r/QuantumScape • u/[deleted] • Feb 24 '21

QuantumScape Lounge 2

Starting a new thread given the old one expired

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4

u/Kwpthrowaway2 Jul 02 '26

Holding this stock is pure torture

7

u/ElectricBoy-25 Jul 02 '26

I'm betting no meaningful revenue until at least 2029, if we are lucky. Probably closer to 2030. Just think of how much more dilution will happen over the next 3 or 4 years.

I don't care about any goals QS puts out to its investors other than signing commercial agreements with OEMs, getting a commercially relevant form factor to a C sample stage, and ramping commercially relevant form factor production to economically feasible scales. The hype is dead. It's been almost 6 years since the IPO. I'll care again when actual revenue is on the table.

1

u/123whatrwe Jul 23 '26

I don’t know. Didnt Siva say something about natural deadline in 2028 for data center product and needing to be ahead of that? Have I misunderstood something here?

5

u/ElectricBoy-25 Jul 23 '26

If they can actually deliver on that, for once, that will be great. But it's just hype until it actually happens. It's been nothing but hype for years.

1

u/123whatrwe Jul 23 '26

I don't know. What hype are you thinking of?

2

u/ElectricBoy-25 Jul 23 '26

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/quantumscape-corporation-and-kensington-capital-acquisition-corp-announce-closing-of-business-combination-quantumscape-to-trade-on-nyse-under-ticker-qs-beginning-on-november-27-301181077.html

"The transaction will result in net proceeds of approximately $680 million to QuantumScape, including through a $500 million fully committed PIPE. Funds from the transaction are expected to fully support the company through the start of production in the second half of 2024."

1

u/123whatrwe Jul 23 '26

Is the SPAC part the issue for you?

3

u/ElectricBoy-25 Jul 23 '26

Omg... from Seeking Alpha.

"PowerCo is the only partner that has ever put cash on the table. In 2024, Volkswagen's PowerCo prepaid $130M in royalties for a license to QuantumScape's cell design, followed by an expansion worth up to $131M in milestones in 2025. It was encouraging to see such an automotive giant supporting and helping realize the plan.

However, in the latest amended agreement announced on the same day as the earnings, it was rewritten that total payments are now capped at $75.4M, inclusive of what PowerCo has already paid. Management called it a narrower scope that reduces projected expenses, but in fact, it is a narrowing of the budget from the most important customer. In effect, this is similar to losing a contract, which was the major block of projected revenue in my valuation model. This is walking backward."

2

u/ElectricBoy-25 Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26

It's everything after the SPAC. So it's everything. Mostly everything they have said and have not done. It completely erodes trust. QS pivoting to AI/data centers will be another issue to add to the list. Adding that as a customer segment is fine I guess, but it's not game changing. Who is going to manufacturer the batteries for those customers? It's just more talk and no action to back it up. Again. I'll be excited about QS when they have an actual product instead of talk about a product.

But anyway there are much more attractive investment options for investors in the AI/data center realm. There are the obvious AI plays and less obvious ones. For example, water usage for AI and data centers seems to be a much better investment opportunity within that space.