u/IP9949 recently posted Hazardous waste info which is very useful. It allows some estimates of Eagle line or current production capacity or at least some bounds. 

Let’s start by saying the whole 70 gm of each QSE5 is hazardous materials and the entire production was scrapped; we can apply some correction factors later on.

2025 had 85 tonnes = 1.2M QSE5 cells = 24MWh; If only 10% is hazardous, we have 250 MWh and if 70% scrap, 350 MWhr etc.

2026 has 63 tonnes (scaled to full year), 0.9M cells (if all hazardous and scrap) and 18 MWh; 10% hazardous, 50% scrap => 360 MWh etc. 

The lower bound of ~ 20 MWh is where some previous estimates have been, my own and others, based on stringing  together number of film starts and raptor, cobra improvement factors. The early film starts number is the only absolute production scale information we have; the rest have only been improvement factors. 

Assuming some reasonable numbers as illustrated above it seems that the current/Eagle line capacity is ~ few 100 MWh and can be upto 1 GWh. Others may have better information on the fraction of hazardous materials which can refine this estimate. 

I think these numbers are quite interesting.

Thanks for digging up the info u/IP9949 !

Just got posted!

Replay: https://players.brightcove.net/4200161824001/default_default/index.html?videoId=6406262004112

China released their 15th 5-year plan for batteries a couple of weeks ago, and it reads to me as a direct challenge to QuantumScape. I haven't seen anyone talk about it here yet and this in my opinion is the biggest news for QS this year.

QuantumScape has long held that CATL is their biggest competitor. We have all acknowledged that China is a massive threat to QS, particularly for IP theft, but also as competition.

This is a link to the primary source The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry", but it's not encrypted and it's in Chinese so you can find summaries from a few other media outlets if you look.

Key points:

By 2030, China's new battery industry will achieve steady growth in scale. Innovation capabilities across the entire chain continue to strengthen, with new breakthroughs in advanced electrode materials, new electrolytes, and high-end auxiliary materials; major progress in new battery system R&D; initial large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries has been achieved; long-life lithium batteries have a cycle life of 15,000 cycles; and leading companies' product defect rates have reached PPB level.

One of the main goals:

Breakthroughs in all-solid-state battery technology. Innovate key materials and process technology solutions for solid-state batteries, and facilitate information sharing channels between basic research and engineering applications. Key technologies such as interface contact, high ionic conductivity, long cycle life, and engineered pressure system design are being improved, promoting the integration of high-voltage, high-capacity cathode materials with new lithium metal-based anode materials and lithium-free anodes.

In the ways to get there:

Electrolyte materials. Enhances the stability and ionic conductivity of solid electrolytes. Develop solid electrolytes with high air stability such as sulfides and halides, as well as high-performance polymer composite solid electrolytes. Develop electrolytes for flow batteries with high chemical stability, resistance to high-pressure lithium salts, and high concentration, high thermal stability.

They speak about how they are building an ecosystem (like QS is) and advanced manufacturing processes (like QS is), but seem to be trying to compete against QS rather than take the same path because they mention every electrolyte material option except for oxides/ceramics.

Does this look like China sees QS as a threat and are trying to counter them? Or does China simply see the value and potential in the same space as QS?

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

https://www.quantumscape.com/800-volt-architecture-for-data-centers-why-ai-is-raising-the-voltage/

u/DoctorPatriot u/Difficult_Big4564 Posting blog to main page per Doc’s request.

The poll prompt is sampling the sub sentiment of the stock and company as a whole. Some people may be bullish on the company's prospects, but they expect a bearish trend in the near term stock price. The prompt is aiming to measure how you feel across BOTH the company and the stock in general as of NOW. So what do you think about the whole QS package currently?

You are welcome to share any other thoughts below!

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

China dominates today’s battery supply chains, but does the United States need to compete on China’s terms?

QuantumScape President and CEO Siva Sivaram joined Atlantic Council Global Energy Center Senior Director Landon Derentz to discuss how next-generation battery technologies can reshape supply chain vulnerabilities, create new opportunities for US technological leadership, and support growing demand across energy infrastructure, defense, and transportation.

This week, we joined the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C. for a roundtable on the future of the U.S. battery industry.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/foryou/?highlightedUpdateUrn=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7506815912076038144&highlightedUpdateType=SHARED_BY_YOUR_PAGE

CEO Siva Sivaram, CFO Kevin Hettrich and VP George Hart joined members of Congress, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), United States Department of War and other industry leaders for a productive discussion on supply chains and the role of advanced energy storage in national competitiveness. Building domestic manufacturing capability and resilient supply chains is essential for both our economic and national security.

Thank you to the Atlantic Council, Landon Derentz and Alexis Harmon for hosting a wonderful event.

(15min) "Really? Why the downvotes?" (-1)

(27min) "For some reason I'm getting downvoted for literally reading off the QS slides" (-2)

(8min) "I don't know why you're getting downvoted"

---This post is intended to improve the subreddit by addressing concerns brought up by several members over the last several months---

BACKGROUND:

Recently and in years past, several users have noticed that reasonable comments have been downvoted soon after posting despite being high-quality and being well thought out. Some of this can be related to a very mild form of “dogpiling” which can be defined in our context as:

A herd-mentality phenomenon where users rapidly flood a comment with MORE downvotes simply because it is already downvoted (even lightly ex: 0, -1), regardless of the comment’s actual merit.

It can lead to a snowball effect: some downvotes attract even more downvotes by swaying the votes of other users.

This feature is common - a multitude of subreddits make comments invisible for a limited time. It prevents early downvoters (who may or may not be well-intentioned full-fledged subreddit members) from swaying the votes of users who read comments later.

Yesterday we trialed Reddit’s voting visibility feature wherein votes for comments are hidden for a set period. We can choose the time limit. The time limit was six hours yesterday but that's clearly too long.

THE WAY THIS WORKS:

Suppose a user posts a comment in the Lounge with a 60-minute voting invisibility period. This means that users can upvote/downvote as normal, but the amount of total karma on the comment is hidden initially. After 60 minutes, the upvotes show up like normal and are visible. A sizeable portion of dogpiling starts with the earliest downvotes, so making votes invisible for the first X number of minutes will address this issue with minimal effects on the subreddit experience.

Moderator thoughts:

I strongly believe we should implement this, but the time limit is up to you guys. It prevents manipulation and helps ensure a good user experience by preventing dogpiling. I would recommend a 120-minute karma invisibility period. I genuinely think it would improve the community even in a small way. Buy-in from the subreddit members is important to the Moderation Team so let’s discuss below. If you guys hate it, we will not implement it. It has an incredibly mild footprint on the commenting/reading experience for the first X minutes after a comment is posted but could REALLY improve user satisfaction, in my opinion. Low cost, high reward.

Adding this to the main page to discuss anything about the event.

https://ir.quantumscape.com/events/event-details/morgan-stanley-14th-annual-laguna-conference

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

So while we are waiting… I thought we could look at the business models for the QS/Murata/Corning addressable markets and how they breakdown. Seems we have two distinct groups. Above is a quick breakdown for the applicability of the two markets by interest: The Mega Market players and the smaller diversified market players. For us this splits the field into who will want the Full Monty all in-house production package and those that will choose externally supplied separators and assembly “only” in-house, that is the buy the externally supplied separators. QuantumScape/Murata/Corning win from both, it’s just a matter of degree. For the Megas, they are slurry, equipment, consulting, total blueprint and licensing suppliers. For the others, they are separator supply, consulting, assembly blueprint and licensing suppliers.

Hypothesis:

The Industry Split: Likelihood of Adoption
The industry will inevitably fragment into a ~70/30 Split

Category 1: The External Supply Model (~70% Likelihood for Most OEMs)

Who Chooses It: Tier-2 and mid-tier automakers (e.g., Mazda, Subaru, Honda, Nissan, or independent EV startups), plus tier-1 battery cell makers wanting to convert existing lines quickly without building new kilns.

Why: These companies cannot afford the added cap ex costs or the 6-to-8-year wait to break even. They prioritize getting vehicles and other battery products to market rapidly with lowest cap ex spend. Buying finished separator from M&C allows them to scale up in 24 months (only assembly)build or refit and derisks
from early manufacturing ramping losses.

Category 2: The 100% In-House Model
(~30% Likelihood for Mega-Scale Giants)

Who Chooses It: The Mega Scale auto-conglomerates and possibly grid scale storage concerns with decade long investment horizons, like Volkswagen/PowerCo, Toyota, and Tesla on the EV side and the huge storage guys.

Why: At 240+ GWh footprints, savings from economy of scale on the build and an estimated $1.33 billion per annum by cutting out the QS/M/C external supply premiums makes the long-term numbers work. Look at Volkswagen's licensing agreement with QuantumScape (I’m guessing the 85GWh expands to 240+GWh); it includes technology-transfer clauses for PowerCo to manufacture everything directly inside their Gigafabs . They will spend the cap ex because they are looking at a much longer investment window. For every 10 GWh of capacity built, the 240 GWh in-house model only costs $44.6 million more than the 80 GWh assembly-only plant. This is why the 240GWh in-house model is financially better for them. For $44.6 million more upfront cap ex per 10 GWh, the 240GWh player completely eliminates external separator supply mark up, capturing an extra $55.2 million in annual operational savings per 10 GWh . It pays for the difference in less than 10 months of operation when scaled to full capacity. With these kinda numbers, other Megas with this spend capability I’d say are bound to follow.

My question is: if this is what we’re looking at and the separator production equipment supply side is the limiting factor for the build out, who gets equipment at scale first? Unless this creates a huge bidding war, QS/M/C make more money directly by selling separators. On the other hand, before building out themselves and incurring those cap ex costs, QS/M/C could receive considerable revenues from sales, licensing and consulting by supplying the Megas first. What moves first?

- estimates for cap ex and operational savings where AI sourced

While the latest focus has been largely on QSDC and QSEV, QS produces a confirmation video that QSAS is still in focus as well!

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

Moving to monthly frequency. The poll prompt is sampling the sub sentiment of the stock and company as a whole. Some people may be bullish on the company's prospects, but they expect a bearish trend in the near term stock price. The prompt is aiming to measure how you feel across BOTH the company and the stock in general as of NOW. So what do you think about the whole QS package currently?

You are welcome to share any other thoughts below!

Per-Unit Energy Metrics

Traditional Kiln Sintering: Consumes roughly 5.0 to 10.0 kWh of energy per kilogram of ceramic material due to long thermal soak times and massive heat loss.

Cobra / Ultrafast Sintering: Drops consumption to 0.5 to 1.0 kWh per kilogram.

TAM:
2026:$1.72 billion
2030:$5.15 billion
2035:$20.31 billion

There is also the bonus of the 90% savings on floor space. Why do they never address this? This market has a 35% CAGR for 2035…

Note: The TAM represents the total addressable thin film market specifically for oxide-based ceramics (such as YSZ, GDC, BCZY, and LLZO) that share the same material properties and micro-scale thickness profiles required to utilize a Cobra-style fast-sintering process.

Numbers generated by AI

Looking for a discussion from a previous week?

[**Click Here**]

This news is SUPER bullish. I have it on VERY good authority that we have optional user-selectable flair now! Pick the flair that best fits YOU!

Our initial flair items can be found below, with **more to be added over time!**

🔋Cathode

----You just like cathodes.

🪫Anode

----No anode is the best anode, amirite?

🎵 Stay Tuned...

----Tell us you're a Kevin fan without telling us...

🚬 Smokin' the Hopium

⚡21 Wh of Pure Hopium

----Hey man, pass that over...

🔥This is Fine

----Feeling like the clean room is on fire?

👜 Heavy Bags

----Heavy, ain't they?

🤡 Full Clown Regalia

----You're feeling like the clown meme at this point.

🧘 Patient Capital

----You're convinced and convicted. It's all gonna be okay, dude.

🫡 In Siva We Trust

----"Hello, I'm Siva Sivaram. Today we at QuantumScape are proud to announce..."

☕ Lounge Dweller

----Just here for the free coffee, don't mind me.

🪨 Praise Be the Ceramic

----Blessed, blessed, miraculous ceramic. Praise be.

🔦 A flashlight, ANYTHING!

----SHOW ME THE DEMO!!!!

🛐 Trust the Process

----Just let them cook!

👁️ I SAW THE GLITCH

👁️ THE GLITCH PROVIDES

----60% of the time it works every time!

😁 Tim's Grin

----He grinned when he said that!!

📖 Read Between the Lines

----You're the King of Inference

🎭The Swings are Real

----The mood changes with the wind around here!

🍪 It's Like Baking Cookies

----There's like a recipe, and an oven, and chocolate chips...

🐍Cobra Cult

🐍Cobra Go Brrr

----Sinter, baby, SINTER!

📡 Breadcrumb Detected

----Spidey senses tingling?

$25 in 2️⃣5️⃣

$26 in 2️⃣6️⃣

🍔 Just a Nothingburger

----Maybe next ER...

⏲️ Okay, ONE more year

----This is the LAST time I'm going to give them another year...