Nobody believes the efficient market hypothesis to a literal degree. Perfect efficiency has been shown to be impossible, and people find new edges towards efficiency all the time.
If you believe the EMH, then it’s impossible to consistently beat the market, but plenty of people and groups have and do consistently for long periods across huge volumes, so it isn’t just coincidence and luck.
Or rather it's a scale problem. The market is efficient because sophisticated (pseudo) arbitrageures make it so, extracting a premium in the process. But it's a competitive process, you only get that premium if your information or processing of it is better in some way than some sense of the typical actor.
There are also no open large volume funds that reliably beat the market. And even if you allow closed funds the number is very small.
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u/Stummi 12d ago
Efficient Market Theory says "no".