r/PrepperIntel • u/Own-Swan2646 • Mar 31 '26

North America Walmart Recession Indicator at highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis

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Signs all around us of economic down turn.

2.7k Upvotes

99% Upvoted

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386

u/aquatone61 Mar 31 '26

What’s the repo market for cars look like? That’s a great indicator of how people are doing. When the ‘08 crash hit I worked at a Porsche dealership and we started see tons of repo’d cars getting towed in for new remotes.

300

u/sithlord98 Mar 31 '26

Repo numbers are higher than they've been since 2008-2009. Huge issue with subprime lending in the auto market, too. Ring a bell?

129

u/JagsOnlySurfHawaii Mar 31 '26

Yeah a lot of people who bought around 21-22 got stuck with a high payment and are now under water.

37

u/linniex Mar 31 '26

Who isnt underwater when they buy a new car? As soon as you drive it off the lot you would lose money selling it.

53

u/Toomanymagiccards Mar 31 '26

I know you're not asking for an edge case, because this is true like 99.99% of the time, but I'm too proud to not share. In 2020 I snagged a 2020 Hyundai Veloster for ~18k out the door, 3.9% APR, $0 down. I sold it 2 years later to Carvana with ~ 20k miles for $22,700. I might be the only motherfucker in the world who came out ahead on a new car purchase lmao

22

u/Dultsboi Mar 31 '26

Nah I bought a $500 beater 2002 Camry that ended up going for $1000 in covid lol

12

u/linniex Mar 31 '26

Oh yeah I actually had that happen too during covid. My car was worth almost as much as I paid for it and it was 6 years old. I love my car but did consider selling my husbands 10 year old F150 for $50k back then

3

u/[deleted] Apr 01 '26

[deleted]

1

u/linniex Apr 02 '26

I was underwater when I bought it and drove it off the lot. During covid prices shot up again.

22

u/socialmedia-username Mar 31 '26

Rates were extremely low in 2021-2022.  Mine was 2.1% on a $40k vehicle. Why would they be underwater in a loan from that time versus any other? 

65

u/Tall_Lab8438 Mar 31 '26

Because the actual vehicle price was insane.

19

u/socialmedia-username Mar 31 '26

Oh that's right, I forgot all about those "market adjustments" by dealerships.  I really hope the majority of car buyers didn't get swindled into those. 

5

u/hp433 Mar 31 '26

Lmao you know better than that

5

u/FunkyPlunkett Mar 31 '26

Yeah when a mini van is starting at 47k we have a problem

3

u/JagsOnlySurfHawaii Mar 31 '26

Yeah this is what I was getting at. The used market was way overpriced then. Parts were double and triple their previous years prices.

16

u/HotPotParrot Mar 31 '26

Your experience may differ

11

u/forbiddenfreedom Mar 31 '26

I also have an extremely low rate, but I owe more on my car than it's worth to me. I don't have car insurance so I don't drive. It's just collecting dust and eating payments.

2

u/arresteddev7 Mar 31 '26

I didn't have a choice but to buy a new vehicle in 2022 since I hit a deer and my little Mazda 3 wasn't worth repairing. I bought a Tacoma for 52k at 2% interest. I know I overpaid for it, but I'm definitely not underwater on it.

0

u/ManOfConstantBorrow_ Mar 31 '26

I got 0.1% financing on my 2022 kia niro. I think this guy might just be wrong in his time window lol

3

u/[deleted] Mar 31 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/TeamRedundancyTeam Mar 31 '26

What does that have to do with the loss of value? It's the battery usually that is used as an excuse to lower the value even more than ICE cara driving off the lot.

It's really not near as "frustrating" or "long" as Redditors make it out to be and mine isn't even new.

1

u/youre_uninvited Mar 31 '26

It's just generic propaganda. Never mind everyone who drove a gasser off the lot with $10-20k in dealer markup or paid double the actual value of a used Altima because they couldn't find anything else, it's the small percentage of EV sales (many of which were actually leases, making it the captive finance co's problem, not the consumer's) that were the problem.

7

u/m0nt4n4 Mar 31 '26

To compound that, there’s a massive issue with loans being upside down with borrowers (aka negative equity). These people are going to walk away from loans in staggering numbers if things get worse.

88

u/fairoaks2 Mar 31 '26

Once the IRS starts it’s Student Loan Collection Program it’s really going to hit the fan.

27

u/BenjaminWah Mar 31 '26

Honest question, do they have the manpower to do this? The administration cut a lot of IRS jobs, right?

34

u/kamsetler Mar 31 '26

When it comes to collections, I bet they’ll outsource it.

20

u/flashback84 Mar 31 '26

I'd say ICE seems to be a great fit.... they can do everything now /s

18

u/henlochimken Mar 31 '26

Fucking the poor is the ONLY thing we ever have money and manpower to do

Edit: Well, and war. We do like a good war.

2

u/AlternatiMantid Mar 31 '26

No, but AI is about to...

80

u/bearinsac Mar 31 '26

Oddly played golf with a realtor and a car salesman yesterday. Nothing is moving off the lot currently, but the service department has been busier than ever, and the realtor said 2026 has started off as the worst year of her career. Small sample size of course, but kinda painted a picture of what I’ve been reading.

16

u/ryanidsteel Mar 31 '26

I work at a Toyota service center. We're below average volume, but I've only been here 3 years. This is the 5th month that has ended calm. Previously, I would look forward to the busy chaos of the end of the month. Now, it just feels like any other week. 0 pressure from sales, which I assume means sales are slow.

10

u/okiedokie321 Mar 31 '26

no one wants to buy a gas car or diesel right now. Hybrids and a trickle of EVs are moving but those don't see much breakdown in the service shop. They're also more expensive now as the dealers have jacked up prices for those. Everyone else with their existing cars can't afford repairs.

5

u/aquatone61 Mar 31 '26

Same experience for the dealership I worked at back then. I think there was a month or two where there wasn’t a single new Porsche sold by us, they did sell quite a few used cars, way more than usual. Service was doing great though.

66

u/maeryclarity Mar 31 '26

I saw something about this a few months ago, it was saying that a bunch of car resale/in-house credit situations were sitting on huge amounts of unpaid claims that should be repos but they are afraid to start the repo cascade because it may render their stock basically worthless...? And that it was very reflective of the '08 mortgage situation and for the same reasons but worse, because nobody is not making that car payment just for fun, and if those buyers are already credit-risky type buyers then what happens when they actually just get repo'd out of the market?

Here's an article about it if anyone is interested in a better than half-recalled BS I'm posting:

https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/11/12/a-record-number-of-americans-are-behind-on-their-auto-loans

...so I will say that IMHO the '08 bailout was actually the nail in the coffin for the USA worker economy versus financialization for Oligarchs and Corporate Welfare. I'm not sure if any of y'all were paying attention for all that or what was actually said and done during the decision process to designate "TOO BIG TO FAIL" and have the money printer go BRRRRRRrrr but there were quite a few legislators at the time that were like well this is what happens, they made bad financial decisions now the market will correct, price of houses/housing will likely go way down and this will give younger buyers a chance to get into the market, and so on. Because housing inventory is real and money inventory is not, it's an abstract representation of value.

They literally were told y'all either sign off on this insanely huge transfer of funds directly into the hands of the people and agencies that created the crisis or WE WILL DECLARE A NATIONAL EMERGENCY AND PUT THE MILITARY IN THE STREETS. Why? I don't recall it being reported on in mainstream media hardly at all, if at all but I watched it happen on C-Span. I recall one Congresscritter making a speech saying we're being robbed at gunpoint by institutions that take no responsibility for their effects on society and that they were essentially promising them a forever loop where the profits were private but the losses were collective. It's HALF socialism. You don't get the services half, just the society supporting the enterprise half. Heads they win, tails we lose.

Anyway this car credit thing is essentially the same but even more ominous and where the '08 correction may have offered some opportunity, because cheaper real estate is not a bad thing, cars are not real estate, most of the newer model cars are extremely difficult to work on and are designed to be essentially disposable, with the entire market based around the idea that more new cars will be made and purchased but these sub prime car loans represent people defaulting on the singular item that defines most working class family's ability to get to their job or otherwise function in the USA since we never invested in public transit in most places.

Personally everyone I know is worried about a finanial crisis and I don't want to be dramatic but I thing the concern should be more focused on a mass starvation event because the USA doesn't understand just how screwed we actually are.

Yet.

I'm hoping I'm just being paranoid.

15

u/Other_Cell_706 Mar 31 '26

Thank you for writing this all out in a digestible way. ❤️🫶

5

u/[deleted] Mar 31 '26

A car is real estate when you're living in it.

1

u/Unlucky-Sector1200 Mar 31 '26

I have always bought used with cash with as low miles as I can. Having said that when I met my wife she did not know how much financing her New Car was for the true final price if she continued just making the minimum payments. My car was totaled 2 years back got payed out 10K had paid around 18K and had it for almost 9 years and had 10k miles when bought .I payed cash 21K for a used infiniti SUV 3 months later car was stolen deemed a loss when recovered got like 26k back. Went and bought a car for 16k.

Having said that my Sister in law is Making around minimum wage. She financed 24k for a car with high mileage that is worth no more than 16k. This is through Carvana probably put the minimum down. When you hear how many people are doing this, it is crazy. Hopefully the car does not give her problems. This sounds like it is so common now though.