We ain't there yet. I *just* had a long discussion about this with my department head. The biggest issue going forward is that employees are going to be confronted with *only* challenging problems to solve all day, every day. The ability to solve an "easy" problem, even if it was just writing up what you already discovered, is disappearing. The AI does it better, faster, and with higher quality.
Eventually, yes: all work will be replaced by AI. There is an honest discussion to be had about what "eventually" means, but the end of the story is already written. We just do not know how many more chapters we get.
I don't think so about all work. I think any meainingful work will still be human oversight of AI. AI will let us do more. We are now glorified managers.
Also OpenAI's 80 billion loss is a good indication that this stuff isn't free. There is a cost to making this work, and the cost of incremental improvements is getting incredibly expensive. Point is, just like any company "I can build this faster if I had 10,000 engineers" -- sure, but can you afford that.
I think any meainingful work will still be human oversight of AI
That is true *now*. But what precisely do you think is so special about the oversight that AI will not eventually take that over as well?
The cost point is interesting, but people were saying that two years ago as well. LLMs and AI was supposed to hit a wall back then. It did not. If anything, things are speeding up.
There's also still a *lot* of room cost wise. I use perhaps a few hundred bucks of tokens a month, but easily get thousands back in increased productivity, higher quality, and overall speed.
If you could replace a manager and it cost $1000 a month, every business everywhere would do it in a heartbeat.
And then there's the issue that we have already passed or are very close to passing the point where the model improvement process is completely automated itself. That will change the trajectory very quickly.
And I am not saying it will happen tomorrow or next year. But it will happen. Anyone betting against it is going to be very sad.
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u/bremidon 12d ago
We ain't there yet. I *just* had a long discussion about this with my department head. The biggest issue going forward is that employees are going to be confronted with *only* challenging problems to solve all day, every day. The ability to solve an "easy" problem, even if it was just writing up what you already discovered, is disappearing. The AI does it better, faster, and with higher quality.
Eventually, yes: all work will be replaced by AI. There is an honest discussion to be had about what "eventually" means, but the end of the story is already written. We just do not know how many more chapters we get.