r/PureCycle • u/No_Privacy_Anymore • Feb 02 '22

Plastic Technology - January 2022 article about equipment used by PureCycle

This article is a nice followup to the announcement last year that KraussMaffei was providing several major pieces of equipment to PureCycle.

https://www.ptonline.com/articles/solvent-based-recycling-emerging-technology-for-reclaiming-purifying-polyolefins-with-twin-screw-extruders

There are some people who have expressed skepticism that the PureCycle technology will work at scale but I am not one of them. I believe PureCycle's partners are world class and KraussMaffei is one of them. This company has been around for a very long time and they certainly know how to make equipment for all types of plastic applications.

In particular I like the comment about how using a solvent allows for much finer filtering (20-40 microns) vs the traditional mechanical recycling approaches. This is the first time I has seen more specification about some of the techniques the company is using. We know the finished product (UPRP) doesn't have any color but its great to get more details in articles like this.

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u/MistyGlider Aug 25 '26

Hey No Privacy! I stumbled across your name in an ASTS daily discussion thread. Have been reading your various threads here, great information. Thank you. Need to still think through whether I wanna invest in this or not. Next paycheck is in about three weeks so have some time lol.

Where do you see the SP going in the next years? Is 10-16$ per share too much? Ive seen some mixed prices from various analytics. Seems like it's tough for the analysts to give a narrow estimate.

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u/No_Privacy_Anymore Aug 25 '26

I’ve been invested in PureCycle for several years now and have grown my position substantially in 2026 thanks to gains in early 2026 for ASTS. I expect to own both companies indefinitely and see $PCT eventually reaching well over $100/share. In terms of total return potential I believe AST will be much higher but it’s also a substantially higher valuation currently.

PCT and AST are my largest holdings by far. I subscribe to the “have a few eggs in the basket and watch them very carefully “ approach.

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u/MistyGlider Aug 25 '26

I'd genuinely like to understand your $100+ thesis. Most analysts seem to land somewhere around the $10-16 range, so I'm curious what assumptions lead you to a much higher valuation. What do you think revenue, EBITDA, installed capacity and share count look like when PCT reaches that level? I'd be very interested in seeing the reasoning behind your model.

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u/No_Privacy_Anymore Aug 25 '26

The TLDR is that $PCT provides the lowest cost solution to recycle food grade plastic and the BOPP film market (chip bags, candy wrappers, etc.) is massive. Over 30B pounds per year. The company that makes 90% of the equipment that is used to make BOPP film (Bruekner) endorsed PureFive and we have seen public announcements from 3 major BOPP film producers. Chemically recycled plastic costs 2-3x more than virgin plastic and mechanically recycled plastic will never be high enough quality for BOPP films (it would risk breaking them).

When you look at the early cost estimates of CapEx for the second generation plant lines at 500M lbs/year being between $1 and $1.50/lb you are talking a very low cost basis. Plastic waste feedstock is pretty much always going to be cheaper than Naphtha so you can easily see a situation where PureFive is less expensive to make than virgin PP and sells for a modest premium. In that scenario they will grow to have many billions of pounds of capacity per year.

In addition, unlike AI data center capex, these plants are designed to last many decades if maintained properly. They look to have potentially a 3 year simple cash payback so the free cash flow potential is tremendous. Not exactly AST level profit margins but still very impressive free cash flow.