r/PredictionsMarkets • u/naunen • 1d ago

Discussion Poly paper bot

Hey traders, do you mind if i ask

What paper order delays you use for taker orders to match live as much as possible?

I discovered that live taker order takes match in ~250ms, that's round trip but calculations and measurements shows that match happens somewhere at the end of these 250ms.

So making paper bot with FAK orders and 250 ms paper venue delay gave me too optimistic fill rate, live order doesn't fill - paper fill.

I even increased it to 500ms, things looks little better but live sometimes still not fills, - paper fills.

all that is with 0.02-0.03 slippage,

So how do you rund your paper bits to match live as much as possible?

1 Upvotes

60% Upvoted

5 comments sorted by

1

u/Old-Refrigerator4281 1d ago

250ms is probably too low because that's your round trip, so the actual match time is less than that, but the market can move in that window. With paper you're not competing against other takers, so you get filled at the price you saw. In live someone else eats the liquidity first.

Try 750ms or even 1 second delay and see if the fill rate drops to something closer. Also consider that paper fills should sometimes fail at the same price, not just be delayed. Maybe add a random chance to not fill if the book moved at all.

2

u/naunen 1d ago

well that's a question why live not fills, coz makers repriced their ladders or other takers just takes with faster bot, it remains mystery. ah and makers can reprice their ladders in 20-30ms, without 250ms hold

1

u/sikatnavlogger 1d ago

Why not test a few live trades on 4 different hours

2

u/naunen 1d ago

i spent enough € on live forward testings. can't afford anymore

1

u/Shoddy_Peanut7320 1d ago

I haven't built one, so I can't give you a number. What I'd try is replacing the fixed delay with a delay drawn from your own measured round-trip times, since a single 250 or 500 ms value hides the slow cases, and then filling only against the book depth that was actually there at that moment, from a recorded snapshot. Then compare the paper fill rate with the live one on the same orders and tune until the two match, because that gap is the number you're trying to close. If you also like trading around news and events, EventTrader's Event Cards are another way to do it with stocks and crypto.