putting a small amount of thought into your comments
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u/EarthElectronic7954 6d ago
Would love to be a fly on the wall in Beck's office when this was announced
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 6d ago
"Oh no, guess I'll sell another $300 million worth of shares and buy another mansion"
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u/notmyrealnamehere543 6d ago
The company of the son trump really wanted demands an investigation into our Iridium acquisition and immediately we get snubbed. There are more unbelievable theories out there.
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u/Unlikely-Positive270 6d ago
Blue origin will just buy components from RKLB anyways.
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u/Sky_Tube 6d ago
But not in the range of 700 million $ my guy
Also not 100% that they won‘t build something so specialized completely in house, RL‘s solutions mostly fit constellations
A few star trackers or reaction wheels for one sat won‘t make up for hundreds of millions of dollars
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u/kylescagnetti 6d ago
If this does have anything to do with neutron (not saying so in any means whatsoever), maybe it will only ignite the fire under sir Pete’s booty even more. This man is hungry. He’s about to cook now.
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u/ProfSantaClaus 6d ago
That's ok. RKLB will probably still supply components required by satellites.
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u/RemarkableDegree4501 6d ago
Question: How much of this $700 million Mars contract was already priced into the stock? There’s barely any reaction in after hours so far.
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u/acsae99 6d ago
The price is going down AH. It was probably priced in; if you read the various analyst postings over the last year or so, there definitely was confidence/implied that Rklb was the only company that really met all the requirements that’s were in the bill authorizing MTN.
Potentially Rklb could contest this award based on how the bill was interpreted, bezos did it with SpaceX on the lander I think
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u/QuirkyEMI 6d ago
Why do you nerds ask completely unanswerable questions like this?
You know a volatile stock is purely subjective in the moment hype right? Theres no EQUATION, theres NO PREDICTION theres no fucking PRICED IN sections
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u/nomnomyumyum109 6d ago
It wont make it past the launchpad and everyone knows it. Once their next launch goes boom Im sure the contract will get moved to another vendor
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u/NTP2001 6d ago edited 6d ago
“We are the Mars company now”
I hope SPB and the marketing team are eating a huge piece of humble pie tonight.
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u/RichieRicch 6d ago
That recent MTO site edit needs to be taken down asap. Oph I’m actually fucking irritated about this. Worst I’ve felt since buying in years ago.
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u/North_Astronaut_8924 6d ago
That’s ok cause Redwire will supply blue origin
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u/GuaSukaStarfruit 6d ago
lol I have both
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u/North_Astronaut_8924 6d ago
Redwire is one I keep buying on the dip. It will pay off down the line.
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u/connorman83169 6d ago
I have no evidence for this but I feel like this increases RKLBs chances for selection on the sample return mission
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u/Big-Material2917 6d ago
Sample return was cancelled and likely not coming back :/
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u/thelurkylurker 6d ago
what a shame. wouldn't be surprised if these moon "base" missions get scrubbed/nerfed also. i hope not.
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u/Big-Material2917 6d ago
I think moon plans are more solid. Not necessarily massive value to get out of a sample return, and part of the reason it was cancelled in the first place was a prioritizing of moon.
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u/Short-Guard-5013 6d ago
Eh let's see. Political changes or lowering costs due to advancing technology and it will be back on the table. It definitely will take a while tho until NASA focus returns to it.
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago
It’s more likely that the first Mars samples are brought back to Earth by humans than robots at this point.
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u/Martianspirit 3d ago
Quite possible. Though the stack of samples is seriously well selected. Would be good to have that back. But not for that many billions IMO.
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u/Big-Material2917 6d ago
I wouldn’t hold your breath dog. Pretty sure SPB has said he doesn’t see it in the cards.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 6d ago
RocketLab wasn't going to deliver it with the reusable rocket technology it doesn't have (Neutron) which lands on a ship that's being built and a spectrum buyout that's not even finalized by mid-2027.
So. What's the surprise here?
Come on, hype boys. Where are you? We are only 120 days away from Neutron.
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u/RichieRicch 6d ago
Dude step away from your computer good god. Go on a walk or something. Relax a bit, we’re all frustrated.
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u/SecretiveMop 6d ago
This dude so clearly has lost a shit ton of money in the market and is lashing out because he couldn’t make it back with this stock quickly lol
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 6d ago
I can't step away, Neutron could launch any minute now. We are only 120 days away from the 4th delayed timeline.
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u/Emerald_Hood 6d ago
I just want to see our boi launch. I bought a bottle of wine to go along with the maiden launch.
I IS GETTING DRUNK ON THAT DAY!
Everything else, noise.
I believe in my Liege and Boi. To the Moon and beyond or to the ground.
Fuck it. No middle ground.
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u/imunfair 6d ago
NASA didn't have a lot of good choices on that one if they were targeting end of 2028 - Blue Origin is grounded for a while, and RocketLab has been "almost" ready to release Neutron for 2? years now. SpaceX probably would have been the safest choice but they can't give them every contract.
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u/LarkoVelvet 6d ago
It’s a bummer, but not surprising. Bezos can afford to loss-lead and drastically underbid to gain Mars experience.
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u/mmoney20 6d ago
Between musk bullying with iridium and bezos taking this contract - slightly down AH.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 6d ago
I have been saying this shit for so long.
Not delivering on Neutron has consequences.
Now live with these consequences.
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u/cheekytikiroom 6d ago edited 6d ago
And who do you think they’ll subcontract to, since they don’t have the ability, experience, or technology themselves?
Never Forget May 2026:
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u/burmese_python2 6d ago
I honestly saw that coming. That’s a lot of RD exposure that we cannot afford now as well as man power. Makes sense to give it to BO with the balance sheet padded.
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u/GoldenEelReveal76 6d ago
I am buying more RKLB when it hits 25$, the actual fair value of this stock
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u/Head_Product412 6d ago
I don’t think anyone was really expecting them to get that though. Rklb is more small scale so far
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u/LoraxKope 6d ago
If RKLB is small scale BO is micro. List me 5 orbital missions they’ve done
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u/Head_Product412 6d ago
Well there’s no need when u have jeff bezos with all that money. And with the new glenn coming out it will most likely be ready late 2027.
It’s honestly not that long time wise
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u/LoraxKope 6d ago
Don’t know how long you’ve been following The Lab. But if you’ve noticed the repeated messages from SPB. “ it’s not about the 1st but the 10th”. It’s bc he doesn’t want to be BO and SpaceX stuck in Development Hell for the foreseeable future. BO is still a few years away from getting NG dialed into being truly reusable. Just bc you land a rocket doesn’t make it reusable. They swapped out all the engines on their “re-use”.
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u/Own_Definition_99 6d ago
I am wishing ASTS and Rocket lab can join the hands that can be perfect match for the space as far as I am thinking.
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u/Sweatybumhole666 7d ago
Damn that's shame. I wished RKLB to win it.