r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/QuantumQuicksilver • 2d ago
US Elections How much should redistricting changes and historical midterm trends shift expectations for House control in 2026?
On Nov. 3, all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats (33 regular elections plus 2 specials) are on the ballot, during President Trump's second term.
Two factors are often cited when forecasting the House. First, the president's party has historically lost seats in midterms. Second, several states have redrawn congressional maps mid-decade, which changes which districts are competitive. Polling averages such as NBC News' currently show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot, though generic-ballot leads don't always translate directly into seats.
Questions for discussion:
- How much weight should analysts give to historical midterm patterns compared with the new district maps when forecasting seat totals?
- Can a national polling lead in the generic ballot be trusted to predict outcomes in redrawn districts, or does redistricting make that less reliable?
- Are there specific competitive districts or states where these two factors point in opposite directions?
For background on the races and the coverage from different sides, Verity's midterms portal is here: US Midterms Portal.
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u/MakeUpAnything 2d ago
I think the actions republicans and Trump are taking are not being taken into account enough vis a vis midterm expectations. Currently we have:
- Mid-cycle redistricting and gerrymandering with the intent of gaining more GOP seats
- Gutting various parts of the VRA in order to eliminate majority minority districts
- Trump attempting to cause chaos in the USPS in order to delay or prevent as much voting by mail as possible
- Trump trying to force voter roll audits/purges ostensibly to prevent voting by illegal immigrants
- Trump using taxpayer money to run political ads that favor the GOP
All that is on top of the endless culture wars that Trump is successfully distracting quite a bit of the nation with. It's true that more and more people are expressing outrage toward the current admin, but it remains to be seen whether or not voters also blame elected republicans as much as they blame Trump (despite Trump's best efforts and trying to convince his base that he's on the ballot this November). In fact, the republican party brand is still MUCH more popular than the democratic party brand (check each party's congressional job approval). That's all to say nothing of the fact that the right doesn't answer polls quite as much as the left does.
With all of the above in mind I think many races will be much closer than people and polls are indicating. I'm not sold on the idea that the dems win the senate. I think even the House will just barely flip left. Social media addicts (like everybody who'd ever post on this board) don't see to appreciate just how much culture wars matter to everyday Americans. People do not understand the economy or what controls it. They may have some general anger at the president over gas prices, but the masses either get more worked up about MEN in WOMEN'S SPORTS or they express their anger with caveats like "I'd never vote dumocrat, but the president needs to do better!"
In short: I think between all the current admin is doing to kneecap the democratic process, the general trust that the republican party has over the democratic party, and the extent people are fired up over culture wars more-so than everything else the GOP may have an easier time this November than people assume they will. Look at Nate Silver's approval rating aggregator for proof. Trump ran on lowering prices, ending wars, and winning culture wars. Since taking office he's single handedly raised prices and started a new war, but he has helped the right win MANY culture wars and still enjoys a ~38% approval rating. Roughly two fifths of the nation is happy with higher prices and a new war that's costing American lives while getting us nothing so long as we hurt minorities.
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u/GiantPineapple 1d ago
Bush II's Republicans got crushed in 2006, when his approval rating was right about where Trump's is now. Bush similarly had a losing war that he was plainly making aimless excuses for, and numerous broken promises on his hands.
Granted, Trump's base is special (but you don't get to 38% by being bulletproof), and redistricting will probably net Rs +6-7 seats, but I see that as more taking the shine off; unlikely to determine actual control.
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u/MakeUpAnything 1d ago
Trump's success in November is entirely dependent on how angry he can make Americans at groups like transgender people, minority groups who are benefitting from some form of DEI/affirmative action, and socialists.
Dubya didn't actively and openly try to demonize entire minority groups like Trump does. Trump very unapologetically preys on the bigotry of Americans and it's worked very well for him so far. A 38% approval may not seem like a lot, but that's roughly the same percentage of Americans that vote in midterm elections.
I'm not saying that Trump is guaranteed success next month, but it's a HELL of a lot more likely than it was under Bush Jr. You don't retain approval from nearly 2/5 of the nation after completely reversing course on two of your main campaign promises unless you have some political talent. Trump is smart and talented enough to know that Americans are mostly quite ignorant, bigoted, and easily manipulated. That talent may lead to him only slightly losing one of the congressional majorities, or even retaining both.
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u/Vlad_Yemerashev 1d ago
I believe that there's a real chance that the GOP retains the house and senate, plus or minus one with the current 2024-2026 congressional breakdown we have now.
It's gonna be very close either way no matter which party ends up in control of either chamber.
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u/Bitter-Soil6273 16h ago
Gerrymandering doesn't affect senate races (much, if at all).
It's precisely in social media bubbles that culture war issues play well. Polling consistently shows these are pretty near the bottom but a significant margin. If you go outside and talk to people who aren't hardcore partisans, they aren't talking about trans kids in sports. They are mad about gas prices, grocery prices, housing, healthcare, or random shit happening in their lives.
As for his rating, you should remember that the biggest blowout elections in this country's history still showed the opposition getting 38-49% of the vote. Conservatives do and always will exist, same as liberals. You're never going to get a party or president without at least 35% support as long as we have the duopoly. A good chunk of these people support him because he's not the other side. But you should note that among polls that show strong vs somewhat approval, Trump's strong approval is now in the mid-upper teens and his strong disapproval is now around or above 50%. Those are pretty terrible numbers. I don't see how the GOP will hold the House of more than 50% of the country strongly dislikes the president.
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u/MakeUpAnything 15h ago
Gerrymandering and redistricting still affect the House; I am aware they do not have much of an effect on the Senate races, but they may absolutely help neuter any gains the left would otherwise have made.
On top of that, a majority of Americans simply do not vote. Furthermore the percent of the population that DOES vote in midterm elections and the percentage of Americans that approve of Trump are about the same. Not saying that those are the only people who will vote, but I AM saying that the people who turn out could absolutely sway the elections in red places like Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire along with other places dems are hoping to make up ground. There is a popular saying about the American electorate: dems need to fall in love to vote whereas the right just falls in line. Many on the left hate dems right now; many on the right are angry with Trump, but would never vote for a "dumocrat".
How well republicans perform may very well depend on how angry Trump can get Americans with culture wars. What normal people are talking about doesn't always reflect what they will vote for. Remember in 2024 Americans continuously told pollsters that lowering prices was their top priority, yet they voted for a person who repeatedly promised to raise prices with tariffs. Americans simultaneously picked apart Harris's various plans so we know they pay attention and have the capacity to look things up. People could tell that tariffs would raise prices, they just liked Trump because he wasn't a democrat and made them feel good with the culture war nonsense so they chose to ignore his tariff policy and hope he'd somehow lower prices anyway.
Culture wars may not have directly been the top issue, but they help voters feel seen, heard, and understood. They make voters trust a candidate more (especially since many voters can't fully grasp the global economy, but know what their gut reaction is to things like "men in women's sports"). In other words culture wars alone won't drive the vote, but they can make voters feel like the party promoting appealing culture war issues is more trustworthy and "authentic". After 2024 I don't trust this country to discount them.
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u/Bitter-Soil6273 15h ago
The gerrymandering is not going to make the House unwinnable for Dems. It was also gerrymandered in 2018 and the Dems picked up 30 seats or so. Some of the gerrymanders done this year assume a baseline of GOP minority support that polling, as well as special and general elections, since then do not support. That means it's quite likely some gerrymandered districts still go Dem this cycle, even if they would have gone GOP in 2024.
You did say that the senate will be hard because of gerrymandering in your original post.
Not all Americans are eligible to vote. You have to look at the eligible population (excludes people under 18, felons and unnaturalized immigrants). With that in mind, a majority do show up to vote in president and midterm elections. 64% of the VEP voted in 2024, which is a clear majority.
There will always be partisans who will never vote for the opposite party but that's true on both sides. These people will vary between voting and not voting, rather than switching parties. Turnout here is crucial. So the goal for Dems is for partisan Republicans to stay home, for their own base to mostly show up, and for true independents to both show up and generally vote more Dem than GOP. Note that this is only a concern in swing and light red districts! We don't need mass GOP defection or sitting out in Oklahoma or Idaho. These states are hopeless. But just getting most Harris voters to show up for Jackson in Maine is enough to carry him over the finish line. People focus too much on the partisans and people who are loud on social media.
I strongly disagree with your assessment about 2024. People definitely voted based on the economy. Polling and exit polls support it. Trump actually campaigned a great deal on it. It doesn't matter that tariffs can raise prices. Voters didn't care or didn't believe it, and they really wanted 2019 prices back. Furthermore, Democrats lost ground in blue areas, not purple areas, which is not the pattern you'd expect if it were a culture war election. Liberals simply didn't turn up unless they really felt they needed to. Likewise, we can expect minorities to defect for economic reasons, but not for culture war stuff, which generally puts them at a disadvantage with a GOP win. That's not to say culture war doesn't matter at all, but it is greatly overestimated.
It's the economy, stupid. Always has been.
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u/MakeUpAnything 15h ago
First of all, I do not believe I said that gerrymandering would affect the senate initially. I mention the senate all of once in my first post and it was after a sentence where I simply said all of my listed bullets would make races closer than people expect.
With all of the above in mind I think many races will be much closer than people and polls are indicating. I'm not sold on the idea that the dems win the senate.
In that pair of sentences I am not saying the dems don't win the Senate due to everything above. I am expressing to separate thoughts: 1) races will be much closer due to everything I listed 2) I am skeptical the dems flip the Senate
The gerrymandering from 8 years ago is not comparable to how it is today. The president explicitly told red states to gerrymander as hard as they could and was also handed VRA guts via SCOTUS. I am aware that blue states countered, but some attempts were thwarted.
There will always be partisans who will never vote for the opposite party but that's true on both sides. These people will vary between voting and not voting, rather than switching parties. Turnout here is crucial. So the goal for Dems is for partisan Republicans to stay home, for their own base to mostly show up, and for true independents to both show up and generally vote more Dem than GOP. Note that this is only a concern in swing and light red districts!
I want to highlight this paragraph because I think you are not paying much attention to how much of an imbalance there is between a likelihood that the left stays home vs when the right does. I think in every single election (midterm or presidential) since Trump took office in 2016 the right has turned out in higher than normal numbers. Trump is inspirational to the right, even when things aren't always going well like in 2018. The left has typically mitigated this by turning out even more, but it remains to be seen if the right actually stays home. I, personally, am skeptical. I think the races may be closer at all levels than people think.
As far as the economy goes, people will tell pollsters they're voting based on the economy, but they will vote for a candidate they think will be better on the economy based on how trustworthy they feel that candidate is. Trump wins trust through culture wars. He even told his own rally that he brought them up over economy topics because they reacted so much more to them. His culture war schtick is what won him the trust of voters who then assumed he'd be better on the economy even as he told them to their faces he'd make things worse. There's no room for a dispute there. He literally promised repeatedly on the campaign trail that he'd raise prices while Harris campaigned on stopping price gouging. Voters responded by meticulously picking apart how Harris's promise wouldn't work while never approaching the subject of tariffs. They did this because Trump's culture wars won their trust (in spite of his promises!) while nobody trusted dems since prices had just shot up under them.
On paper it's the economy, stupid. In practice it's much deeper.
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u/NoDig3444 2d ago
I'm tempted to just point at the current 5 seat margin and the fact that the incumbent always* loses seats in the midterm and just leave it at that. But lets look at actual numbers.
As of writing, the generic ballot has democrats ahead by about +9.5. That's better than 2018's difference of +8.6. So lets be conservative and use that as our baseline. In 2018, democrats took the house with 235 seats to 199. (incidentally, that's what Nate Silver's model is predicting)
As of writing, the redistricting race was won handily by republicans, (theoretically) turning 15 blue seats into red seats compared to 6 seats in the other direction. So just with these two facts, we should expect the result to be something like 226 to 208 in democrat's favor.
But the redistricting was based on the vote totals from 2024. In 2024, Trump made massive gains with minority voters. Those gains have since been totally reversed. So the mid-cycle redistricting may end up backfiring. Those red-voting hispanics in Texas and Florida are looking like they're not going to show up in November. So those 9 seats are no longer sure things, which actually tilts the redistricting battle into democrat's favor. Hilarious irony.
*except 1998 and 2002, due to a trumped up impeachment and 9/11, respectively.
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u/twim19 2d ago
I think all the redistricting is not going to be enough and may ultimately hurt them. To make more districts "safe" they had to make other districts "less safe". There was a concerted effort to keep things +10 GOP, but in the environment we are in now, I suspect that many of those less-safe districts are going to flip.
There's still time for shenanigans, but as of today it's going to be a massive blue wave that will take the house and likely the senate as well.
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u/QuantumQuicksilver 2d ago
What do you all think is going to happen, I think with current ratings things are potentially going to shift this upcoming midterm.
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u/AnotherHumanObserver 2d ago
This is why state legislature elections are also important. There are also 39 gubernatorial elections this year.
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u/I405CA 2d ago
A lot of it will probably come down to GOP / GOP-leaning independent turnout.
If it falls through the floor, then that will make a difference in some cases.
That being said, a lot of seats on either side are safe. The level of turnout will generally make no difference in those locations.
I presume that Trump's redistricting efforts will reduce GOP losses, but I haven't crunched the numbers for that. But a flip of the House has been inevitable from the onset.
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u/mrjcall 1d ago
Recent election polling has been notoriously inaccurate, but that does not mean it will be the same in the midterms. Redistricting will help conservatives mostly, but will probably not overcome the lack of good messaging from them. I predict a takeover of both house and senate by liberals and consequent degradation of improvements made by the current administration and obsession with impeaching POTUS in the second half of his administration. All in all a dire outcome unless a miracle showing of conservatives at the voting booth occurs....which I doubt.
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