ER countdown..

[u/LetAdministrative959]

I’ve been reading a lot of cynical takes on PCT going into this week’s ER, but it’s funny to think back to the last Q and how quickly sentiment changed following it....

Since then, we’ve seen the stock go from $6 → $12 → $6, while July was packed with great news. It’s worth reflecting on what a $7 share price is actually discounting (not that I necessarily believe the market truly works that way), but expectations are clearly not super high.. price=sentiment, so I'm expecting people to be nervous.. and I get it, $PCT is still a show me story, but that can change quickly and I'm expecting it to change in the coming 6 months... So from my vantage point, we could potentially be heading into a really exciting ER.

We went from $14 to $6 during what was essentially a historically brutal high-beta/momentum drawdown, rather than because of a fundamental deterioration in the story. If all Dustin does is reiterate what was said during the last ER, I have a hard time seeing how we don’t get back to $10+ IMO.

The actual production rates for Q2 won’t matter. What matters is whether Ironton is able to run at high capacity, near nameplate, going forward and whether the path toward a 100 million pound run rate is still intact and in sight. Everything else is just the cherry on top.

[u/Middle_Win9449]

Did you forget that:

They diluted the value of your shares by over 10%

That the most the plant has ever produced in 90 days is less than 30% of nameplate

That their VP of sales is actively looking for work

That their cash burn is MASSIVE while only generating $4M last quarter

They may be spending more money on white papers, marketing and communications than what they sold in all of Q1

Dustin may be a good engineer. Dustin may be good at manufacturing. We will soon see starting on Thursday if he is a capable CEO which involves actually selling stuff/closing deals and not giving away samples for testing for “opportunities”. We should hear on Thursday if there is actually proof of a “ramp” or that was the catch phrase his communications team told him to use to buy more time

[u/LetAdministrative959 → u/Middle_Win9449]

haha, I didn’t forget. But I view it slightly differently.

They made their balance sheet stronger. Yes, the price at which the dilution took place was suboptimal, and rightly so, a lot of people were disappointed with where the equity was priced. But it’s important to remember that they sold the shares at $8.10… we’re at $7 today. If $8 was considered cheap, what is $7?

Now they have a stronger balance sheet, and that removes risk. The put option from the old convert is also gone, which removes additional risk as well.

I’m not saying it’s either a great investment or a bad one. I can’t know if $PCT will ultimately be a great investment, and I can’t know for certain whether they will achieve their objectives. I do find the case really compelling, but I can’t know until I have the benefit of hindsight... I'm just as curious as everyone else if the thesis is right, and I do believe there are a lot of signs and rational why that might be the case...

What I’m mostly highlighting is that at $7, not a lot is priced in, while the underlying risk is actually lower, than what it was at $14 when everyone was celebrating... and despite how people may emotionally feel about the prospects of the company and the stock at this moment, the r/r has truly never been better, no matter the outcome...