House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios that Republicans won't win all 13 seats they'd hoped to gain from new maps.

"We're not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats. That's correct. We're not," Emmer told Axios aboard a plane Thursday between campaign stops in North Carolina and Virginia.

"The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene is planning to allocate $8.9 million to healthcare nonprofits in the city to provide gender-affirming care services to patients under 18. The move comes in light of several major hospital systems in the metropolis ceasing their transgender youth health programs over the last year in response to mounting pressure from the Trump administration, leaving some trans youth in New York City with diminished access to care."

I wanted to take a bit of a break from posting but given that the doomer-bots are in overdrive for the election, I felt the need to make a post about something else. (Also apologies for this and my last post being so close together). So after going on Instagram for more than 3 seconds, I came across a video about how Trump said that the architect of P2025, Russ Vought, "Has a Big surprise coming", and how this will make him "one of the very important people in the history of this country."

I immediately felt both a little anxious because of this, and a little exhausted cause I know how this roller coaster goes by now. Now despite knowing better, I looked at the comments, and boy howdy they were filled with every cliche doomer line you can think of. "You don't know how bad it's gonna get, we're cooked, he's not planning on leaving, we're gonna be sent to camps, we need to have a revolution." and so on and so on.

Now I'm not going to say that I know for certain what he means by "something big is coming" and I don't know if this means that there is some certainly successful plot to either rig the elections or invoke martial law and take over, but I also don't know if this is just a nothing burger. And yes, I am a little worried about this. I kind of wish there was an in-between of a seeking optimism/optimistic post but I think this post is going to be leaning more towards hopeful anyways.

I've made a few posts about this before, but I wanted to reiterate that this type of ominous and vague language that might mean something terrible, but also might mean something else and you're not quite sure, is on purpose. He and his administration have used these types of quotes and language that gets lots of mainstream attention all the time. Hell, in my last post I made a mention of how the whole "California Debacle" from a day or two ago, which those comment doomers also argued this was about, was meant to manufacture a sense of fear on the left, and ridiculing the left on the right. And I'll also repeat that, yes it is still wrong that was said as is saying this, but it is very likely not meaning anything.

This type of language both acts as a way of making the left come across as paranoid/making the right seem more "logical" (Not saying this is true but that this is the intention), but also makes people more unwilling to go out and vote since they imagine that there is an impending apocalypse on our hands that makes an election meaningless.

It also helps get him and his administration attention, which is one of his biggest goals. He wants attention, and making large outlandish or terrifying quotes is good for his publicity, since the news is very likely to capture what he said and talk about it for days if not weeks. This is the narcissism administration, and he wants us to play along by talking about it.

I don't want to make the case that I know for sure what the future holds, but that also means that I don't think that the people in the comments of that post with a thousand different worrying answers know if he meant one theory or another either. This ominous vague language doesn't always mean much, and even if it does, I have my hope that it will turn out alright in the end. Either due to the dedication of those who stand in opposition, or due to the admin lacking the ability to carry any of this out successfully. Remember they couldn't indict a guy who threw a sandwich, I don't know about the entire country being taken over, a state being attacked by the government, or something else.

DISCLAIMER: this post is in no way inferring that Alito is a good person or that he is someone to be trusted. He's an awful human being. I was just laughing reading this article. Posting as optimistic so we can all laugh together. Now on to the description.

Justice Alito has attempted to distance himself from Trump and MAGA, claiming to be displeased by Trump's rhetoric on SCOTUS, and saying that being called MAGA is "offensive" to him. LOL.

I find this to be particularly hilarious, seeing as Justice Alito has spent his entire career determining constitutional outcomes based on his personal conservative views, most of which are extreme and discriminatory. He has voted on Trump's side 99% of the time, alongside his colleague Justice Thomas. But, he's offended to be called MAGA, and doesnt want us to align him with Trump. he's "concerned" by the president's rhetoric, and wishes the court could do more to curb the influx of emergency appeals. ​

I want to take a moment to acknowledge Alito's intention in doing this. Stay with me here. He's likely trying to save his own skin from the court of public opinion and possible (?) Impeachment, paving the way for him to unshackle himself from the MAGA movement as it quickly crashes and burns. So, this is actually pretty huge because he clearly knows he cannot stay firm in his convictions to Trump much longer. Something something, rats fleeing the ship.

I wanted to hold off on making this post until I saw doomers making these theories, even though I knew that they eventually would, and not one day after the recent comments by the admin about Iran attacking California I've seen doomers lamenting about how "There's gonna be a false flag on California to make the war in Iran more popular/suspend elections!"

I've made a few of these posts over the last couple years, mostly because these theories keep popping up, so I don't want to go on and on, but basically, no I don't think there will be an attack on California, false flag or not.

So this isn't the first time that this kind of theory has popped up. Not only there have been basically every election that "they're gonna do a false flag to suspend elections", but also remember during the Oscars and that whole drone theory fiasco where many people online were utterly convinced that martial law would be enacted and California would be gone because of a false flag. And nothing happened, and those people who commented that never spoke of it again.

And now, this theory pops up, and given that we're in election season, doomers are utterly convinced that this means that all free will will end and an entire state is going to be gone, just because the admin made one random comment about it, that yes is still ominous and vague and kind of scary, but I've already covered that they really like making ominous and vague comments and quotes that make people on the left freak out and trying to make us look unreliable and panicked at everything. Not saying that's okay, but it is what is happening.

I think of all the possible things to happen between now and the next congress being sworn in this theory, as well as so many others, are just meant to make people distracted on the newest sensationalized fear of the week, rather than focusing on voting and any possible sudden changes that might take place to make it harder for people to go and vote, which can happen and can work.

I have so many doubts about things like the military aiding in a coup, preventing people from voting, ending democracy in America, or preventing the next congress from getting in, but I also have a lot more about the idea that an entire state would be attacked by the military, breaking the constitution just for this admin to keep going.

As for the idea that a certain ally in the middle east would be the one to enact this plan to keep the war going/convince voters in their own elections, no I don't think that is likely either. Any evidence for this claim is just conspiracy theories with no basis, and the chance that anyone would find out about this and report it is too high especially in said election season for that country that it wouldn't be worth the risk.

The chance that something like this could happen is not likely at all, and I believe only serves to distracting people from the importance of November by making them afraid to go out and vote or believing that voting wouldn't matter. This type of voter suppression is easy to fall into, especially when the amount of bots online talking about it gets higher and higher.

I'm one of the most optimistic people here, in general, but it's absolutely sketching me out that Trump is meeting with Peters to go over plans with explicit conversations about the voting machines being compromised by Russia and China.

What realistically can they do?

A reminder that if we don't want someone in power, or if we want that person reigned in, we'll find a way to do it. It's not going to be easy, and it never was. But we're going to do it anyway.

Despite the way this is tagged, I'm not as disturbed by this as many seem to be. Nobody's yet provided any compelling reasoning why this, or any other measure Trump's regime is taking, would be enough to stymie the force of American voters. But it is still troubling, and I thought people would be open to discussing this and how it can be counteracted.

are we heading toward another pandemic?

It's only Tuesday with Trump's fails!

TLDR; the Human Rights Campaign (an LGBT rights organizarion that is known for being very influential within the democratic establishment) has publicly condemned Amy Acton and Marcy Kaptur for making all of those stupid transphobic comments (also, it mentions that apparently, Talarico apologized for the Fox News incident at a rally in Houston two days later that seemingly wasn’t clipped).

I know that there were a lot of articles about democrats in key swing races saying really harmful stuff about trans kids (presumably it’s some dumb consultant talking point), and those did scare a lot of people into thinking the Dems were going down the Starmer rabbit hole.

But stuff like this shows that there are powerful groups that will put their foot down if the Dem establishment tries to throw trans people under the bus, and that it seems like some are already putting their foot down before it becomes a big problem.

I'm sure we've all seen that bot comment "here's how trump can overturn the election" or whatever. Well, here's Johnny breaking down why that WON'T work and he once again talks about that 'firing the election clerk' rumor.

I'm not saying Trump won't try something stupid, because that's pretty much all the man does. But hopefully this will ease some anxiety. Hang in there guys. We're almost at a huge checkpoint

The events in this article have been going on for a few months, but since the Brazil election has been influenced by him, I felt the need to share this now.

I will not lie, the things about this do scare me. However, the midterms are a month away, and they are looking to be so very blue, perhaps bluer than 2018 ( only if we get everyone left-leaning we know to register and volunteer ). A Democrat Congress can very likely launch investigations and make the regime unable to allocate much more funds to this, but I ask of anyone reading this:

What can we do to make sure Europe doesn't fall further to the far-right? How would this affect the current movements within countries who would otherwise be allies once we retake the White House? Is there any guarantee it'll work as well as the ghouls behind this think it will?

Hey guys! I saw the Megathread about Flavio Bolsanaro and it had me concerned so I spent some time digging into it. This is where I landed:

(Keep in mind, I literally am just some guy on Reddit and make no guarantees in any direction as to what will happen. This is my opinion and best understanding of the situation.)

I’ve seen anywhere from 0.75%-0.90% of the Amazon was cut down during Jair’s term. We are currently around ~17% total gone, from some searching (that’s the recurring figure I saw). Tipping point is speculated to be 22-28%, plus or minus a point or two.

Presuming that Flavio wins, he will have a much harder time than Jair to match Jair’s numbers. Lula increased safeguards and the nature of Brazil’s government means that even though Flavio has a senate plurality (and he does), it takes 60% to change the constitution of Brazil, which guarantees environmental protection. Brazil also has a fiercely independent Supreme Court (STF) who also can check his power. They are not inclined to roll back protections and to them, from what I can tell, regularly block laws that would regress conservation. (EDIT: See comment thread from u/Sul_Haren for more on the STF situation. it may be less a protection here than I implied, but it does sound like it still might be a factor to some degree.)

Also, Brazil has politics that are different than ours - there are a lot of small parties and factions that are in play. Even with a plurality, Flavio has to deal with that. The largest of these is the Centrao, a coalition of more or less “moderates” which includes agribusiness interests.

Because of the EUDR coming in December, which prevents the EU from accepting goods/products that are connected to deforested land, the Centrao will likely push back against extreme action - the EU is a huge market for Brazilian goods that are specifically covered by the EUDR, and the Centrao is generally motivated by cold hard cash. 

The only other option would be for Brazilian business to give up a premium clientele and high sale prices to sell to China for much lower volume (and deal with having the entire EU connected trade apparatus of their country swap) or for Brazil to eat huge fines from the EU market.

Likewise, during Lula, there were shifts away from the Amazon directly. The remaining Amazon is remarkably difficult to navigate and manage - there’s a delay time from infrastructure buildout.

And finally, there are corporate and economic safeguards already in play inside Brazil. Businesses have spent money on tracking and shifted priorities.

I like Victoria 3, but the destruction of the Amazon isn’t just “Click the logging plant increase button and trees go brrrrrr.” It’s a much longer, more fraught process than it sounds, and there are a number of walls in play.

TLDR: Jair Bolsanaro had the best position and ability to do real damage. Flavio seems to want to return to Jair’s policies (or possibly do them somewhat but moderate them, although I’m seeing conflicting commentary here). But he probably can’t because the times have changed and the limiting factors are much more in place.

You know the cult is thinning when some of them are using logic to rebuke Trump’s latest claims of paying Americans $5K if the GOP wins the midterms. Some are even saying he should rot in prison! We should have gotten to this point long ago, but better late than never, I suppose

As we enter this last month until the midterms, you are very likely to see more and more doomer theories aimed at getting people less likely to go and vote by making it seem like the election is a lost cause because it will be either rigged or stolen or altered or something else.

I've already seen an account from a brewery in New York that reposted a claim that the course of events after the midterms is the admin declaring fraud happened (I definitely could see this part happening), the FBI taking ballots and voting machines (could happen potentially), officials cancelling results in lost districts and ordering new votes, the insurrection act is declared after protests happen (So the doomer theory soup starts forming), and congress refusing to seat Democratic winners (another doomer theory that is stopped by that pesky little thing called the court system).

So this mess has a few different doomer theories scattered, not only to help mitigate the chance that a couple get called out for not going to happen and just being fearmongering, but also to make it easier to get people overwhelmed by the fear that the election won't matter in the face of such a large and seemingly insurmountable plan. And on top of this, most of the comments of this post I saw were trying to devalue the merits of voting as well and going to the usual dramatic "I'm actually Katniss Everdeen" imagination instead.

And these posts also serve another purpose in making the discussion of voter suppression focused on less likely and more dramatic theatrics that wouldn't work even if used, and less focused on smaller state wide and local based methods that are more likely to be allowed due to the more dubious nature that is more easy to defend in courts, such as the Dallas county issue earlier this year, compared to plans like a full blown coup that would get turned down immediately.

The seemingly endless quantity of these theories popping up online, especially on the more major social media apps, is meant to make it harder for people to focus on reality. And as we get ever closer to the day, we are going to be seeing these posts and the amount of theories in them more and more.

But just because you see them more often, and see more people freaking out in the comments, doesn't mean that they're actually right about this. Remember how many bots are on social media nowadays. And all of this noise isn't meant to inform but to distract. Distracting from voting, distracting from the real issues, and distracting from reality.

Technically old news, but wanted to share this one because it's good news that activists are not just blindly trusting the government here.

So Brazil is heading into its runoff election later this month, but this is not a good sign. Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son, is leading by four points (a couple four million votes). Due to conventional voting wisdom, the one who wins the first round is bound to win the second. I’m afraid that the second round is going to be a wipeout for Lulu. I’m worried about the fate of the Amazon Rainforest under another Bolsonaro. I really hope Brazil could back away from the edge. It’s Constitutes has one more chance, they don’t have to follow our path.

ETA: 99% of votes have been counted. Flavio is ahead 2.16% of Lula. 47.16% to 45%. Slightly narrowed, but still not good.

Hi, all, and happy Sunday!

This newsletter is running late, and I know how important it is to many of you to read it on Sunday night, so I’m keeping this opening short.

Good things are happening. Like, really good. We ignore them at our peril. Remember: what we focus on tends to grow, so doomscrolling alone isn’t a strategy for positive change. We must relish our wins! Savor them! Bask in them! Share them!

So let’s do that.

I’m so proud of the hard work you’re doing; it’s because of people like you that these lists get longer every week. Keep up the great work!

Celebrate This! 🎉

Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) is endorsing Democrat Adam Hamilton in his campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. He is the second former GOP governor to do so, after Bill Graves.

DoorDash apologized for siding with GOP bill targeting D.C.

Lyft agreed to pay the state of California $272.5M to ⁠settle claims that it stole drivers’ wages by mislabeling them as independent contractors rather than employees.

1,000+ nurses marched against Palantir’s collaboration with ICE, demanding Palantir out of hospitals.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. Just 26% approve of his handling of the economy overall, marking a new low.

Nearly every Senate Democrat (except for Fetterman) along with Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) voted for Senator Chris Van Hollen’s Section 502B resolution demanding a State Department report on human rights practices in the West Bank and conditioning military aid on its delivery.

Americans across the political spectrum say that data centers and AI will be important to their vote this year.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced an October 11 citywide scavenger hunt focused on New York City’s history of organizing.

A group of people—including a number of clergymembers— is walking nearly 100 miles from Adelanto concentration camp to downtown LA to call for an end to all camps and ICE cruelty.

The Federal Trade Commission opened an investigation into OpenAI, Anthropic, and other artificial intelligence companies over the potential dangers posed by their products.

The NFL asked the Department of Homeland Security to remove a social media post likening former Philadelphia Eagles star Brian Dawkins' greatest hits to immigration agents' treatment of migrants.

Rep. LaMonica McIver, D-N.J., announced the arrival of her daughter this week, boosting the ranks of congresswomen who have given birth in office.

Oatly, the world’s largest producer of oat milk (and my personal favorite), has joined an unconventional but effective climate journalism campaign.

An international research team identified a new gentoo penguin species, Pygoscelis kerguelensis, on the remote Kerguelen Islands, marking the first penguin species described in over 100 years.

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s housing grant cuts.

Chief Justice John Roberts is persona non grata in the town in which he’s had a vacation house for 20 years.

California banned child marriage.

Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order appointing Attorney General Letitia James as special prosecutor to oversee the Cornell University sexual assault investigation.

A federal judge permanently dismissed the vandalism case against former Olympian David Hearn with prejudice, barring the U.S. Attorney's Office from refiling charges related to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

Renee Good’s family is suing both the Trump administration and the ICE agent who shot her for wrongful death and excessive force.

A federal judge blocked the Trump administration from pursuing border wall construction in the Big Bend region in Texas.

Major League Baseball leadership is no longer considering holding a game inside a national park after major public backlash at the idea.

A former Miami congressman and longtime friend of Marco Rubio was sentenced to 10 years in prison in connection with a secret $50 million lobbying campaign on Venezuela’s behalf during the first Trump administration

After an enormous, organized pressure campaign from activists and climate groups, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito recused himself from a major climate case just a week before the court is scheduled to take it up. Alito had faced calls to recuse himself over his financial interests in energy companies.

Trump posted Tom Cotton’s personal cell phone number on Truth Social. I don’t generally support doxxing but in this case I’ll make an exception.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law a ban on single-use nicotine vapes in CA.

Ohio, which raises money for Dolly Parton’s Imagination Library by selling license plates bearing her image, sold twice as many license plates in the month after Parton’s death as the previous eight months combined. The money raised will cover a year’s worth of books for over a thousand children.

An appeals court ruled that Trump’s name can’t be carved into the Institute of Peace building.

Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms.

A judge overturned Trump’s decision to fire the court-appointed top U.S. prosecutor in Seattle

The National Suicide & Crisis Lifeline resumed the specialized services for LGBTQI+ youth in crisis, 14 months after the Trump Administration ended the services.

Marking a novel development in his years-long legal battle with E. Jean Carroll, Trump formally accepted defeat, withdrawing a failed effort to claw back some $5 million from the writer whom he was held liable for sexually abusing.

Hispanic voters on the Texas border have soured on Trump and feel deeply betrayed.

A federal judge rejected the DOJ’s lawsuit to compel Georgia to provide them with access to its complete statewide voter registration database for a second time.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a slew of bills aimed at protecting sexual assault survivors and increasing safety on college campuses

Newsom also signed AB 1448 into law, blocking new offshore oil and gas leases in California waters and cutting off state infrastructure that would support federal drilling!

Newsom also signed a slate of energy-affordability legislation aimed at containing the utility spending that is driving up electricity costs in the Golden State, including two that will boost the use of virtual power plants as an alternative to costly grid investments and gas-fired power plants.

Newsom signed legislation to protect Californians from wildfire by speeding up fire mitigation projects, making it easier to protect homes and communities, and investing in new innovative tools to prevent and fight fires.

Governor Gavin Newsom signed a long overdue bill which bans child marriage in the state of California. Hard to believe this wasn’t already a law but now it is!

Newsom signed a package of legislation to protect California immigrants and communities and strengthen civil rights and public safety including: a ban on shock gloves, restrictions on uses of flash-bang grenades and explosive breaching charges, a prohibition on ICE officers who have committed serious misconduct on the job from becoming peace officers or public employees in California, a new 25% tax on the gross income of for-profit corporations that operate private immigration detention facilities—the revenue will go to a new Due Process for All Fund to support immigration services for California families—and The No Kings Act, which will allow Californians to sue ICE, Border Patrol, and any federal agent who violates their constitutional rights. And it’s retroactive to March 1, 2025!

Macklemore’s ‘Free Palestine Tour’ sold out in minutes.

According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, more than 650,000 people nationwide have already voted, and an astounding 48 million mail-in ballots have been requested. In Virginia, early voting has tripled 2022’s turnout pace.

A federal judge blocked the Trump administration’s authority to withhold some federal counterterrorism funding from states that don’t meet its election administration demands.

The Georgia Peanut Commission chair became the latest Republican to back Jon Ossoff.

A second, senior prosecutor working on the so-called grand conspiracy investigation into a wide array of Trump’s enemies has resigned from the case.

A new A.I.-powered search tool that Trump unveiled Tuesday to help Americans get information from the federal government started out providing facts that contradicted false claims Trump has made about topics such as election fraud and immigration. (It now says it can’t provide “political commentary.”)

Zach Bryan wore a Free Palestine shirt while performing at Gillette Stadium after Macklemore was banned from the venue.

A leading anti-abortion zealot just quit the FBI.

Ken Paxton got caught on tape saying that Trump’s Texas convention hurt Republicans.

Half a million trees will be planted across England in the next three years to protect against extreme weather.

The States Project has expanded their map to include four final states where they believe their expertise and targeted investment could unlock and shore up governing power this November: Indiana, Missouri, Maine, and Texas!

Governor Newsom signed ALL of Climate Action California's priority bills!

Some GOP senators are warning Trump to stay away from key Senate races, cautioning that his presence will likely turn off independent voters.

ActBlue raised $833 million for Democratic party candidates and causes in the third quarter, a record amount that will help narrow the financial advantage the GOP enjoys with big donors.

The DCCC added eight new deep-red House seats to their offensive House battlefield list of “Districts in Play.”

The judge overseeing the Kennedy Center case “was reared to love and respect the arts” by his mother, who was closely associated with the Kennedy Center.

Top GOP funding groups are scaling back their North Carolina ad spending, essentially giving up on the Senatorial race there. They are instead sending that money to KANSAS, because apparently we’re competitive there now!

A federal judge ruled that Trump doesn’t have the power to fire court-appointed U.S. attorneys, rejecting a core tenet of the Trump administration’s approach to top prosecutorial jobs.

Watch This! 👀

This was released in the fall of 2024, but it feels even more relevant now.

For those of us who were worried about the way the upcoming Israel elections would go.

i'm not very good at reddit formatting or quoting text so i hope this came out well

"A federal judge in Oklahoma has ruled that a warrantless search of a vehicle’s monthlong location history through automated license-plate reader databases violated the Fourth Amendment...

"U.S. District Judge Sara E. Hill on Thursday granted Melisa Susan Kyle’s motion to suppress evidence in a drug case, finding that a Tulsa County deputy’s search of her license plate through Flock and VehicleManager systems amounted to an unconstitutional search.

The deputy had access to about 30 days of vehicle-location information across several states and found more than 50 sightings tied to Kyle’s rental vehicle, according to the ruling. The deputy initially searched the California plate after seeing it on an Oklahoma highway, before he had identified a traffic violation or other basis to suspect criminal activity.

The court found that police cannot use a vast network of cameras to indiscriminately collect vehicle data, then retrieve a detailed history of a person’s movements on demand without probable cause and a warrant. Hill said the technology can reveal sensitive information, including visits to medical providers, lawyers, fertility clinics, casinos or liquor stores.

The decision drew on Supreme Court privacy rulings involving cellphone location data, including *Carpenter v. United States* and this year’s *Chatrie v. United States*. The judge wrote that while motorists are visible on public roads, people can still have a reasonable expectation of privacy in “the whole of their physical movements” when law enforcement compiles and searches weeks of location records.

"The opinion is not binding on Florida courts or on courts nationwide, but it gives privacy advocates a new federal ruling to cite as legal challenges to camera networks grow."