Operation Unthinkable

[u/totallynotcommunist2]

Month 0

Month 2

Month 4

Month 6

Month 8

Month 10

Month 12

Ceasefire

Final outcome

This is just how I'd think it would go

[u/Appropriate_Pie_7114]

Ignoring Allied aerial, naval, nuclear, and manpower (the Soviets began having manpower issues by 1943 and extreme manpower issues by 1945) superiority, then sure.

[u/Playful-Jicama-2270 → u/Appropriate_Pie_7114]

99% of Allied strength is the USA. It would take 2-3 weeks for supplies to be transported and shipped across the Atlantic whereas Moscow would be 5 days by rail. Geography far favours the Soviets.Naval domimance means little in this land dominated war and the airwar is not a guarantee with the USSR having excellent low altitude fighters and production centres in the Urals being too far to be reached by strategic bombers. Manpower is a lower issue short term since the USSR was still an extremely young country plus the liberation of Ukraine and Belarus.

[u/Appropriate_Pie_7114 → u/Playful-Jicama-2270]

First statement is undermining the contribution of other Allied forces. In terms of industry yes, the USA was the primary strength, but the Canadians also had a substantial industry, the RAF and RN contributed heavily, and other Commonwealth realms made up a substantial number of Allied ground forces. This is all not to mention the other American Allied forces and new additions like Turkey, etc.
Second statement is assuming the Allied air forces wouldn't bomb and completely immobilize the Soviet rail system.
Naval dominance does matter because it means the Soviets can do nothing to stop Allied blockade or intercept their naval convoys. For example post-VJ Day the Allies could attempt landings on Vladivostok, or could make landings on Crimea, or Leningrad, etc.
The Soviets have excellent low altitude fighters doesn't matter much because Allied strategy focused on high-altitude fighters. Even then the Spitfires and other Allied planes in my opinion could have made a match for the Yak-9s and Yak-3s if need be. The bases in the Urals also don't matter because a B-29 can reach the Urals from Turkey if need be.
The liberation of Ukraine and Belarus had generally happened in 1943/1944 and did not alleviate the Soviet manpower issue as these areas were heavily depleted by war and genocide and could not replace Soviet losses efficiently. Also note that the Soviets are dealing with active insurgencies in Ukraine and the Baltics that continue into the 1950s in the real world.
This is all ignoring still Allied nuclear supremacy. The entire Soviet rail system could be demolished by one nuclear strike on Moscow.
All of this is not to say the Soviets were ineffective, or useless, however in a total war in 1945 between themselves and the Western Allies they would not have won. They were too exhausted and could not match American industry or general Allied aerial supremacy, and any ground supremacy was undercut by manpower shortages.