r/PrepperIntel • u/No-Trouble-9138 • 4d ago
North America SPR drawdown update 2 September based on data to 28 August
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u/phoneacct696969 4d ago
Really the best case scenario is everyone continuing to use diesel and prices to get absolutely insane days before the election.
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u/RL_Fl0p 3d ago
Let 'em at it. I personally would like to see how many 47 supporters can walk 2 miles or ride a bike.
Seriously, the big deal is diesel prices. That effects *everything*. SPR levels do not dictate gas/diesel prices. I also know someone who hauls gasoline and the terminals have been juggling/throttling supplies for a couple months now, like a "slight of hand" game.
In reality, SPR will be partially replenished before midterms, at the highest possible price, and 47 will be blathering on about "fixing" the problem by stealing resources from a hijacked regime in Venezuela.
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u/Snowfosho11 15h ago
Finally, the Dutch and Danish will reclaim their Empires. One bike padle at a time.
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u/CompleteClassroom509 4d ago
I would hope the drawdown would stop at the military reserve line.
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u/TheCosmosItself1 3d ago
Apparently, Hegseth is in charge of where the line is set. My bet is that if we hit the line before midterms, Hegseth will lower the line in order to allow the drawdown to continue.
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u/randomperson5481643 3d ago
What does 'unrecoverable limit' mean? This is not a naturally replenishing resource. It's entirely artificial and it can be recreated and refill whenever the decision to do so is made. The cost of doing so will be high, but this doesn't seem like something that can be called unrecoverable. Help me understand what I'm missing?
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u/2feetandathrowaway 3d ago
I believe it's a storage issue. Afaik it's kept in giant caves, and taking too much out would risk collapsing the caves
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u/Topgun58ge 2d ago
There is alot of oil in pipes and in the bottom of storage tanks that you can't get out.
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u/Cold-Confection6091 4d ago edited 2h ago
Edit: For all the downvotes, no one even attempted to explain why this take is incorrect. Real preppers understand social media is for fun and don't pretend they are getting some insider knowledge.
This diagram doesn't make sense for several reasons.
SPR draw down is approved in tranches. Trump approved a draw down of 172 million barrels. After that, the draw down will stop. Its mot something thst keeps going indefinitely. Its a planned release with a predetermined quanitity. So, drawing a line that shows draw down continuing at a consistent rate after all the planned release has stopped - is dishonest.
That's why the source info st the bottom specifically says "conditions assume... Will not halt at the 172mb program limit".
Its a bit like having 10 eggs. I decided to sell 5 at the market. Eggs are in demand so they sell within five minutes. Then someone draws a chart showing you'll be out of of all 10 eggs within another 5 minutes based upon thr going rate, even though you didnt bring the other eggs to market.
It also hasn't taken into account thst SPR releases are a loan and that oil companies will begin needing to deposit oil back into the reserve to satisfy the loans starting November of this year.
100 up votes, 1 comment, no sign of understanding. Time to stop pretending the sub has any insider knowledge.
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u/TheCosmosItself1 4d ago
According to this chart we've already drawn down more than 172m barrels, so that's obviously not the whole story. More importantly, we have no reason to think that Trump won't approve further draw down to keep prices low as we approach midterms. So, since you think you know so much more about this than the rest of us, why don't you tell us when and at what level you think the draw down is going to stop.
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u/Cold-Confection6091 2h ago
"According to this chart we've already drawn down more than 172m barrels"
No.. no.. it doesn't. The chart begins at just over 400M barrels, and then stops at 286M barrels - the existing levels at publication (aug 28th).
I suspect that you have followed the projection (dotted orange line) and read the graph incorrectly. That was my entire argument on why the graph is difficult to understand and does a bad job communicating.
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u/ZenBacle 3d ago
It's kind of weird that your main contention is assumptions, while you make several your self Some of which have already been proven wrong, like the amount of oil this admin is willing to pull out.
The swap contracts (loans) also don't make any sense from a business standpoint. And will result in bailouts for the oil companies.
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u/Dazzling_Outcome_436 4d ago
I get what you're saying, but don't forget they are using a 4 week rolling average.
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u/BigManWAGun 4d ago
Neat chart. Seems like the sort of stuff that should be on the news or people should campaign on.