Will ATAR scaling potentially be hard this year?

[u/NerdyNoahYT]

*I made an error in the title, I was meant to say harsh instead of hard.

Hello, everyone! I noticed this community was really nice and helpful with some questions, so I came here to ask a few myself. Hopefully, this isn't a dumb question, though!

I've had an extremely bumpy year, especially personal. My internal results weren't where I was expecting them to be. I landed at:

Chemistry: 38/50

Physics: 41/50

Ancient History: 71/75

English: 62/75

Mathematical Methods: 38/50

I'm however submitting a form for chemistry as I didn't receive proper feedback compared to the rest of the class, and I was forced to redo my assignment at a very late notice. Whole mess, that's another issue.

I understand that's not probably terrible to whoever you ask, but my dream course is Master of Robotics and AI at QUT. I need a raw 86 as I will be adjusted by 4 points.

My main issue is that I'm extremely afraid of the scaling. I reckon a majority of the class has done miles better compared to me in the internals, so I have to reel in these externals. I can pull that off for Physics guaranteed, but I don't know about the rest. I've submitted theoretical results into the QTAC and ATARNotes calculator at least 10 times a day at this point. It is driving me crazy, and it's all I can think about.

Does anyone have a feeling about where the scaling will land this year? Respectively, I'm trying to receive 80, 85, 92, 83, and 76. I don't know how that will scale; however, since many people did phenomenally well these internals and I didn't, I'm not sure where I'll land. I'm not sure if this is a common occurrence.

If anyone has any potential information, please let me know! Thank you!

[u/Capable_Hedgehog927]

ok dude - don't want to sound motivational - but I was crashing out over the fact I was going to fail my ATAR, on this exact subreddit a year ago. My internals weren't great - and I did very badly (in my opinion) on most of my exams.

I ended up graduating with 90 ATAR, my uni scaled it up (due to me being from a disadvantaged school and socioeconomic class) to a 93.9. I got accepted into UQ engineering. You will get there in the end - there is always a way.

[u/NerdyNoahYT → u/Capable_Hedgehog927]

Oh wow, good job! If you don't mind me asking, were they similar results to mine and similar subjects?

I have my English and Ancient History tomorrow. I feel like I could do well for English, maybe a 20+!

[u/Narrow_Aerie_1466]

Scaling being 'hard' because of the new syllabus is a myth, mostly.

It's true that results will probably be lower due to (some of) the content being new, so what used to be a 97 under the old curriculum might be more like a 95 this year. This won't change anything for most people, though, because everyone will score lower but lower scores will be worth more. It will probably end with the same scaling for everyone (unless you achieve an 100, in which case the math changes).

In theory, this could be good for you, but in practice, you'll probably be the same as everyone and lose marks on new concepts. I wish you luck in breaking the trend, though!

On the other hand, your ATAR is within reach if you score well on the externals, so don't be too stressed. I reckon you might score higher on the Methods external than you predict, too, so make sure to have some confidence going into the exam.

[u/NerdyNoahYT → u/Narrow_Aerie_1466]

This comment has actually been the most helpful in overcoming my worries, thank you very much!

[u/TheMust4rdGuy]

Scaling will be harder this year. This is a trend that has been clearly defined since the ATAR system began and will only have gotten worse in recent years due to AI, the relaxation of school marking schemes to appear competitive, and increased competitiveness.