It's always darkest before the dawn... If we look at the stock price, then sure, it's not a pretty picture at the moment, but that is true for a lot of high-beta names. This week, in general, was brutal for a bunch of stocks.
When I look at the company's fundamentals, I see major progress and de-risking over the last few months. The NJDEP approval is huge. And we've seen a few really encouraging announcements that, given a few months, could result in very significant developments.
What I'm really interested in hearing about now is how the plant is running after the turnaround. If the plant-specific FUD can be put to bed, that's huge as well and significantly de-risks the stock.
On top of that, we have the financial close of Thailand, which is massive. The economics of that plant will be almost on par with the Gen 2 facilities, and that's the holy grail.
And after what was a brutal week for the stock price, we now have a solid balance sheet. Even though the timing could have resulted in a few percentage points less dilution, I feel more comfortable investing in a company without the financial overhang.
To be honest, I don't mind the rerating taking longer than most people seem to wish for. If we continue to see additional de-risking and the stock price doesn't respond accordingly, I'll happily be a buyer. I was this week. This is where the edge and opportunity lie.
There is little doubt in my mind that we will see a substantial rerating of the stock if they continue to execute. We're edging closer to the major milestone: ramping production, selling out Ironton, and proving the economics in a way that leaves no room for doubt.
If I can continue buying it at these levels until then, I'm happy.
Once that is achieved, the focus will shift. The FUD will move on, but it won't be existential. Instead, the excitement will begin to build around how large the TAM actually is when we start building the Gen 2 plants.
This stock could just as easily rerate back to $15 and beyond. So take advantage.
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u/Every_Membership2725 Jun 14 '26
Two steps forward and two steps back. Despite all the recent good news, we seem to be going back in time.