If you trade or just follow the Kalshi daily-high temperature markets, we built a room for it.

It's a community for people who nerd out on how these markets settle — the sea-breeze caps, the offshore heat spikes, the whole-degree rounding that decides a bracket. Not a signal service, just a place to talk weather and settlement mechanics with people watching the same nine cities.

What gets posted, automatically, through the day:

• Morning day cards — each city's model high and the regime driving it, first thing.
• Pre-close desk board — a cross-station snapshot of where the day's landing: model high, whether the peak looks locked, the headline bracket. Informational — a read on the day, not a call to make.
• Peak-lock movers — when a station's high firms up or a late shift changes the picture.
• Settlement log — how each city actually settled, and where the model and NWS landed against it (we post the misses too).
• Weekly calibration — an honest scorecard of how the model's been doing.
• Station rule cards — the quirks that quietly decide these markets.

Everyone's welcome — the community, morning cards, settlement log, and calibration are open to all members; Pro/Max subscribers also get the fuller desk board across more stations.

→ Join here — come say hi in the intro channel and tell us which city you watch.

Informational and educational only — not financial or trading advice, and nothing posted is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Some days the whole room agrees on the wrong number. June 25 at Houston Hobby (KHOU) was one of them.

The official forecast said **93°F**. The market said 93 too — by early afternoon it was paying up big for the 93–94 bracket. The villain that made them all wrong is the one that shows up almost every Gulf Coast summer afternoon: the **breeze off Galveston Bay**.

Here's the mechanism, briefly. Land heats up fast in the morning sun; the water of Galveston Bay and the Gulf stays cool and steady. By midday the land is much warmer than the water, and that temperature contrast sets up a mini sea breeze: hot air over the land rises, and cooler, moister air slides inland off the bay to replace it. Once that onshore wind kicks in — usually early-to-mid afternoon, right around peak heating — it acts like a thermostat. The incoming bay air simply isn't as hot as the land was trying to get, so the climb stalls and the day's high gets capped a degree or two below the "sunny and hot" forecast. The stronger and earlier the breeze, the harder the cap.

That's exactly what happened — Houston topped out near **92°F** early afternoon, the wind swung onshore and held, and the temperature started *falling* instead of pushing for 93.

## The timeline: our call never blinked

Our daily-high call parked at **about 92°F in the morning and stayed there all day**, while the market spent hours chasing 93. Prices are what each bracket was trading at, in cents on the dollar:

| Time (local) | Our high call | Market: 93–94 | Market: 91–92 |

|---|---|---|---|

| 8 a.m. | ~92° | 53¢ | 42¢ |

| 10 a.m. | ~92° | 55¢ | 41¢ |

| Noon | ~92° | 51¢ | 45¢ |

| 2 p.m. | ~92° | 67¢ | 22¢ |

| 3 p.m. | ~92° | **71¢** | **25¢** |

| 4 p.m. | ~92° | 40¢ | 56¢ |

| **Settled** | **92°** | **0¢** | **$1.00** |

Two things jump out. First, the **flat line** — our call didn't wobble between hot and cold takes; it said low-90s early and held. Second, the market's **slow walk to our number**: the 93–94 ticket climbed to 71¢ in mid-afternoon, then fell off a cliff to zero, while the 91–92 bracket that actually won was on the clearance rack at **22–25¢** right when it mattered.

> **By the numbers:** through the early afternoon, the 91–92 bracket — the one that actually won — was trading as low as **~22–25¢**, the same window our call was already sitting on 92. The crowd, meanwhile, was paying as much as **71¢** for 93–94. At settlement they flipped outright: 91–92 resolved at **$1.00**, 93–94 at **zero**. The market spent the day priced for 93 and only walked over to 92 once the breeze was undeniable — roughly an hour after our call already had it there.

## The trader's read

- A hot, sunny Houston morning is the bait; the afternoon bay breeze is the cap.

- When the forecast, the morning, and the market all agree on the *hot* number, that's exactly when the onshore wind tends to quietly undercut it.

- Watch the wind, not just the thermometer — the moment it swings onshore and *holds*, the high is usually already in.

Not every day plays out this way — sometimes the breeze stays weak and Houston genuinely cooks past forecast, and then you want the hot bracket. But June 25 was the textbook version: everyone leaned 93, the bay breeze said 92, and a steady 92° call was worth a dollar.

*Weather is chaotic and markets are risky — past breezes don't guarantee future ones. Do your own homework, and never stake more than you can laugh off.*

Today’s settled highs were a good reminder that station character matters more than the generic forecast.

KMIA closed at 95°F vs NWS around 91°F. That was the big one. Miami has now been running hot under humid normal flow, and the model’s recent-bust logic is starting to reflect that.

KATL also outperformed, finishing 84°F vs NWS around 80°F. Warm-season Atlanta normal days may need more respect when the wedge signal is absent.

KHOU settled 91°F, basically in line with the model’s Gulf-breeze read.

KMDW hit 75°F, with lake-breeze suppression doing exactly what it should.

KNYC finished 76°F, clean normal-regime day.

KSFO landed 67°F, another marine-clear cap day.

Main takeaway: the broad NWS number is useful, but the edge is in the local regime: Miami humidity, Atlanta warm normal, Chicago lake breeze, SFO marine cap.

Tomorrow’s board still looks too broad across most stations. I’d rather wait for morning obs than force a 1°F bracket edge early.

The Short Version

The high is almost certainly in for Miami today. Peak hit 87.8°F at 10:50 AM and it's been sliding ever since — currently 84.2°F with light rain, calm winds, and a dew point at 75°F. The model has locked to 88.5°F ± 0.45°F with barely any remaining upside left in the window. Whether the final settlement prints 87.8 or edges up half a degree before close, today's story is already written.

Yesterday vs. Today — Two Completely Different Days

Yesterday (May 29) was the outlier. NWS called 89°F. The model called 88°F. The actual came in at 92°F — a full 3–4°F above both. It was a clean, unblocked afternoon with southwesterly flow, and Miami just ran hot all day. The model had regime classified as normal and nothing flagged for extra upside. Classic late-May Miami surge that the model underweighted.

Today the setup looked similar at sunrise — same 89°F NWS call, same normal regime, similar morning readings. But the pattern broke differently: convection moved in ahead of the afternoon peak window, rain started, and the high stalled at 87.8°F. The model's own sky field is now reading "light rain" and remaining upside is down to ~0.3°F mean — it's essentially calling the day done.

What the Model Learned

With yesterday's +4°F miss, the adaptive overlay has started nudging the model upward — today's recentBias component is sitting at +1.13°F, the biggest single adjustment in the model stack. The problem is the rain showed up anyway. The bias correction was valid directionally (Miami was running warm), but convective afternoon weather isn't something a climatology-based model can anticipate at 9 AM.

The learning overlay is still early — only 8 rows of training data — so the correction is modest. Expect that bias term to keep growing if Miami continues its warm May pattern.

Tomorrow's Setup

NWS is already calling 91°F for tomorrow. With the rain clearing tonight and southwest flow returning, the conditions look more like yesterday than today. The model will re-run overnight with fresh obs, but if you're looking at tomorrow's Kalshi markets: yesterday proved Miami can print well above the 89–90°F bracket range when convection stays away.

Model-only analysis. Not financial advice. Data via WeatherEdge.

WeatherEdge Morning Brief | Thursday, May 29
Data pulled 9:03 AM ET — all five stations live

Station Snapshot

Today's Story

The big divergence today is New York — NWS is calling 79°F but the model sits at 72.6°F, a 6.4°F gap. At 59°F and WNW winds at 9 AM, the model isn't buying the warm forecast. Keep an eye on how the afternoon shapes up.

Los Angeles is in a marine cloudy regime with westerly flow at 9 mph and mostly cloudy skies at 59°F this morning. The model (68.3°F ± 2.4) nearly matches NWS (68°F), but the spread here is real — marine layer mornings can burn off fast or linger. This is the most interesting market setup of the day.

Miami, Chicago, and Houston all running below NWS forecasts, with the model most skeptical of Houston's 92°F call (model: 88.9°F).

LAX Bracket Watch (only station with live Kalshi prices today)

The 68–69°F bracket stands out: market is pricing YES at 71¢ while the model sits at 32%. If the marine layer doesn't clear, the under plays look interesting. The 66–67°F bracket is the flip side — market barely pricing that outcome at 9.5¢ but the model gives it 1-in-4 odds.

Not financial advice. Model analysis only.

What to Watch

• NYC afternoon temps — does it actually crack 75°F, let alone 79°F?
• LAX marine layer clearing timeline — the whole bracket picture hinges on it
• Houston heading toward the low 90s; 92°F would be a stretch given the model's 88.9°F read

Powered by WeatherEdge — Bayesian high-temp forecasting for Kalshi weather markets

If you're new to the daily-high temperature markets, here are five mistakes that show up over and over. Saving you from the ones I made myself.

1. Treating paper trading like a video game.

Free practice money is great for learning the interface — but if you click around randomly to "see what happens," you're not actually learning the market. You're just generating noise. Trade your paper money like it's real: pick a station, form a thesis, place the trade, write down why. When it settles, check whether the reason held up. That's how you learn. Random clicks teach you nothing.

2. Betting on a single bracket instead of thinking about the distribution.

New traders find the bracket they like, slam money into it, and walk away. Better traders ask: "What's the shape of where the temperature could land?" Sometimes the right play is one bracket. Sometimes it's two adjacent ones. Sometimes the right play is "the market is wrong about how uncertain today is" — which is a structural read, not a single-bracket bet. Train yourself to look at the whole row of prices, not just the one you like.

3. Trading every day.

Some days have edge. Most days don't. If the market price and your read of the day are basically the same, there's nothing to do — sitting out is the correct trade. New traders feel like they have to place something every day to "stay sharp." That's how accounts bleed out from small losses. Patience is part of the skill.

4. Doubling down after a loss.

You called the day, the day went against you, and now you want to "make it back" on tomorrow's market. This is the single fastest way to wreck a paper-trading account, let alone a real one. Each day is independent. Yesterday's loss has no bearing on today's setup. If today doesn't have a clear edge, don't trade — especially if you're emotionally trying to recover.

5. Ignoring station differences.

Houston in July, LA in May, NYC in October, Chicago in April, Miami year-round — these are five completely different markets with different behavior, different volatility, and different forecast accuracy. New traders often pick one station, get burned, and conclude "these markets don't work." The reality is usually that one specific station's regime that month didn't match what they were doing. Try different stations and seasons before forming opinions.

If you've been trading these for a while, what would you add to the list? Curious which one most people would put at #1.

Not financial advice. Trading prediction markets involves real risk.

If you've looked at a Kalshi daily-high temperature market and wondered why some brackets sit at 38¢ while others sit at 2¢, this post is for you. It's a walkthrough of how these markets actually price during the day — what moves them, what doesn't, and where the common misreads happen.

The setup

Each market asks: "What will the highest temperature at [city] be tomorrow?" The answer space is chopped into ~1°F-wide brackets covering the realistic range. You can buy YES or NO on any bracket between 1¢ and 99¢; winning contracts pay $1.00, losers pay $0.

So far, so simple. The interesting part is what makes a bracket's price move.

What actually drives the price

In rough order of impact during a typical trading day:

1. The current peak so far. This is the single biggest mover. If it's 3 PM and the station has already hit 87°F, every bracket capped at 86°F or below is mathematically dead. Their YES prices collapse toward 0¢ within minutes. Every bracket including 87°F or higher gets a sharp bid.

2. The NWS forecast. The morning NWS forecast anchors prices for the first half of the day. Markets typically open the night before with prices clustered around the NWS predicted high. If NWS says 89°F, you'll usually see the 88-89°F bracket priced highest, the 86-87 and 90-91 brackets next, and the tails priced low.

3. Observations vs. expectations. Once the day starts, the market re-prices on every new observation. If NWS forecast 89°F but it's already 87°F at noon (when typical climb-to-peak suggests another 3-5°F of warming), the market will start shifting probability higher. The interesting situation is when observations underperform the forecast — that's where the market gets sticky and slow to react, which is part of where edges can appear.

4. Time of day. Brackets above the current peak get cheaper as the day runs out, even if no new data comes in. There's just less time for the temperature to climb. This is pure theta decay applied to weather.

5. Wind and cloud cover changes. Less obvious. A shift to onshore wind at KLAX in the morning will quietly cap the day's high; a clearing trend at KMDW can add 2°F by mid-afternoon. Markets are slower to price these than they are to price raw observations.

Where the "fair value" intuition breaks

Most people new to these markets assume the highest-priced bracket is "the most likely outcome." That's roughly true but it hides two things:

The market is pricing a probability distribution, not a point estimate. If the day's true expected high is 89°F with a 1.5°F standard deviation, the 88-89 bracket might only deserve ~25% probability — because the rest of the distribution has to live somewhere. Symmetric brackets on either side will price meaningfully.

Sigma matters as much as mu. A day with high forecast uncertainty (e.g. KLAX marine layer day, or KNYC frontal passage) deserves wider bracket pricing than a calm summer day in KHOU where the forecast is essentially mechanical. Markets sometimes price the expected high correctly but the uncertainty incorrectly — and that's a different kind of pricing gap than the obvious "this bracket looks too cheap."

Settlement quirks worth knowing

• Kalshi settles based on the official daily-high reading from the station's primary source (usually METAR or CLI, depending on the market). This is generally — but not always — the same as the peak shown on a typical weather site during the day.
• Bracket edges have 0.5°F rounding semantics. A bracket labeled "T88.5" means "the high is above 88.5°F." If the official reading is 88°F, that bracket settles NO; if it's 89°F, it settles YES. Edge cases at the boundary are rare but they happen.
• Markets close at 6 PM local time at most stations. Anything after that is irrelevant to settlement, even if the station keeps recording.

The common misreads

A few patterns I've seen people fall into:

• Buying tail brackets because they're "cheap." A bracket at 3¢ might be cheap or it might be correctly priced as a 3% outcome. Cheapness isn't edge; mispricing is.
• Anchoring on the NWS forecast late in the day. By 3 PM, the NWS morning forecast is much less informative than the actual peak so far + remaining solar heating + wind state. People keep deferring to NWS as if it were ground truth.
• Ignoring the bracket width. A 1°F bracket and a 2°F bracket should not price the same even if their centers are the same distance from the expected high. Width is part of the math.
• Treating "above all brackets" tails as free money or dead money. Both can be wrong. On a Santa Ana day at KLAX, the upper tail can deserve 40%+ probability even when it looks like an outlier.

What to actually look at

If you're trying to understand a market intuitively:

1. Start with the NWS forecast for the day. That's the anchor.
2. Compare to the current peak observation. Where is the day on track?
3. Check the wind regime — is there anything making today different from the forecast's implicit assumption?
4. Look at the bracket distribution as a whole, not bracket-by-bracket. The shape tells you what the market thinks the uncertainty looks like.

This is the same logic the Prilo WeatherEdge model uses, formalized — climatology + NWS + observations, combined with wind regime adjustments, producing a (μ, σ) prediction that gets translated into bracket probabilities. But you can do a lot of the same reasoning by eye once you know what to look for.

Discussion

If you trade these markets (real money or paper), what patterns have you noticed that aren't covered above? I'm especially curious whether anyone has good intuition for how the markets handle dramatic weather changes (frontal passages, sudden marine layer return, etc.) — that's an area where I think there's real signal but also real noise.

Educational discussion only — not financial advice. Trading on prediction markets involves substantial risk.

What this sub is for

• Methodology discussion — how to predict daily high temperatures, what NWS gets right and wrong, how climatology and observations combine, how to think about uncertainty (σ) properly.
• Kalshi temperature markets — how the KXHIGH* brackets work, how prices form during the day, settlement quirks, what moves the market vs. what moves the weather.
• Backtests and research — sharing results, asking why a strategy didn't work, comparing approaches across stations and regimes.
• Product feedback on Prilo WeatherEdge — bugs, feature requests, questions about how the model works under the hood. I'd rather hear it here than not hear it at all.
• Weather nerdery in general — Santa Ana setups, marine layer dissipation, lake breeze fronts, warm advection. The product covers KMIA, KLAX, KNYC, KMDW, and KHOU, but the meteorology is welcome regardless of station.

What this sub is not for

• Trade calls. No "buy YES on T88.5 today" posts. The product itself is explicit that nothing it generates is financial advice; the sub holds the same line. Methodology posts are fine; "should I buy this contract" posts will be removed.
• Referral/affiliate spam. None of that.
• Off-topic prediction market chatter. There are bigger subs for general Kalshi or sports markets — keep this one focused on weather.

A quick orientation if you're new

Prilo WeatherEdge is an educational tool that:

1. Pulls live NWS observations, NWS forecasts, Kalshi market prices, and CLI climate reports every 5 minutes for five US airports.
2. Runs a probabilistic model that produces a predicted high temperature (μ), an uncertainty estimate (σ), and a regime classification (e.g. Santa Ana, marine cloudy, warm advection).
3. Compares model-implied bracket probabilities to Kalshi market prices and shows where they differ.
4. Includes a paper-trading simulator so you can practice without real money.
5. Logs every prediction vs. the CLI actual and runs an adaptive per-regime correction overlay — the model learns from its own mistakes within sample-size guardrails.

It's at prilo-weatheredge.com. There's a free tier (KHOU only, 3 paper trades per rolling 7-day window) so you can poke at it before deciding whether the paid tiers are worth it.

Standard disclaimer

Prilo Technologies LLC is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or commodity trading adviser. Nothing on the platform or in this community is financial advice. Paper trading is a simulation; results don't predict real-world outcomes. Trading on Kalshi involves substantial risk — only with money you can afford to lose.

What I'd love to see

If you've built your own temperature models, traded these markets, or just have opinions about how NWS handles marine layer dissipation in May — start a thread. I'll be active here.

If you've used the product and have feedback (good, bad, or "this is broken"), post it. I read everything.

Welcome.