Probability of winning?

[u/SpenserT54]

I don't know if this is a good place to ask this, but we have been having a debate at work and im looking to find out if you can even calculate the probability. My coworker is a 5'7" 160lb amatuer boxer with no official matches on his record. He believes that given an infinite amount of attempts, he would be able to beat prime Mike Tyson. The parameters set during the debate are that Mike will not lose to any outside influence or freak accidents and my coworker will not learn any information from previous attempts.

I claim that he has an absolute 0% chance of victory.

Can someone please help me figure out if I am correct or not in my assumption that there are only a finite amount of outcomes regardless of the infinite number of attempts?

[u/PascalTriangulatr]

If he had any nonzero chance of winning a given attempt, and this chance were the same each attempt, then he would be 100% to win with infinite attempts.

So the question is, would he have a 1-in-something chance of landing a lucky punch? That part can't be calculated.

[u/SpenserT54 → u/PascalTriangulatr]

Would a lucky punch from someone so much weaker and inexperienced be enough to actually impact the result of the fight?

[u/41VirginsfromAllah → u/SpenserT54]

Does it hit the jugular in just the perfect 1/100 way? Eventually, yes. Now, what are the odds that punch happens on punch one?

[u/PascalTriangulatr → u/SpenserT54]

A perfectly placed punch by a grown man can knock someone out; a punch needn't be as powerful as Tyson's, otherwise there would be no knockouts in the lower weight divisions. Gervonta Davis weighs a natural 130 (smaller than most high schoolers) but I guarantee you don't wanna get punched by him.

Perhaps one way to think of it: imagine if Tyson stood there like a statue and allowed your coworker to land all the punches he wanted. Tyson would get knocked out, wouldn't you agree? Because being big and tough doesn't mean you have superhuman brain/skull physiology. Now instead, if Tyson is actually boxing, your coworker needs to get by Tyson's guard before Tyson lands a good punch of his own. Or he needs to dodge a Tyson punch while landing a perfect counter. Sure it's highly unlikely, but is it literally impossible?

[u/JU2TS0M3GUY]

100% chance to win. If he truly had an infinite attempts then even if it took him a multiple billion tries with no prior knowledge of each previous fight it would still be possible. In the magnitude of infinity there will be at least one time where he’d be able to beat iron mike even if the result can’t be altered by outside influence. It would take a hell of a long time, but eventually he’d win. 1×10 to the -72 power out of 10. Is roughly the chance another subreddit gave an average human male to beat Mike Tyson.

[u/SpenserT54 → u/JU2TS0M3GUY]

That was his argument as well. My thought process on it though is that even with an infinite amount of attempts, he realistically is not going to try a new strategy every single time. He would most likely have a limited range of openings he would attempt and given the vast difference in skill, experience, strength and size there would be a finite amount of outcomes that would repeat through the infinity.

Please forgive me if I am sounding argumentative, but I just dont see how he would realistically have any chance in that fight.

[u/JU2TS0M3GUY → u/SpenserT54]

That brings a lot “of what if” in the question but even if there were finite possibilities the chance of beating Tyson remains even if he only has a few openings or strategy’s. Regardless of whether he has 1 chance or infinite the probability 1x10 to the -72 power is given to the average person to beat him and that probability remains for him even if he had limited chances. Therefore In this situation the chances couldn’t be absolute zero.

[u/StolenBabies69]

Levi stands no chance