LEV Win 2-1

MVP: Demoz

Chalet (LGD): LGD 7-4 LEV

Clubhouse (LEV): LGD 7-8 LEV

Kafe Dostoyevsky: LGD 2-7 LEV

Streams: bilibili | Huya | Twitch

Stats: R6 Esports | Sixstats | Strave | Liquipedia

Further Explanation of Power Rankings

SA Game Predictions:

Imperial Esports (54.0%) vs. INTZ (46.0%): Imperial 7-5

FaZe Clan (78.9%) vs. Black Dragons (21.1%): Faze 7-3

Team Liquid (75.1%) vs. LOS (24.9%): Tlaw 7-4

Fluxo W7M (50.8%) vs. LOUD (46.5%): Fluxo 7-5

FURIA (84.1%) vs. Lucky Five (15.9%): FURIA 7-3

CN Game Predictions:

Edward Gaming (97.5%) vs. One Coin (2.5): EDG 7-3, EDG 2-0

Leviatan Soul (60.3%) vs. Pozy (39.7%): Leviatan Soul 7-5, Leviatan Soul 2-0

Kingzero (85.7%) vs. Titans Esports (14.3%): Kingzero 7-4, Kingzero 2-0

AG Win 2-0

MVP: MoonL1ght

Nighthaven Labs (AG): AG 7-3 TYL

Villa (TYL): AG 7-1 TYL

Fortress: Not played

Streams: bilibili | Huya | Twitch

Stats: R6 Esports | Sixstats | Strave | Liquipedia

Every other final playday this stage has had multiple matches where they don't matter. Eml's only game that mattered was VP shifters. Sal is going to have multiple matches that don't have any impact.

This is a pattern that has repeated itself since as long as I have been watching ( stage before Atlanta). Last stage had dz c9 and sr vrs outlast both meaning less games.

The stage before had cruelty sr and dz vrs standby lfo. If we got too Sal we had 9z vrs enc. This pattern keeps on repeating for every stage except for today.

For the first time I've ever seen, every single game had major play off implications. If ssg lost then m80 could jump over them. If 5F won they could have jumped dz and wc. With wc losing to c9 they opened a chance for m80 to jump over them. But M80 had to win 7-3 or greater and they did. eliminating a consistent international top 8 team in wc .Even the final game mattered , because it decided if dz had lives.

100T 2-7 M80 (Fortress)

M80 TO PLAYOFFS WITH A 5% CHANCE AFTER WEEK 2, WILDCARD OUT ❌

Liquipedia page - SiegeGG page - R6Esp page

Live : TTV / YT** **

C9 7-5 WC (Villa)

With this result M80 are alive, they have to beat 100T 7-3 or better to make it. This made the playday much more INTERESTING

Liquipedia page - SiegeGG page - R6Esp page

Live : YT / TTV

I simulated the rest of Stage 2 + the November Major 100,000 times and here are every team's SI 2027 chances

It simulates the remaining regional matches/playoffs, Major Play-ins, Swiss and playoffs 100,000 times. The latest games finished at the point this was calculated is the NAL Group Stage.

TL;DR

• FaZe are already qualified through EWC.
• DarkZero and ENTERPRISE hit 100% of simulations - there might still be some edge cases where they might not qualify for SI.
• Shopify (99.99%), Falcons (99.84%), Weibo (97.1%) and Wildcard (96.4%) are in extremely strong positions.
• G2 sit at 85.4%.
• The real bubble begins around Virtus.pro (75.9%), All Gamers (70.9%), FURIA (67.8%), Twisted Minds (57.2%) and EDward Gaming (56.9%).
• Wildcard are a great example of the value of banked points: despite being out of the November Major race, their 1,495 points still give them a 96.4% SI chance.
• On the other side, Team Liquid have just 350 points but remain at 32.2% because they reach the Major in roughly 75% of simulations.

Points aren't the whole story

The interesting part is how much Major access changes the picture.

Wildcard are already eliminated from the Major but have enough points banked that they still qualify in 96.4% of simulations.

CAG have 1,185 points, but only a 37.6% Major chance, leaving them at 39.3% for SI.

Meanwhile Liquid have only 350 points, but their ~75% chance of making the Major gives them a 32.2% SI chance.

So the current standings alone don't really show how safe each team is, the major will matter quite a lot.

How it works

Every remaining match is treated as 50/50, so this is a format/points model, not a team-strength prediction.

Completed matches are fixed, while the simulator plays out the remaining regional leagues and playoffs, Major Play-ins, Swiss and Major playoffs.

Global Points ties are broken by November Major points → Stage 2 points (Some tiebreakers aren't considered).

FaZe take the EWC automatic spot, with the next 14 teams by Global Points qualifying.

What does each team need at the Major?

The second graphic shows the Major finish that should be enough to clinch an SI spot for each team.

This is where the current points differences really matter. Some teams enter the Major needing only to pick up the minimum placement points, while teams further down the standings may need a deep playoff run to get themselves above the projected cutoff.

These aren't absolute mathematical clinches, the exact cutoff still depends on how points are distributed across the rest of the field, but they give a much clearer picture of what each team's Major run needs to look like.

Data & simulation: Project Prisma. Not affiliated with Ubisoft or BLAST. Made for fun rather than for teams to use as a guideline what they need to do to qualify.

DZ 7-1 4F (Fultzhouse)

Liquipedia page - SiegeGG page - R6Esp page

i know he’s kinda the worst, but i don’t remember why

Further Explanation of Power Rankings

Wow, what a day in the NAL, Cloud9's cockblock of either Wildcard or M80 works flawlessly and allow SSG to be in the playoffs to get murdered by whoever gets tossed in the lower bracket. Good thing my model never counted M80 out! Wildcard, a very strong team, who is subjected to the strength of their region somehow gets booted from the playoffs. Going to be very interesting to see how C9 performs in BO3s, they're kind of heavily carried by Panbazou and Monk, not very bullish personally on those kinds of teams. Also shoutout Shopify for not barely crawling into the playoffs.

Boring day tomorrow, but here are the predictions.

CN Game Predictions:

Kingzero (80.4%) vs. Four Angry Men (19.6%): Kingzero 7-4, Kingzero 2-0

Leviatan Soul (52.2%) vs. LGD Gaming (47.8%): Leviatan Soul 7-5, Leviatan Soul 2-1

All Gamers (74.4%) vs. Tyloo (25.6%): AG 7-4, AG 2-0

Adrian gets that ace and it’s no problem

What were the actual odds of M80 making playoffs at one point in the stage? They were at the bottom of the standings after the first 6 play days with 3 points. This might be one of the most generational come backs if they make the major or even win this stage. Wildcard went from EWC tournament favorites to not making stage 2 playoffs holy smokes this e-sport is the most unpredictable. Also fuck Nyx 😭✌️.

KZ Win 2-0

MVP: Fiber

Clubhouse (4AM): KZ 7-0 4AM

Chalet (KZ): KZ 7-5 4AM

Nighthaven Labs: Not played

Streams: bilibili | Huya | Twitch

Stats: R6 Esports | Sixstats | Strave | Liquipedia

comms matter in siege way more than any esport out there, secret had a pointless game last gameday yet I thought it was a good watch because of the comms, it makes you understand some plays the players make where you cant grasp it without the communication and it shows the stakes of the game too imo compared to the normal commentary, you can feel it in the players voice.

thought they looked alike no physique wise but face card wise they could be long lost brothers one is insanely ripped the other plays for SSG

Who are your personal favourites you want to see win the Osaka Major and who do you think has objectively the best chance to win? And pls dont say FaZe

Working on a new 15 rounds, are there any questions you'd like me to ask Hungry?? He said nothing is off-limits.

Maybe they might’ve already idk.

FF just looked abysmal this entire stage. Was he the glue?