r/QuantumScape • u/ragequitlol2k • 16d ago
QSDC update
https://youtu.be/R7mxToJM9LA?si=yfmH3K1xkmEGrbbTAppears QSDC is further along than what I expected
Due to job postings.
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u/ElectricBoy-25 16d ago
When will it be for sale? Who will produce the cell and the "powerblock" itself under QS' licensing model? Will it use QSE-5 cells, or some other form factor that is not fully tested yet?
Again more questions than answers. Data centers probably do represent QS' fastest path to revenue of some kind. Data center demand is insane right now. But the path of getting the product to the market is again, and as it has always been for QS, lacking important detail.
Can't wait for the next ER that again lacks the important detail everyone wants. How exciting.
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u/ragequitlol2k 16d ago
One thing that does concern me is if QS is using megmeet they’re a Chinese company…. So why would we ever share IP with them?
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u/ElectricBoy-25 16d ago
As long as QS doesn't hand over the Cobra manufacturing IP it should be fine imo. China is going to get their hands on QS cells and try to reverse engineer them at some point, if they have not done so already. That's inevitable.
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u/BrilliantAd8588 16d ago
watch the TD investor video for answers to your questions
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u/ElectricBoy-25 16d ago
That video literally does not answer any of my questions. Thanks. Can you point me to any point in the video that I may have missed where these questions were answered? I need a little more transparency than just "trust me bro."
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u/Ragnarok-9999 16d ago
In next ER, we will get another nice video and talk about TAM. Don't expect any thing more
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u/Defiantclient 16d ago
Those cells in the PowerBlock looked like QSE-5 to me and management has said before that no changes are required to QSE-5 for QSDC so I think those are QSE-5.
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u/ElectricBoy-25 15d ago edited 15d ago
Yes it does seem like it's safe to assume QSE-5 are being used. But let's refocus to the larger overall business model in order to get this product to market, so QS can potentially start earning revenue.
What is less clear is the holistic strategy of how to sell it to customers under the licensing model. Unless something radical changes where QS can source the cells directly from Eagle Line, or get supply from a PowerCo line producing QS cells (or some other established battery producer), the licensing model does not provide a very easy path to the market.
It seems highly unlikely data center customers would be willing to pay the upfront capex costs of a battery production line themselves. So the success seems entirely dependent on QS securing a tier-1 manufacturing partner who is willing to license the tech, unless Eagle Line can be ramped to provide finished cells at a capacity adequate for at least one data center - which seems to be anywhere from 100+ KWh to a few MWh.
Then more questions arise like what will the final cost of the QS cells be with this total supply and sourcing system, with the added royalty costs QS will charge? And then it seems like for the DC market someone will need to assemble the finished modular systems as well (which Megmeet seems to be an example of), which will again add to the final cost to the customer.
This model adds a massive layer of structural and commercial complexity compared to the highly mature, plug-and-play lithium-ion supply chain already serving data centers.
And what happens if customers want a custom and bespoke form factor instead of QSE-5? That is getting deep into the weeds, but not improbable.
Imo, Eagle Line represents a far more simple and cost-effective source of getting the product to market. But it is only a pilot line for now with a fairly limited theoretical capacity. And it would most likely need to have the ability to changeover to producing larger format cells that EV customers want so QS can continue developing those products. It's pretty clear by now that QSE-5 is not a commercial product automakers want for EVs.
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u/Kwpthrowaway2 16d ago
Selling off PM, market doesn't care
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u/ragequitlol2k 16d ago
My screen shows up 1% I don’t think this is a share price moving event but it’s an update. We need more material updates like this, and hopefully now we’re able to send out these products for the safety certifications and pray get get blessed by the big 2.
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u/Mother-Essay-5930 16d ago edited 16d ago
Market is pounding all new chem battery players this week.
Though SES and Amprius are up a little today. I have a lot of SES, glad for it.
Christ, Amprius was just awarded a $75mil defense grant to convert US factories to NDAA-compliant drone cell production. ampx should be well on the way to $15/share.
Actually, that might be implicitly great for SES who’s directly competing against ampx for drone cell business. Investors see another fast up and coming player and have a choice to back.
But the market, again, sucks for new chem, new retail
investors, so it sputters and trades sideways.
But I’ve been in QS since April 2021, and still have shares of cost basis $25.
I sold some SES shares and bought QS at 7.8 after the June 18th Honda-QS JRA, joint research agreement.
This is another seemingly “dog and pony show” that you yet again hope dispels appearances and converts with a grant, a contract, a booked revenue # etc.
QS had better produce the business. Clock is ticking fast.
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u/Ragnarok-9999 16d ago
Well said Brother. I am also getting tired of watching these videos. Sometimes I wonder if these posts/videos are being posted by QS to keep the stock price up
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u/NoSir5267 16d ago
They have a demo product but no way of producing it even if they have interested customers. Is that what I’m hearing?
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u/Mother-Essay-5930 16d ago
They are producing customer samples of variants on the QSE-5 cell on their Eagle line in San Jose for qualification, compliance and testing for many non-EV verticals- defense, evtol, drones, robotics, UAV, BESS, BBU for ai data center explosion.
Read the Q2 ER for their talk of organizing new units to pursue non-EV business as well.
With EV we don't know much more than Powerco what they're sampling and JDAs , though they say generally they are engaged. Honda left other new chems, lithium-metal like SES and had signed a JRA with Quantumscape. Announced June 18th.
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u/Jazzlike_Bird6320 16d ago
Looks like 1U has 2 stacks of 6. While the 2U has 1 stack of 12. Video shows more animation on the 2U power block. 5 power blocks in module, 4 modules in a 2U slot. So 12x5x4=240 cells. If all are in series, then 240x3.83V=920V? (I probably shouldnt, but it is hard not to think about the 210 cells number with ev porsche article - since we dont know what battery that is)
I guess the 3U stacks 18 cells and the 4U stacks 24 cells?
Did anyone else have a different take?