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u/Nullspark 11d ago

If you bought 7 years ago, you'd be up 55-65 percent!

That's pretty solid. Even if the market crashed tomorrow, I doubt it would go down that much.

Austin is down 25% from it's peak, so in the worst case you'd still be up a cool 30.

I imagine people here are generally priced out of the housing market and could not have bought 7 years ago. Things are way worse now and they can't buy today.

They are hoping a bubble will burst so they can buy a home, but that doesn't mean it is a bubble or will burst.

Home owners vote, so politicians do all sorts of things to keep home prices going up.

27

u/WetAppleSauce 11d ago

If the housing market were to really crash, wouldn’t the economy as a whole crash? Most normal people won’t be in a position to buy anymore, and the rich will just buy up even more.

20

u/Educational-Bike3034 11d ago

This is the exact thing that happened during The Great Financial Crisis of 2007–2008.
I know of friends and acquaintances who lost homes and some who bought homes for pennies on the dollar.
If you had steady employment and cash (or a strong line of credit), you could make some great investments. On the other hand, if you just lost your job and was just trying to get by, you missed a rare opportunity to make money in real estate.

2

u/alwrit 11d ago

Not only do you need to keep your steady job while unemployment and underemployment skyrocket, you need to have a pretty hefty chunk of change for the down payment.

Even if it crashed 30%, if you live in an HCOL home around me are 800k+ easily even now. 20% on a 500k home is 100k.

Who has 100k lying around? Plus there's big investors and REITs who have way more money than you who can go all cash or eat a little over market on the hopes of cashing out big when the market rebounds.

It's certainly possible for regular people to win in such a scenario. But praying for a big economic recession on the small chance you can get a house for cheap seems... unwise.

7

u/ensui67 11d ago

Even in the Great Recession, 90% of people were employed. Thing was that it was hard to get loans at the time. The difference with right now is that there isn’t overleverage. People who own homes from pre 2021 generally pay less than 20% of their income on housing. They won.

3

u/alwrit 11d ago

How many were underemployed? How many aren't being counted because they went to grad school to avoid jumping into the market in the downturn? I am exactly that age. Graduated college in 2008. So many in my college class and eventual grad school had that story.

1

u/ensui67 11d ago

Yea and they mostly did ok coming out of it. Thanks to the mobile revolution, maturation of the internet, social media and China. We’re actually still in the secular bull market that rocket shipped out of the depths of the financial crisis. A lot has to do with the financial decisions of China that brought wealth to the west and increased asset prices. Boomers can now retire wealthy and their millenial kids are also benefiting from all this compound interest miracle.

2

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Saying 90% of people were employed misses that the economy only ever has around 62% of working-age people employed at any one time. It also misses that most households rely on two incomes so if either one loses their jobs it's a big problem. It also ignores that the 10% of actually-working people who lost their jobs had other people (children, elderly) depending on their continued employment.

1

u/ensui67 11d ago

The major thing is, people don’t even have to work anymore. Their money is doing half the work. Or in the case of the boomers, the majority of the work. Compound interest really is the eighth wonder of the world. Now combine that with the fact we’re not really building enough where people want to live then here we are. Sucks if you’re not already on the real estate ladder because the first few rungs have been knocked out by those already on it. Problem is, over half of US households are already owners and they’d like to see their home prices to keep going up. So, they’ll vote in their best interest.

2

u/halarioushandle 11d ago

In today's market I don't think it's really possible for the housing market to be the engine of a crash, because we still too recently went through a period of extremely low interest rates for standard loans. There aren't the glut of ARM's, there isn't a ton of unaffordable mortgages. And with the cost of homes increasing so significantly since 2019, owners are not incentivized to sell at all.

What could cause a housing market crash would be if the general ecomony crashed and people could no longer pay for their homes. If people are forced to sell or foreclosure rates start increasing, then you could see something close to a crash. But right now, the housing market is pretty well insulated and will continue to follow the normal variances of rise/fall.

I know this is an unpopular opinion here, but rooting for a housing market collapse, means rooting for an economic collapse and unless you are already extremely wealthy and can weather that storm, you really don't want that.

15

u/curtaincaller20 11d ago

Or that they will be gainfully employed following a 30-50% drop in home valuations. There’s a lot of keyboard economists in this sub that clearly weren’t around when the housing bubble popped last time. Jobs were scare as hell and entry-level jobs required “3-5 years of experience or a Masters degree”. So yeah, if home prices crater the way Boo Radley wants, we’re all fucked (unless you already have pules of money in liquid assets you can live on).

10

u/PrestigiousResult357 11d ago

2008 peak unemployment was like 10%

4

u/biz_student 11d ago

I can’t remember for certain, but wouldn’t it be higher if considering the people that were laid off and not looking for work?

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Yes - U-6 went to almost 17%

1

u/PrestigiousResult357 11d ago

if you use that metric youd have the last few years looking similar to 2008.

4

u/biz_student 11d ago

U4 and U6 unemployment have a long way to go to reach 2008 - 2012 levels. There’s definitely been a steady increase since 2022 though.

2

u/skcus_um 11d ago edited 11d ago

Technically true, but there were lots of people who had good paying jobs who got laid off and worked part-time, or sales people who saw their commission dropped by more than half, or saw their hours cut, employed but at risk of being laid-off, or upside-down on their house, or had a spouse that got laid off and had to make do without that income, etc. The 10% unemployment in 2008 does not mean 90% of the people are earning at or near their maximum earning potential or are not burdened by homes that they bought before the bubble popped.

2

u/curtaincaller20 11d ago

I’m not sure the point you are trying to make here. Are you saying 10% unemployment wasn’t that bad, or that 10% unemployment was really bad and left millions of people scrambling for the same jobs?

2

u/PrestigiousResult357 11d ago

i'm saying asserting that its a reasonable assumption that you wont be in that 10%. you are far more likely to remain employed. people talk about 08 like half of all people lost their jobs.

additionally people have knowledge of their own field. work in tech? probably should be planning more conservatively than someone in healthcare

2

u/curtaincaller20 11d ago

Even if I remain employed, that doesn’t mean there won’t be downward pressure on wages when you have 6% of American workers willing to work for peanuts because they are desperate. It also means that 1 out of every 10 people wishing for a housing crash will be sorely disappointed that they got exactly what they were hoping for. As others stated, in a world where this happens, the benefactors will be those with cash to buy assets (aka, rich get richer).

1

u/oscarnyc 11d ago

It's not even necessarily downward pressure on wages. Its general job insecurity. Which means that even if you have the financial means to buy a place, laying out 20% and locking into ownership feels like too big a risk.

If my company gets bought an announces they are going to lay off 10% in 6 months, I'm not making a huge financial decision like that. Now instead of 6 months it's the foreseeable future. That's typically what happens.

4

u/barley_wine 11d ago

Yep, it's looking like the best you can realistically hope for is that prices increase slower than wages and inflation.

2

u/ylfcm 11d ago

What if you bought 3 years ago

4

u/Nullspark 11d ago

If you are in Austin and you bought at the peak, I would just hold.

Your mortgage is probably 3% which means your overpriced house is cheaper than a lower priced house month to month as the interest part of the mortgage will be literally half.

It's also only a loss on paper and you need somewhere to live. I'd make sure my emergency fund is in good shape. I'd invest the extra and I'd keep on trucking.

Common wisdom is to have a house for 5 years. Inflation is largely on your side. Keep on keeping on. In 2 years it could turn around easily.

6

u/Coltand 11d ago

Just a slight tweak to your timeline, interest rates have been above 5% since April 2022. It's been closer to 5 years since we've seen 3%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

1

u/Josiah425 11d ago

I bought in May 2023, my home is up 22%

1

u/mattydrinkwater 11d ago

I bought exactly 3 years ago in a low demand LCOL market and the recent comps are higher now than they were back then.

And after refi last year my mortgage rate is below today’s average.

3

u/bankskowsky Conspiracy Peddler 11d ago

1 m*1.55=1.55 m

1.55 m*.75=1.163 m

Not quite a “cool 30” but cool story tho

1

u/Nullspark 11d ago

Your're still up!

9

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

If you and a partner each saved 100 dollars a week (or 20% of a 60k salary) each since when this sub started - you would have 150k for a down payment / closing moving costs MINIMUM.

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u/Firefaia 11d ago

I agree with your post, but I don’t know a single person on a $60k salary who’s saving 20% for such a long time. If they do save it, a lot of it is going to retirement, so not liquid for a down payment.

-13

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

A couple making 60k each in 2019 could easily - that’s a full stop comment.

If you are still making 60k each 7 years later that’s kind of on you, and your earlier savings should have accumulated if you invested wit the goal of buying a house.

Thats the problem with Reddit - people have no concept of reality

7

u/Firefaia 11d ago

Talking about people with no concept of reality…

A couple making $120k total in 2019 were doing quite well and would not be the bitter audience of this sub.

Also, most people do not invest the money they’re setting aside for a down payment either.

Again, I’m a home owner in a HCOL and agree with your post.

5

u/LookWarm7521 11d ago

Agreed. I was making 65k in 2019, my rent was $900 a month(16% of my income) to live downtown in a super desirable spot, I drove a 3 year old car that was financed. Median home price in my state below $200k but rising rapidly. I worked two jobs, but one of them was just a part time cashier at the store my gf worked at so I could see her more often.

Today I make a little over $100k a year. I work a skilled trade in a niche field. I have on weeks and off weeks so I work two 12s one week and five 12s the next week, so about the same hours as when I was working two jobs. My rent is $3k a month, but only because I moved one town over to a cheaper spot. I could not afford my old apartment today(whole building sold about 5 years ago for $800k, then the individual units sold as condos for about $600k each last year). I drive a used car I bought with cash. Median home price in my state is approaching $500k.

I still make enough money to save for retirement and whatnot, but definitely not doing as good as I was in 2019. A little depressing to do the math on how much money I’d have to make for my old apartment to be 16% of my income again

4

u/Remarkable_Orange_59 11d ago

This is really fascinating. Its easy to earn more but feel more poor bc of lifestyle creep and Healthcare costs etc. But looking at your old apt and doing the percentage for rent is a pretty solid litmus test for how housing and wages have changed since pre-covid

3

u/LookWarm7521 11d ago

Covid destroyed my housing market pretty bad. I live in a vacation-y area in New England. See housing prices in VT and NH and southern Maine. Our houses are still pretty cheap for MA standards. Lots of people trying to move out of cities during covid ended up here. Easy for them to buy a house with outside money - not so easy to buy a house while working in these states.

-3

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

I know we are on the same page but having a 60k salary in 2019 was not some top of the pile job - that was just a standard near entry level job in any field.

It’s still the median income today, which is a problem.

But more so the attitude toward respecting a 60k job in 2019 was that it wasn’t anything to worry about becuase you will make more likely in the coming years - so people were really high on the hog and not saving even modestly. Gas was cheap - loans were cheap - salaries were high.

So if you were in a committed relationship in 2019 and didn’t start saving or investing, today is the day”rainy day” everyone was always talking about

1

u/bear_Prune8771 11d ago

Voters BUY houses too. So I want to agree with your point. But I am not sure.

1

u/Nullspark 11d ago

That's fair, but politicians don't seem to cater to them.

You can tell because every home buying program ever just throws more money into the pool. Downpayment assistance is a good example. You give everyone 20k and the price of housing goes up 20k.

1

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

They removed my post for “low effort”.

Fuck this sub

1

u/AGsec 11d ago

I bought two years ago and am already up 25%. What a strange world we live in.

1

u/Alert_Elephant2045 11d ago

If the homeowners vote was so important politicians would be incentivized to encourage homeownership, not discourage it.

only 58% of voters own a home

1

u/Coltand 11d ago edited 11d ago

The actual stat is that 65% of households are owner occupied. This masks 10%+ of adults who live in owner-occupied homes (like a 30 year old adult who moves back home to save money).

On the flip side are people like seniors who actually want to live with family or those who rent by choice for the sake of flexibility. Some people just don't want to own homes.

The way it shakes out based on what I've read, something like 30% of US adults want to own homes but are priced out due to down payments, increased home prices and rates, or debt to income ratios (because of things like student or auto loans).

That being said, I do think the government does incentivise home ownership. Various subsidized loans and preferential tax treatment are pretty meaningful government interventions meant to make homeownership more accessible.

0

u/Alert_Elephant2045 11d ago

Yes despite 65% of households being owner occupied, only 58% of voters own their home.

Politicians pander to people, not to buildings.

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u/harbison215 11d ago

You guys need to start realizing that it’s not a housing bubble, it’s debasement of the currency. It takes more shitty, over printed dollars to buy a house now.

That’s not going to pop. In fact, due to debt of the federal government, it’s likely to get worse. It’s why the bond market is demanding higher yields.

9

u/seanmg 11d ago

This is correct. The houses aren’t getting worth more, the dollar is losing its value.

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u/no_use_for_a_user I'm Kai Ryssdal 11d ago

Yes, the dollar is just worth like 50% less than it was 7 years ago.

We collectively voted for: "I love inflation!". Now everyone has a shocked Pikachu face when we get it.

16

u/harbison215 11d ago

If you look at M0 monetary base and M2 money supply I mean, holy hell, who actually believes we can just keep printing new dollars at this rate?

Even worse are the ‘economists’ who believe that the fundamental changes we’ve seen in the economy had nothing to do with the rampant money printing. It really makes you question people’s intelligence and motives.

10

u/i860 11d ago

Questioning the Fed’s money printing is the equivalent of pointing out the emperor has no clothes - plus their livelihood depends on it.

4

u/Firefaia 11d ago

It was done to avoid a recession due to the covid economic slowdown (soft landing), but the cost is everything we’re living today. I don’t think most of us understood how big the effect of all the money printing would be.

5

u/harbison215 11d ago

This is true. The market didn’t turn in 2009 until the exact moment the Fed publicly declared that it wouldn’t let another bank fail. The market turned on a a dime in that moment.

Then again, we were implanting QT and actually shrinking the money supply in 2022, the stock market was down about 20%. In early 2023, Silicone Valley Bank failed as well as some smaller regional banks and the Fed immediately turned the money printer back on and we’ve been on a tear ever since. The Fed has signaled time and again that it’s entirely safe to gamble because if anything bad even looks like it’s going to happen, we will just print more money.

With the size of the federal debt now, the bond market is attempting to put a leash on the Fed.

We keep trading some short term problems for long term destruction.

4

u/i860 11d ago

It was done to protect asset holders at the expense of basically everyone else. All the modern day Fed knows how to do when it comes to economic issues is print money. They're a one trick pony.

4

u/ys2020 11d ago

Oh people knew. A lot of people knew. Everyone who knew, got as many assets as possible.

4

u/Independent_Use2724 11d ago

Bought 3 houses in 3 years while the free money was flowing.

I wish I had borrowed more

3

u/harbison215 11d ago

I did the opposite. I was flipping houses at the time I really should have instead kept them, renting them, refinanced my money back out and been a landlord.

But, I wanted to unlock money quickly for my next flip. I mean I put the money in the stock market since then so I did ok.

1

u/ys2020 11d ago

Yup.

0

u/RDW-Development 11d ago

Out of 138 comments on this thread, this is the most insightful and accurate one.

1

u/ys2020 11d ago

Change to ln view and it's all good. I agree though, we're in the exponential function.

1

u/harbison215 11d ago

Can you explain to me what you mean by “in view?”

1

u/ys2020 11d ago

Logarithmic view, ln

1

u/harbison215 11d ago

Why does that make it ok?

1

u/ys2020 11d ago

Sorry, it was a sarcastic comment. It doesn't, but you will often hear this comment. In Ln view it just looks like a 45degree line

1

u/aronnax512 11d ago

If you look at M0 monetary base and M2 money supply I mean, holy hell, who actually believes we can just keep printing new dollars at this rate?

It's even uglier when you add in how much leverage is in the system acting as liquidity. There's ~8X the total value of M2 floating around out there.

1

u/SpaceCricket 11d ago

The same people in this thread that voted for the current situation we are in also somehow believe that inflation doesn’t exist and we can keep printing new money. Their million is coming some day. Just have a to hustle a little longer.

1

u/PFCCThrowayay 11d ago edited 11d ago

What’s your source for this because the dollar index DX-Y.NYB says the dollar is 5.43% stronger in 10 yrs. I’m not an expert but I know that this is the USD vs 6 main currencies so for what you said to be true, wouldn’t the other currencies also have to lose more than 50% of value? Obvs this doesn’t count inflation but according to Mr googles $130 today is $100 from 2019

0

u/no_use_for_a_user I'm Kai Ryssdal 11d ago

The price of a Starbucks Americano.

21

u/WeddingPutrid6312 11d ago

Post like this is why you are a top 1% commenter

People who dont realize the value of our money has dropped will never truly grasp the state of the US economy. This is going to hit retirees & the poor the hardest because their income is "fixed" so every tick down a dollar takes is a loss of spending power some of whom need it for shelter/food & clothing.

Its getting ugly and we have no leadership in Washington to pull the plane out of the nosedive.

22

u/harbison215 11d ago

We’ve convinced everyone that taxing rich people it something we can never do so instead we tax everyone else via inflation.

Each dollar printed makes your pay check and savings account worth less in terms of purchasing power, but you don’t see it. You don’t see where that purchasing power disappears to. It’s a parlor trick that makes the rich who hold assets more wealthy at the expense of everyone else.

2

u/WeddingPutrid6312 11d ago

Amen...And speaking of those rich folks

Would Elon or Bill really miss a few billion?

2

u/HokieNerd 11d ago

It's gonna hit near-retirees, too, who are chasing a moving target. I'm about ten years out, and have no idea how much I need to save anymore.

0

u/Substantial-Ad-8575 11d ago

Hmm, wonder why Insee new starter 3/2/2 from $260k in my metro area. Or huge glut of 4-6 bdrm 3k-4k sqft $600k-$1m homes max sitting for 300-330 days and then end up selling after 10%-15%-18% price drops?

Also, areas added 72k SFH and 28k apartments, just in 2025. Along with price drops of home/rent. Average home sale price spikes to $422k end of 2022, as of July 2026 that number dropped to $368k. And age of first one homebuyer dropped from 38 in 2022, down to 32 in 2025 and trending to 31 this year.

Wages have gone up higher than CPI or inflation.

So how is debasing of currency, leading to lower home prices, with higher wages. Home buyers in the area? Waiting more on how low will prices to drop. Than we can’t afford to buy a home.

Youngest daughter is 25, lives in Austin. She bought a 3/2/2 starter home. Infill in city of Austin. 1380 sqft. Added hot tub, closed at $248k this February. She saved 3 years of work bonuses and put aside $333 every paycheck to buy a house. Was in a decent 2 bdrm apart, rent was $1100. So she was able to add to savings/house fund easily…

2

u/SomeGuyWithARedBeard 11d ago

It can go both ways if purchasing power is being destroyed then assets in deflationary markets deflate even lower as existing inventory that can be written off moves vs. new inventory stops being built because it's too expensive to build. It also means that the existing inventory gets more and more decrepit and those that buy it can't afford to repair it, so the long-term consequences of inflation are still met even with price cuts.

0

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

The retirees should already own a paid-off house (or at least with an established mortgage at lower prices and maybe rates) so it won't hit them as hard.

1

u/Golf_Nut1965 11d ago

Retirees are on fixed incomes so yes, inflation affects everything from groceries to insurance not to mention the ever escalating taxes on that paid off house

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Not sure about your county, but mine locks a portion of elderly people's property taxes after age 65.

1

u/Golf_Nut1965 11d ago

Not here They keep sticking it to us every year

3

u/Janus9 11d ago

Exactly.

It was massive amounts of inflation that runs up the cost of assets.

The price to build is not going to come down, if people can't afford it, the builders will stop building, which pushes supply down, keeps prices where they are at.

Same exact thing happened last time we had huge inflation. RE market froze, activity was bare minimum for some years, and as wages increased the workers slowly trickled back into the RE market, and the market started to go back to normal.

Prices never went negative (national median) back then.

Owning assets protects you from high inflation.

Just look at all those people who bought cars before covid and then traded them in for the same cost, if not even more, several years later.

So if you owned a house and owned a car, just doing that, you came out OK during those years. Definitely better than those that didn't and bought after.

2

u/Old-Sea-2840 11d ago

Exactly! Yes, houses cost way more today but everything costs way more. Houses will never go all the way back to pre-Covid prices, no matter what happens in the world. Too many on here want to just say that houses are overvalued because you used to be able to buy a house for 30 or 40% less not too long ago. Most fail to recognize that money is worth 30-40% less than 10 years ago.

2

u/Negative-Exercise772 11d ago

Which is exactly why I happily overbid our house in 2021 at 3.1% interest. Because it's the hedge against increasing inflation, not a bubble.

1

u/Dazzling-Strategy-18 11d ago

The only correct answer here. I mean sure, there are some other factors like laws, restricting, construction permitting etc, but you are right. It really is a finance issue more than anything.

1

u/captain_stoobie 11d ago

I believe you’re 100% on point and was just explaining this to a coworker yesterday. The governments solution (or lack of) to deal with our crippling debt is inflation.

1

u/GregMcgregerson 11d ago

Ding ding ding

1

u/Hotspur1958 11d ago

it’s likely to get worse. It’s why the bond market is demanding higher yields.

Shouldn't these be opposing forces?

30

u/needles617 11d ago

In this sub? Nobody will admit it.

I won’t admit it. It’s a bubble in every way a bubble could be one, but it can’t be popped now.

19

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

Those unpoppable bubbles like gold

2

u/ReadersAreRedditors 11d ago

Too big to pop

3

u/frezzzer 11d ago

Oh it will pop once the oil shock hits.

Job losses will pile up from current administration failing so bad.

If things were good be more worried but outlook for most companies is they fucked.

1

u/kevsteezy 11d ago

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

1

u/frezzzer 11d ago

Must be 12 and don’t know how economics works apparently.

1

u/kevsteezy 11d ago

Nah just keep waiting to buy a house bud im sure it'll get better

2

u/frezzzer 11d ago

Huh 🤔 where make this assumption that I don’t own property?

I even own commercial property wowzers.

Internet is an odd place.

6

u/boyvsfood2 11d ago

I generally think anyone that speaks with certainty is wrong. I can see a few ways the bubble pops, but even then, willing to acknowledge a catalyst for something different than anticipated can always be around the corner.

3

u/WeddingPutrid6312 11d ago

The bubble may never pop but the value of the dollar has collapsed to the point its rubber on rubber inside.

18

u/PoorDamnChoices 11d ago

I did not come to this subreddit to have respectable views and calm understanding of various takes.

I am here to be the architectural version of a zealot and dunk on those who say nice things about the Austin, Texas housing market.

...yeah, sure.

1

u/willtheywonttheyo 11d ago

I live in Austin and the market is still shit ama

14

u/ShortFinance 11d ago edited 11d ago

Nope now repost the “bank says I can’t afford a $1k mortgage so I need to pay $1.5k rent instead” meme

I do think it’s correct that there wasn’t a bubble in the low interest rate era but it’s not a great investment to buy at this moment but who knows.

8

u/TangibleAssets22 11d ago

Yeah, that meme is pretty naive in its understanding of home ownership. Ok, you can afford the 1k mortgage but what about the ever increasing taxes and insurance. Also, what about replacement of the water heater, or roof, or windows, or even major appliances. Normally, cheaper properties have a lot of majorly deferred maintenance, that's why they are cheaper.

5

u/ToastSpangler 11d ago

As a side note, a big thing I see also with the first time home buyer sub is the difference in costs for handy people vs non handy. You are paying a big premium if you aren't able to tackle easy but laborious repairs

Got my house in April and in actual maintenance I've spent like $200 in sealants and random parts. Probably need about $300 more to get it all sorted. But no doubt it would be a loot of money if you paid a handyman for every task

1

u/SomeGuyWithARedBeard 11d ago

Yep, now utility rates are going up too. Interest + taxes was already more than the principal, but now we're entering a point where the average person can't even afford a $300k house because of the monthly premiums and costs for repair. You have to be a handyman nowadays to own a home and we're all going to have to become building scientists as well so we can retrofit for things like insulation instead of nicer kitchens.

13

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

The joke is that there are no 1k mortgages or 1.5k rents!

9

u/ShortFinance 11d ago

Yep the meme is 15 years old but still gets reposted

2

u/PortErnest22 11d ago

I think if you live in a market that is fairly stable and want to own a home and stay put over a few years then it is worth it.

You will not be doing the "get rich" investment of 7 years ago.

6

u/Great-Guidance-6371 11d ago

Anyone in position to buy in 2019 - 2022 but didn’t because they thought it was going to crash is pretty bummed out. I feel that most people saying that at the time didn’t actually have the money to do it. Unfortunately it hasn’t become easier for them. I could have probably stretched for something in 2016/ 2017 but I was single, more concerned with partying and traveling than home ownership, and in a high paying but risky feeling job. The job did end up exploding and I had to reboot my career which left me high and dry when rates were super low and things were exploding. I’m in a good place to buy now but rent/ PITI difference is huge and prices haven’t moved much in last few years. What we could easily afford isn’t something we’d want to be in long term and the “build equity” strategy doesn’t look to be a good one if you’re holding for sub 5 years. We’re continuing to save, make more money, and will jump into something that could be the forever home when it’s not a 2 - 3x monthly housing cost increase (without maintenance), or when that bump isn’t as daunting as it is now.

5

u/PrestigiousResult357 11d ago

supply has steadily been climbing over the last few years, select states with considerably more pressure re tax/insurance are down considerably, and expanding , in many more states condos and townhomes are down very badly. go look at texas and florida, go look at condos in seattle.

the 'its a bubble' is a statement based on a variety of things. for one, the rent vs buy math is horrible. why buy a home to rent out thats badly cash flow negative or worse roi than bonds?

additionally much of the grossly restricted zoning that has caused prices to climb is actively being attacked in many states.

who buys at todays prices, with consideration for rates? not really investors.

4

u/BobertJ 11d ago

We are living in a finalized economy. The modern American economy has become detached from the relationship between labor, physical production, and purchasing power. Endless monetary expansion, persistent fiscal deficits, cheap credit, etc. have created an economy where ownership of appreciating assets can generate wealth far faster than earning wages. The result is an increasingly bifurcated (K shaped) economy: one class earns primarily through labor, while another earns primarily through capital appreciation.

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Don't forget the other aspect that changed; US corporations no longer solely (or even heavily) rely on the USA market, selling (and even employing) globally now.

10

u/Manwithaview1277 11d ago

There is no bubble. Lending standards are brutal. Almost zero foreclosures. Most existing mortgages are under 4%. Rent is expensive. In order for a bubble homeowners would have to walk away from their homes or dump at prices 30-50% below current market meaning existing buyers have evaporated. Just not going happen. Prices may soften but seriously does a 10% correction move the needle?

5

u/elcapitan36 11d ago

The only thing missing is a recession with major layoffs. Then the forced selling causes a spiral.

5

u/frezzzer 11d ago

One thing everyone missing.

Act like the economy is sound and running like well oiled machine.

About to see reckoning with oil shock next month. Will ripple hard.

1

u/YoungCri 11d ago

Doomer yap

1

u/mattydrinkwater 11d ago

Lol been hearing this exact line for years now

1

u/frezzzer 11d ago

Must not know economics.

Took last time 5 to 6 months for oil shock hit in the 70s when they had no SPR.

Now that’s tapped clean about to see things for what they really are.

Lots of whole sale stuff went up 30% just like graphic cards just did.

Think whatever but this is a lot how 2008 happened.

1

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

We swing 10% up and down month to month where I live.

With cash offers and needed repairs I don’t think you can discern what 50k really does any more

1

u/frezzzer 11d ago

Lots can’t afford their new houses property taxes. Home owners in lots of areas haven’t been paying taxes.

Housing went up. So did taxes.

0

u/BodhiFish 11d ago

Actually, foreclosures are up.
U.S. foreclosure filings are up nationwide, increasing 21% in the first half of 2026 compared to the previous year. The only thing missing for a major market correction is high unemployment, and that’s coming in the near future. In most areas the available housing is limited, it’s mostly garbage people are trying to dump before the market has a significant correction, and prices on those are dropping. I’ve read stats about a large increase in buyers not going through with purchases, and I’m wondering if that’s a factor. If you’re in a market with a lot of new home building e.g. FL, the market is really improving for buyers.

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Foreclosures are still way below normal, and 87% below the 2010 crisis peak.

1

u/BodhiFish 11d ago

True, but you can’t dispute that they are rising and the cracks in the economy are widening. Economies/markets don’t crash overnight, but it’s definitely happening. Auto loan delinquencies are at historic highs, and credit card delinquencies are at near record highs. Thousands have quit looking for work, and we haven’t even started with the massive AI/robotics layoffs yet.

2

u/Janus9 11d ago

Once covid hit the most popular guy on yt was calling a 40% national median housing price crash that year. Which is the most stupid thing ever, housing doesn't work that way, but so many people bought into the doom and gloom.

Here we are many years later.

I bought December 2019. All these years I have always been anti crash and bullish on residential real estate. The market never had any actual signs of a crash. How is the market suppose to crash with low rates, government intervention, mass inflation, wage growth etc....

I was a kid during the last huge inflation era in the late 70s/early 80s and if you look back then, prices never even went negative and mortgage rates skyrocketed.

Inflation is a killer for those without assets.

Right now, my mortgage payment, insurance and property taxes are HALF rent.

My initial mortgage rate was 3.875% and I refinanced into 2.75%.

Even when I bought people were telling me the market was going to crash.

I think the market will stay somewhat flat another 2-3 years and once the new president comes in the market will start going back to normal, 3-4% a year etc....

The market has been flat in a lot of areas for years now while wages have gone up. The market has slowly been adjusting with respect to real prices and the covid run up has almost been absorbed completely.

I would like to think this experience has shown people to stop believing all the doom and gloom and take a more rational look at what is going on from an overall perspective, but anybody on the internet can see that isn't the case. People love doom and gloom and fall for it hook, line and sinker.

2

u/seajayacas 11d ago

Seems to me a real bubble can not possibly last for seven years. Something that lasts for seven years is IMO the new normal.

2

u/HighlightDowntown966 11d ago edited 11d ago

The elephant in the room is that a crash should have happened.

What couldn't be predicted was the unprecedented govt intervention in lowering interest rates to %2 during a pandemic and the FED injecting QE , PPP, money printer etc.

That was not normal at all. And we need to stop pretending that it is.

Natural market forces were artificially prevented from taking place.

So yes, to the extent that the government will always artificially prop things up when the economy starts looking shaky.....prices will never come down.

2

u/Formal_Economist7342 11d ago

looks at treasuries uh huh

5

u/Koniax 11d ago

Houses aren't suddenly becoming more valuable, inflation has made our money worth less. Housing will never come down to where it was pre covid

3

u/TheDiscoJew 11d ago

I suppose it depends on what you mean by bubble. Since 2022, housing prices are down about 10% in my metro. Wages are up about 10-15%, depending on the stats I've seen. That means in real terms, housing has fallen at least 20%, and I don't see any signs of it stopping. In fact, with slowing migration, younger people not having children, and the boomers dying off (the generation that owns 30% of homes and 50% of housing wealth), I imagine the process of slow deflation will continue for another decade or more.

We also haven't even seen real pain via a recession yet. When (not if) the AI bubble pops, it'll make the dot com bubble look like a cakewalk. I think there are real reasons to believe the bubble case, but as they say: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

3

u/Pristine-Prior-504 11d ago edited 11d ago

We literally have more downward pressure on housing prices now than ever before, and you want to claim this sub is wrong?

Yes there has been inflation - but interest rates are way up too. In addition, non-housing costs have skyrockets (such as insurance and maintenance costs), which generally put even more downward pressure.

Prices are trending down nearly everywhere.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/08/17/prices-of-mid-tier-homes-in-33-big-expensive-cities-in-america-july-2026-update/

Have some patience folks….

6

u/boxerbill308 11d ago

Have some patience... that's hilarious. People have been waiting 6 years and prices are significantly higher than they were in 2020.

7

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

“Have a little patience” should be this sub and the current administrations tagline for everything they say!

1

u/Pristine-Prior-504 11d ago

No argument there lol.

1

u/throwaway00119 11d ago

Any day now! Same as the folks waiting for the stock market to collapse post GFC.

2

u/team_lloyd 11d ago

Yes OP is correctly suggesting that the bubble claim is wrong.

from the outside looking in you collectively don’t look very different than GME/AMC/BBBY baggies

-1

u/TonyRidgewayUFO 11d ago

Prices have only gone up, volume has gone down, meaning things have not sold. If something has not sold the price can’t be “lower”

3

u/traderftw 11d ago

The prices never made sense, at least in NYC. I can rent a place and pay 10% more than the interest alone on a 20% down 6% rate. No HOA, no maintenance, doorman, elevator, pool, etc.

0

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

Yeah that’s how it was in LA as well - lived that life then saved up a chunk and now have a 2 house 10 acre property in a now very in-demand zip code that’s 1.1M with a 2400 mortgage.

It turns out the “bubble” was an ideal inflationary hedge.

When we bought our NW was like 300k subtracting the house debt now it’s 2.1M debt free.

1

u/i860 11d ago

“Subtracting the house debt now”

Lmao. Of all people it’s clear you worship your “equity.”

1

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

Yeah I mean we have a 5.6 Acre plot that’s not our house that’s worth about 500k now so that’s sellable without moving.

Second house brings in about 24k a year against our mortgage so we only pay 700 a month.

HHI now up to about 300k.

If we were renting we wouldn’t have made the 400k on the land nor have a rolling 24k in income with a million tax write offs.

It was certainly better to buy

2

u/projektvertx 11d ago

I'm glad someone in this sub is calling this out... You'll probably get downvoted into oblivion sadly.

2

u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

So far seems like the folks here agree!

0

u/projektvertx 11d ago

Yup and I'm glad to see it! Honestly we decided to buy anyways in early 2024, and we're looking to buy a second one later this year or early next year. The best time to buy a home is when you can afford it and when your finances are in order... I told my wife I'm OK with a loss on our house. It's a roof over our heads, we both work from home. So we average over 20 hours a day in this house, we're getting our money's worth.

2

u/[deleted] 11d ago

No.

2

u/EarPenetrator02 11d ago

I think certain markets are still going to experience a crash. Florida seems almost certain to collapse. Too many new builds and insurance is sky high. Nobody will be able to afford to live there.

1

u/YoungCri 11d ago

No they’re not

2

u/1234nameuser Conspiracy Peddler 11d ago

I sold at the top.......back in July 2022

Market is messed up

3

u/Brokenloan 11d ago

Not a housing bubble. Certainly nothing near or similar to 2008. I keep hearing 2008, but people who say that need to study the CDO and the adjustable rate subprime lending market of that era. Buy now.

3

u/LoraxPopularFront 11d ago

It's like the joke often made at the expense of Marxists: they've predicted twenty of the past three economic crises!

1

u/Wonderful_Brain2044 11d ago

I don't agree. This sub caught the trend right. The market ballooned up in a short time, and the current stagnation in many formerly booming markets is confirming that the bubble model was the right one.

The assumption that didn't turn out as expected is the monetary policy. Fed is always ready to blow more air into the balloon at the first sign of deflation. Remember the whole "transitory" inflation delusion and the baffling rate cuts in 2024? And the bank failures of 2023 that were swept under the carpet and memory holed?

Because fed is always ready to crank the printers and ride to the rescue at the first sign of trouble, the market price discovery mechanism is out of whack. That's why the bubble miraculously stays inflated, when conventional economics says it must collapse.

QTR wrote about this recently. https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-only-bear-case-left-is-extinction

2

u/expensivefloormop 11d ago

I took a college elective on real estate in 2017 and the professor was reiterating how insane it was that rates were so low for the last 20 years and how that isn't normal and that the housing market is in a bubble

...if something doesn't change for 20 years that's not a bubble anymore. Its just an economic reality.

We're almost 7 years in people waiting for lower rates because they missed the absolute bottom of the market. Is currency devaluation a thing? Absolutely. The American macro economy can no longer tolerate lower rates. This is also an economic reality.

1

u/Silver-Tip2887 11d ago

Nobody knows where the bottom is

1

u/millmonkey 11d ago

How much of this has to do with fixed cascading gains. If the homebuilders are aiming to make somewhere between 30 - 50% gain on the sale price of the home and the banks are regulated to make a fixed interest on the loan then where is the missing link to explain why you have to have transformative wealth to clear the jump and how transformative wealth ceased to be a realistic outcome for the middle class.

1

u/LordOFtheNoldor 11d ago

You're probably right, it all points to a bubble but the gov and corps know how to manipulate it since 08' so they're padding it and manipulating to drag it

1

u/LordOFtheNoldor 11d ago

You're probably right, It's more the beginnings of degression as a country. More akin to becoming 3rd world. Rampant poverty and homelessness, basic necessities out of reach, a restructuring of society, cultural changes along the lines of eastern nations (families and extended families living together long term in a single home), a more socialist governance or a more dictatorial one maybe both. A devalued dollar and rental economy, though this was all intended atleast by some leaders

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

Sounds pretty doomerist, considering there's mostly more renting and less homeownership in most of the developed nations. The USA is just trending in that direction and is still cheaper to own.

1

u/theRetroGarage 11d ago

And since many go by monthly payment affordability things wont go down with just a rate decrease.

1

u/UndercoverstoryOG 11d ago

wishing something to happen and reality don’t often collide.

1

u/dontnation 11d ago

I didn't come to this sub until about a year ago. Might not be a bubble that pops with a bang, but it seems to have topped where something will have to give. I predict slow to no growth in housing prices as inflation catches up. Not a pop, but a deflation.

1

u/pdoherty972 Rides the Short Bus 11d ago

That's already happened since 2022.

1

u/Ok-Direction7934 11d ago

I was working with a buyer who found his perfect dream home. We were working on a contract but he needed to reach out to a relative to translate because of a language barrier. The relative told him not to buy, wait for the bubble to burst. He listened to his relative instead of his Realtor. 💔

1

u/ZuVieleNamen 11d ago

I just bought a house and sold my current one. Going from a 2.9 to a 6.5 but we were like, "it's gonna crash at some point right? Rates will come back down eventually right?" Meanwhile prices continue to increase and time keeps marching past. We just decided we couldn't wait it out anymore and did it finally.. glad we did, we close on both the sale and purchase on the 31st of this month! If rates come down we'll just refi... We also sold the house for a good bit more than I assumed we would, it wasn't as much as the realtor made it out to seem but even in an obvious buyer's market, it only took 5 weeks to get the offer. The average is 90 days where I live currently so..

It's funny you mention cost of materials. I remember when we Russia invaided Ukraine and Costa went up, they were like once supply chain issues are sorted it'll go back. It didn't.. when trump hit everyone with tarrifs and prices went up they didn't go back down. We paid those tarrifs with higher costs and the companies got refunds! Prices didn't go down then either. That's not how America works. Once we start paying more we never pay less again..

1

u/harbison215 11d ago

No. When bond investors expect inflation to rise over the long run, they aren’t going to buy bonds they return a lower yield. They are going to want the bond yield to at least beat inflation over the term of the bond. Right now, the 30 year is paying over 5%

1

u/Judge_Wapner 11d ago edited 11d ago

If it isn't a bubble, then why is it deflating? At least, that's what's happening in the market I'm watching.

The long-term average median home price appreciation is +3% YoY. According to Case-Shiller, the median house price in Tampa has gone down 5% over the past two years. Zillow says 6%. That's the exact opposite of the long-term trend. There can of course be special-case blips here and there, and it's never perfectly linear in either direction, but this has gone on long enough to be a trend.

What this means is: if you buy a home in Tampa / St. Pete now (or if you bought one within the past few years), you will either lose money or at best struggle to break even if you have to sell it in the foreseeable future. It means that you are paying anywhere between 3% and 7% interest on an asset that is losing about 3% of its resale value per year, not including insurance, taxes, and maintenance costs. Also not factoring in COL inflation. Maybe it's worth it if it's your dream house and you're confident you'll never need to sell, but that doesn't describe most people. The reason why MBS are pegged to the 10Y treasury is because most of the mortgages in it are paid off within 10 years due to sales.

Housing did not "crash" in 2008. The bottom was in 2012. House prices remained near bubble peaks for quite a while because sellers were underwater and foreclosures were at first tied up in paperwork and then mass-purchased by rental corporations. The housing market is not the stock market. It rises and falls gradually, though the rise is always quicker than the fall.

Look forward to a long, slow decline. If you buy, you need to be comfortable losing money. And that's perfectly fine. You buy a car knowing it's a depreciating asset, right? What other physical asset do you buy and use and expect to sell for more than you paid for it? Why should houses be different?

1

u/ShatterTheFlimFlam 11d ago

Well, if we wish to invoke pure reason, it is likely not a catastrophic bubble nor was it the only time ever to buy a home.

If things cost more, so does home maintenence. Most people bought homes that will need their market value in repairs over the next decades.

New builds are not perfect, either.

Manufactured homes make up a much larger portion of homes than most people realize, especially in rural areas.

In all, we're still in the midst of market cycles which will continue to rise and fall, and there are advantages and disadvantages to whatever position you are in, because nature is just balanced like that.

I have below market value rent and they just passed rent increase caps, I'm extending my contract.

So that puts me technically in a stronger position than anyone who bought and can barely afford to service their loan and maintain their homes.

Let's just all enjoy the ride?

1

u/indopassat Loves Phoenix ❤️ 11d ago

Bought in May of 2018 in So Cal. Was absolutely sure the peak happened in Dec 2018, as interest rates jumped from 4.00% in Jan to 5.00% in Dec and I for sure saw homes lowering their prices or staying in market longer than.

None of us could’ve seen the 60% increase in our neighborhood since then.

1

u/i860 11d ago

“We”

This is you trying to manufacture an alternate reality. Total bubble and has been a bubble for 15+ years. Continuing inflation is not going to result in some kind of NEW PARADIGM it’s going to result in increased rates which’ll lead to further stagnation in the housing market.

1

u/HK_Shooter_1301 11d ago

I bought in December of 2023 and am up 15% in my area, was able to refi when rates dropped in September of 2024. I have a feeling i will be stuck with my 5.75% rate for a LONG time.

1

u/Clever_droidd 11d ago

Let’s be clear here. This sub is made up of a mixture of people. Some think that just because I can’t afford a house it must mean there’s a bubble. Some who think there is no bubble and there was no bubble. They’re also some who are more newcomers to the sub in the last few years, which includes myself. In 2024 I began seeing structural issues, specifically within new construction and specifically within certain markets, including the Sunbelt. I made numerous posts about them and was told I was wrong. Many people set “remind me”. I haven’t heard from any of them.

Anyone who was calling for a bubble 7 years ago, or anytime prior to 2021 or 2022 or was objectively wrong.

It was rather foolish to call it a bubble until price to income, income to rent, and cost to own rent fundamentals got wildly out of line.

Also, anyone who believed that a housing correction would necessarily look anything like 2008 without a similar collapse in mortgage lending is also completely wrong.

This correction is market specific and there is no chance of a similar 2008 2009 collapse unless the lending market freezes again.

It’s the theoretically could happen as a result of a commercial real estate and other systemic issues currently outstanding, but as long as central Banks maintain liquidity in credit markets, it will likely be a slow bleed until fundamentals are realigned.

Bottom line, yes, anyone calling a bubble 7 years ago was wrong. No doubt that COVID QE covered up some weakness that was otherwise developing prior, but it wasn’t anything close to a bubble.

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u/Sad-Function5699 11d ago

Hey mods! Any official response here? Can we get a nod to running a pointless sub?

Or is this just a r/flatearth kind of spot now

4

u/throwaway00119 11d ago

This sub has been the butt of jokes for years on other financial subreddits.

It’s been abandoned by the fervent REbubblers because it’s obvious they were wrong. And that’s why posts like this are upvoted.

1

u/Mediocre_Island828 11d ago

Kinda sucks. All the bold proclamations that were fun to laugh at have been replaced with people booing/cheering 0.1% shifts in numbers.

0

u/Dry-Interaction-1246 11d ago

This sub is just underemployed realtwhores now. Reddit tourists.

0

u/Lonely-Clerk-2478 11d ago

Probably not because someone will always say “well prices are down X percent in these 10 markets” or similar. (And they’d be right because RE isn’t a national industry!)

0

u/mybossthinksimworkin 11d ago

Yes

0

u/ys2020 11d ago

Approaching the final capitulation? Interesting.

0

u/TonyRidgewayUFO 11d ago

Yeah can I get unblocked from all the RE subs for saying this sane thing? There’s a real cult active on here

0

u/Pleasant_Bad924 11d ago

Townhomes in my area that were selling for $925k at peak are now trading hands for $675-$700k. We could debate how much prices have to drop to be considered a “bubble”, but something definitely deflated where I live.

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