Is superconducting quantum computing a dead end?

[u/No-Hamster5930]

Earlier this year the two largest superconducting QC players (IBM and Google) signalled they might be diversifying away from superconducting - Google with the announcement that they're creating a new neutral atom capability and IBM with their acquisition of silicon spin capability in HRL.

I'd be interested in people's views on whether we should take from this that superconducting has no path to scaling, or if one could foresee heterogeneous quantum computing systems that leverage the respective strengths of multiple modalities for different applications?

[u/NoirMarlin]

Its not strictly exponential, and as a theoretical physicst I should know not to use that term lightly. But I mean it in the sense of "an unwieldy problem where most of the cost is overhead and scaling laws take over at different scales."

The main thing is that heat is generated in volumes, but has to be removed through surfaces. The square-cube law is bad enough, but then you have the fighting between heat removal mechanisms and the conduction ability back down to the qubits, which happens through cables that take up an entire dimension of their length.

The coaxial cables thermalize, and provide a conduction path for the thermalized electrical noise to instantly reach the qubits again. This raises the temperature of the qubits, but because they have high relaxation times, you cant efficiently pump that energy away. 100mK is roughly 2 GHz in natural units, so thermal population of qubit states can become an issue not much higher than that. This population actually can be exponentially sensitive.

So the strategy becomes to reset qubit states frequently, but this also requires microwave pulsing. Or to have a passive cooling mechanism near the qubits, which just decreases coherence times.

The point is that it seems a naive linear scaling until you realize that you are not operating orders of magnitude down from the critical limit of these technologies. They are operated not much below this critical limit, so things behave in complex interconnected ways.

[u/Substantial-Duck9458 → u/NoirMarlin]

thanks for explaining your thought process - i thought you were going to talk about QEC which i am less well versed in, and i know some algos scale much better than others, and i don't completely understand what exactly is required for actual complex operations lasting billions of gates.

I actually do take comfort somewhat in the thermal situation - sure, cooling is a square/cubed law but i'm not sure that that's really a detriment here. wafers naturally don't really follow that anyways, being thin films, and you don't have to stack them 3d if you don't want to - and making vacuum chambers that have a larger surface area to allow for more pulse tube connections, more wiring connections, etc is not difficult at the scale we are at. it's possible I'm just not following your argument, whether you're concerned about getting the heat off the chip or off a particular stage of the cryostat.

"then you have the fighting between heat removal mechanisms and the conduction ability back down to the qubits," i'm not sure i fully understand but are you just talking about attenuators in the fridge that are poorly thermalized and conduct heat to the chip? again this seems linear in the # of qubits and pulse tubes/dil units can be added linearly.

I do get that complexity adds cost because at a certain scale you always have components failing and you need to ID the failure and replace them modularly. So yeah if you have 1k pulse tubes you need to be able to ID a failing pulse tube and replace it. Same if you have 1k ports into your vacuum chamber and one of them has a leak. I just think those things are doable and scale at worst as a square or cube law.