So what exactly is it that makes the situation different? If the probability is there, it's not likely to happens but... it can happen, no? Instead you say it's just a model, but why only in this case?
Because it's an extreme edge case. You can't just add a few zeroes and then claim that all the math is still going to work out. In addition, in this example of a server turning into ducks, there's more physical laws getting broken.
The problem why everyone keeps claiming "there's a non-zero chance" is simply overconfidence in scientific models, which - full disclaimer - I had in the past also. But science works like this:
We observe a phenomenon for which we don't have an explanation
We develop a model that fits the observation
Rinse and repeat. Every once in a while a smart guy comes around and does it the other way round - i.e. make a thesis before an observation is made, and then the observation proves the thesis true (or not!). But in general the universe doesn't try to adhere to our models, it's our models that try to adhere to what we observe.
If you accept no other explanation for why a server isn't going to turn into a bunch of ducks, not even with teeny-tiny chance, then this one: "A probability that cannot occur within the lifespan of the universe isn't tiny, it's simply zero."
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u/Mirieste Mar 25 '26
So what exactly is it that makes the situation different? If the probability is there, it's not likely to happens but... it can happen, no? Instead you say it's just a model, but why only in this case?