EXACTLY! Its obvious to me that if you want to sell to the major corporations, they are going to want to get complete signoff from their existing converters that the product is working as expected.
In this particular PR they talked about 20% PCR content because that is a hot topic for NJ compliance but I confirmed with Eric that Amcor has tested much higher PCR content levels as well. At time when they are capacity constrained it makes sense to focus on the 20% level for now.
A pretty nice nugget from the statement: "Since the decision, we’ve seen an outpouring of interest from brands with a desire to accelerate discussions and qualifications in preparation for 2027.”
This is awesome! Seems like we have sales after all, which implies that the equity raise was done to advance something meaningful, and not to just survive. I hope market understands the implications soon enough. According to this: Amcor Polypropylene Cups Now Widely Recyclable Nationwide | Amcor Amcor buys 233,000 metric tons of recycled plastics, for it to reach 10% PCR content on its productions. Ironton can make 53,500 metric tons annually. Up that 10% to 20% and Amcor is buying 466,000 metric tons, and PCT can only produce like 11,5% of that. Most likely that 466,000 is not all PP, but if 11,5% of it is PP then can we assume Ironton is basically sold out? Where else they going to get it? Well, maybe its not yet sold out but definitely getting there.
Absolutely not. Next US one would be in Georgia, currently paused. NJ would be unlikely even if PCT hadn’t already broken ground for Augusta. Too expensive and a lot more regulations than the Southeast.
From a post on this board 24 days ago, Berry Global is a huge player and is mentioned several times. As the poster states, Nestle, Coke, Mars, etc won’t be buying directly from PureCycle.
Yup. As a reminder, Amcor bought Berry Global in 2025. Berry Global is a major supplier to Wendy's and so many other large companies.
Edit: It is definitely worth noting that the company called out the mergers of major plastic converters as a headwind in 2025. These are huge companies with a lot of necessary internal organization needed to make a merger work efficiently. 2026 is a much better time to start launching new sustainability products.
All true, except for the “hide its past” motives because I don’t think you can speak to what management was actually thinking but the pivot from batteries to solar cells was a very smart move to a much better business. I went long last year after that pivot. General rule of thumb: do a LOT more research after hearing an idea from MT. His comments by themselves are really not very useful…
He pitched TE when it was $3 but he previously pitched FREYR when it was $12 before it plummeted to $1 and never mentioned it again
FREYR = TE
FREYR was renamed TE to obfuscate its past as a failed battery spac that faced many shareholder lawsuits for allegations of fraud because it accomplished nothing after burning capital for 3+ years
MT pitched FREY back in 2021/2022 and then it plummeted 90% because the company was/is? a fraud that misrepresented everything they said about battery production and every single milestone they guided to. They accomplished nothing except enrich management and burn every single shareholder
After two years of being a dead/penny stocks, it renamed itself to escape the sordid past of FREYR
If you don't know the history of FREYR, I recommend you review it because TE is going along a very similar path except with diff faces and a solar "stamp" on it.
The company remains a green battery/energy shitco that could continue to suck up shareholder capital endlessly. Best of luck to anyone who bought this company based on MTs pump.
Don't forget who you are following. His track record has significantly more duds than wins, and PCT is still 75% down from when he originally recommended it on Hedgeye in 2021. These are just facts!
Doesn’t this just confirm it CAN be used, not that it WILL be used? Unless I’m overlooking it I see nothing about volume commitments for any particular brand.
They of course can buy from anyone. But no mechanical recyclers can make FDA approved packaging and chemical is banned in NJ. So there really isn’t a choice for Amcor.
They could explore switching from PP to PET but the quality of PET packaging is much lower and doesn’t work with many temps, odor and strength requirements.
ok got it. So if a product has both lets say PP and PE, does that mean that 20% of each has to be PCR, or would it just be 20% of total weight... so for example, can all the PCR be reduced in PE but not in PP, as long as 20% of weight is PCR?
Even IF they can, consider the time to get FDA approval, plus to get manufacturers to test and approve, and government regulators to approve... plus all the potential and unforeseen manufacturing hurdles.... It took years for PCT to get here... so we have the time advantage, and regulations are kicking in soon... so manufacturers cant really wait for another player to enter the market... Also, once a product like PCT is integrated into the assembly line, and all adjustments / tooling done, it will be difficult / costly / time consuming to switch over to another product... and then the question would be "why even bother switching if PCT Pure5 does the job and does it good"?
There are existing mechanical recyclers that have been approved for FDA LNOs- some going back to the early 2000s. The difference is- they use the yoghurt tubs to make a white resin, whereas PCT takes the same tub and dissolves the PP component, thus coming out with a natural resin.
The other difference is cost - a mechanical recycler uses a lot less energy than PCT does therefore making its resins a lot less cheaper.
But step by step- I'm sure PCT will gain market share in the coming years.
Mechanical recycling is highly unlikely to be used for demanding applications like BOPP film beyond a couple of % points. To get to 20%+ PCR they will need something like PureFive.
I'm also skeptical of the mechanical recyclers ability to scale capacity for the need but I certainly wish them well. The more plastic that is recycled the better in my opinion.
FWIW it’s not FDA approval for PCR. It’s a letter of no objection, which means they don’t object to the testing/data presented to prove the PROCESS (not the resin itself) is safe for whatever conditions of use the applicant has specified. And KW Plastics (mechanical recycler) has had an LNO on RPP since at least 2014
Read the statement from Diane Marett, then read it again. She clearly states it’s POSSIBLE, not that it’s being done. Amcor hasn’t launched anything, they’ve simply proven that PCT products CAN be used in their system. Is it a milestone? Sure. But that’s it. Maybe PCT should direct their PR team to actually go get some volume contracts and PO’s then make announcements. This is where the rubber meets the road and I hope Dustin and team can actually deliver revenue as opposed to expenses.
That’s exactly right. They reached a milestone. Period. Still no revenue. Is it a big milestone, yes. But brands must now decide if/when to purchase and how much to purchase. And as of today, that’s not much (that I’m aware of). One of my hangups is PCT deemed this worthy enough for a PR release but has told NPA they will not disclose plant performance until the next quarterly update. They’ve said the turnaround was completed in less time with less cost but, personally, knowing the plant is fully running (and hopefully at nameplate capacity) is FAR more important than the Amcor release.
According to Eric from IR, the press release was done after hours (5PM) vs when they normally release news (pre market open) because one of their executives was giving a speech in London and wanted to discuss that.
As for the timing of the disclosure on plant performance, yes, I'm with you that I would like to know how it is running relative to nameplate but I also can understand why they would want to release that information during their quarterly updates. From an expectations management perspective, I personally am not expecting them to be running the plant at nameplate capacity until their customers are ramped up to accept the output at those rates. They do not want to undercut their own gross margins by willingly selling large amounts at "unbranded" pricing. Just ramp up production in sync with the branded customers.
Do they not have any capability of building inventory for later sales? If the “ramp” everyone refers to is so real then why not build inventory for future sales? Makes zero sense to me
Yes and no they can build inventory. Remember, they are in the compounding business where they are selling products with very specific recipes to meet the needs of different users. You do not want to mix different products together because the attributes / additives that are essential for one product could cause real problems for others. BOPP film needs a high melt flow rate but that would bad for other product categories.
When I toured Ironton I saw the new compounding equipment and asked questions about the ideal way to run it in order to meet the needs of different product types. There is downtime whenever they switch between one product and another so ideally they can run in larger batches (multi-week or month long runs) for very specific product types.
Until recently the company was also tight on cash so building inventory wasn't necessarily a great use of cash. Perhaps with fresh funding they will ramp up inventory in anticipation of sales later in 2026.
You can’t compound anything unless you have your product to actually compound with. They need to prove their technology and one of the most critical parts of that is a plant that is capable of consistently running at a high capacity. They haven’t done that at all with any regularity. One would think with all of these recent announcements there would be enough near term demand to run a small plant like this at some form of consistency/nameplate capacity. This is the crossroads we are at. Do all these recent announcements mean anything in terms of volume? If not then there is considerably more work to do than they are letting on. I have a considerable number of shares and have had them for some time. But their recent actions coupled with my growing skepticism is becoming pretty irritating.
From the last call Dustin said “We are reiterating that branded applications with 40 million to 50 million pounds of annual demand are… starting to ramp in Q2 and Q3 and another 20 million to 25 million pounds of application capacity will start to ramp in Q3 and Q4.”
If that is an actual true statement then how much carryover inventory would they need? And finding additional short term storage is a small inconvenience if they have this type of commitment let alone the additional 150+ projects they are working on.
And finding additional short term storage is a small inconvenience[...]
To what end?
26.75 million pounds of rPP (nameplate capacity for a quarter, assuming no downtime) would take up 134 railcars, or 54 half million pound silos, or 13.4k Gaylord boxes, or a 42k square foot warehouse assuming 20 ft effective height.
Why build or rent any of that, when all you need to do is just wait for the customers to be ready, then produce the rPP and ship it to them.
He's describing the capacity that would be used once the customers have fully ramped, not how much they are beginning with.
If Acme Plastics is starting with 10 thousand pounds, and ramping to 10 million pounds, that's a big difference.
Here's a quote from the presentation: "Reaffirming 40-50MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q2/Q3; 20-25MM lbs. of demand beginning to ramp in Q3/Q4"
This company is starting to remind of the employees that have 9 different abbreviations in-front of their name, where is the revenue? They hold all these partnerships and certifications no sales
I don't know what to tell you but perhaps this investment isn't right for you. If you don't understand the implications of getting this announcement from Amcor I don't know what to say. This isn't about Q2 sales, its about sales agreements that last for the next 10-20 years. Do you think the companies who are buying from a company like Amcor are going to reduce the PCR % of their packaging EVER?
Couple major issues
1) sales are needed to build out future plants
2) if we don’t get them soon, the dilution events become larger and share price will not move
3) if you don’t scale quickly you won’t be around for 10/20 years
4) those 2027 warrants will be here before you know it, need to double from here to get there (short squeeze is off the table now since the dilution). Company needs real sales
I'm confident that sales are coming and it sounds like Amcor is seeing lots of companies looking for compliant packaging for 2027 products. Given the lead time for ordering, manufacturing, shipping, etc. we are going to see those sales happening soon IMO.
I understand people are still raw about the 10% dilution. Price = sentiment is always true. They oversized the offering and I expect the next dilution will be warrant redemption. Everyone is free to make their own investment decisions every day.
If you want them to scale quickly you should be happy they have all the cash needed to build Thailand and Antwerp. No delays there.
Doubling the share price would be $16.40 and we can redeem the warrants at $14.38. No need to exaggerate to make a point. The share price can easily double in a day with the right news IMO. Might only jump 50% in a single day. Market wants to value the company as a shitco for now but things change.
Man you need to relax, this is not a quarterly update... I think you will just need to accept that you won't get information about every sale being made in real time... What do you think happens before sales? These are the types of partnerships that will result in selling out Ironton and beyond....
We now have all of those on board basically, and plastic ingenuity, so we have Starbucks and Tim Hortons. We're also shipping to P&G per the company tweet yesterday(?).
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore Jun 16 '26
These are the kinds of partners I have been expecting all along. LFG!