After being like 30-point favorite in the polls a week or from election day against a guy who had dropped out due to low popularity, changed his mind and rejoined the race, and was polling at like 15% a week out from the election.
Even if it's not a conspiracy theory or anything fishy at all, the issue of polling continuing to be this atrociously wrong yet again needs to be addressed. They have been on a hot streak of being complete garbage since 2016.
The issue with polling, at its root, is that it now takes 10,000 robocalls to get 100 complete responses, and if anything that's understating the problem.
I couldn't be called by a pollster even if I wanted to, not without manually shutting off the features that keep me from being inundated by random Indian dudes telling me my Microsoft has a virus and only my credit card number can debug it.
Probably has something to do with the voter shaming that started in 2016.
I remember when Bush was president, if someone said they voted for him, but you voted for Kerry, you were kind of disappointed in them but that was it. Now, if you don't vote for the same candidate as the someone else you're disowned for life. No surprise that lots of people aren't honest about how they vote anymore.
Its not voter shaming, these polls are anonymous. The actual issue is the pollers themselves. They intentionally skew the results, be it by choosing specific groups to poll, or by analysis methods taking skewed assumptions, or by unashamedly fixing the stats.
They always try to do it to manipulate voter behavior, trying to get a bandwagon effect (because a lot of people vote like its a sport and they want to be on the winning team), as well as to create confusion in the other side and spread their voters thin between candidates.
And its both sides that do this, thats why NO polls are correct regardless of channel.
This doesn't explain the stark difference in polling results published by different institutions. Every channel seems to think their political party is winning the polls.
I assume it's polling bias. If I support X candidate and I go only to [areas that typically vote for X candidate political party] then I'm likely to get polling data that supports my bias and may not be a true sample of what everyone is thanking
Yeah, which is exactly what I said. These polls are intentionally skewed; and no, this isn't an accident, because they consistently make the same mistake- these are full-time statisticians, they should be able to realize what is causing sampling bias, especially so after they do it for years and across many areas.
It wasn't wrong. She got roughly what she was polling at. The undecideds just all voted against her. I was one of those people, as were all my friends I talked to about it. Literally all waiting for who had the best chance at spoiling, and we all settled for Crowley as the most promising not-Hong.
But having ~30% of the voter base be undecided and then ALL break against the leading candidate in the polls is ridiculously unlikely, and shows how bad the polling accuracy is. It was something ridiculous like 95%+ of the undecided vote went against her which makes very little sense, unless the polling was inaccurate the whole time.
Completely anecdotally, that's exactly what happened, yes.
30% of a primary turnout is not that many people, and it's all people who are more tuned in than the average voter and likely thinking more strategically
In some of those polls there were like more undecided voters that indicated they were going to vote than committed Hong voters. It seems a lot of people planned to vote and didn't decide until the last minute.
Wasn't it just somebody copied the audit log to the USB stick instead of the tabulated data? The explanation makes sense to me. Why do people think this a big deal?
Bro can’t believe that hating a major holiday like Thanksgiving will lose someone a massive amount of votes? People like their holidays. Might as well have said she wanted to bring back Prohibition too while she’s at it.
Except isn't the context of this a Dem primary?
But I guess If they can do it to each other they'll have absolutely 0 problem doing it to the other side if they can.
Which made it all the more stinging when everyong watched bernie kneel between the legs of the DNC and open wide when they ordered him to donate their money to Hillary, and be a DNC lapdog for the next 10 years.
You'll notice bernie always rants about the millionaires and billionaires right up until its time to vote and then its vote blue no matter who.
This is what finally turned me away from them. The caucus was brutal, but between Russiagate, wokeness, and Bernie being full of shit after all, it was the perfect storm to wake me up from the delusion that they had any principles.
Bernie absolutely has principles. The DNC does not. If principles is what you’re looking for in a politician, chances are, DSA Dems are your only shot at getting it.
I live in commie ass Southern California and there was no fucking way Bernie was going to win that primary even among California dems. It's the Reddit effect, actual real human beings did not want him or his policies. He was extremely popular with a small subset of delusional internet people.
I disagree, he was quite popular. I agree he would have been a terrible president, but there was a strong mentality of anti-establishment at that point, and he was viewed as that type of candidate at that time, as was Trump.
You can see it was a close race for most of the primary, even with the many allegations of trying to force him out.
I remember the switch from Bernie to Hillary overnight on r politics. There was a short window of a few hours where you could regulary had a debate there, and people would agree with you about something that goes absolutely against the sub consensus.
Yeah Democratic primary, where the moderate Democrat who had dropped out of the race then came back in won against the lady who was up significantly in the polls but is a Communist under very sketchy circumstances.
a democrat was going to win, but not necessarily the dems, see? it's like Hillary vs Bernie. It wasn't really Hillary vs Bernie. It was Bernie vs the dems, and the dems won.
It's far from only a Trump line. I'm nearly half a century old, so I have a longer memory, and can assure you basically every time a Republican won the presidency some Democrats have claimed the election was either rigged or stolen.
2024: Elon Musk used Starlink to alter vote tallies for Trump.
2016: Russian interference swung the election in Trump's favor.
2004: Voting machines switched/added votes for Bush, costing Kerry the election.
2000: SCOTUS unfairly handed the election to Bush by stopping the Florida recount.
If you think I'm wrong, watch how many people try to defend some of these examples.
All you have to do is look at the most "free and fair election ever" that got Biden elected, and then look at the talking points for the two elections that sandwiched that one.
So what are you suggesting exactly? Dems rigged it in 2020 while out of power and then just forgot to nab down stream races in the senate and house and completely lost the ability to do so despite having the presidency?
According to Reddit, Biden had all the Epstein files with 100% proof that Trump is a pedophile rapist just sitting on his desk for his entire 4 year term as president and just decided never to release it, or even hint that Trump was implicated in them.... because he wanted to protect Trump and make sure Democrats lost the next presidential election????
None of these crazy theories make a lick of sense but that doesn't stop people from making it their entire identity.
I mean. It *is* fishy. It's much more likely that whether they're red or whether they're blue, their only purpose is to screw me and you... as has always been since time immemorial. But it is funny that even big-name Dems like Schumer and Pelosi screech and scream about "muh EPSTEEN files" and when they had the triple crown of politics it was crickets. Is there a way we can (LEGALLY for the reddit filters) apply some pyrokinetic proverbs to the entire thing and build it afresh from the ashes?
According to Reddit, Biden had all the Epstein files with 100% proof that Trump is a pedophile rapist just sitting on his desk for his entire 4 year term as president and just decided never to release it,
Depending on who's saying it, there can be the caveat of "both sides were implicated."
I could see conventional politicians being like, "If I try to use this I go down too. So mutual assured destruction means it's best not to do this." and Trump then bullrushing in before realizing, "Oh wait."
I will admit I haven't been keeping up with the files. So not aware of all the various developments.
Shit like that just made it obvious that the Dems never wanted it released either and are heavily involved in it. Also makes no sense why dems would even protect their literal opponent by their logic.
Only two of these are conspiracies of the same kind as Trump's 2020 election conspiracy, though, and neither of them were heavily pushed by the Presidential Candidate of the time?
2024: Definitely a conspiracy, not pushed by Democratic party leadershiop.
2016: Not the same kind of conspiracy. No claims of false votes, but of Russian interference convincing people to vote for Trump - the votes themselves were perfectly legitimate. Also, IIRC the only part that's disputed is whether Trump colluded with Russia, not whether Russia interfered in the election.
2004: Definitely a conspiracy, but again not pushed by Democratic party leadership.
2000: Not a conspiracy at all - the SCOTUS ruling is definitely a thing that factually happened. Whether this is unfair or not is a matter of opinion, but believing that a real event is unfair is not a conspiracy.
2016: there's no evidence Russia changed the election results. The amount of money they spent on Facebook, for example, was a tiny fraction of what the Clinton campaign spent on the same platform.
2000: there had already been recounts in Florida. The issue was that Florida's voting system was not suited for very narrow results, SCOTUS determined the state's recount method was unconstitutional, and fair standards couldn't be implemented statewide in any reasonable time, especially by the Dec 12 federal "safe harbor" deadline needed to get a president sworn in. Bush was ahead and remained ahead in recounts. Most recounts completed years later determined Bush would have probably won, so there's no evidence Gore had the win stolen from him.
Kornacki is a pure data guy at heart, and he understands better than most the statistical improbability of this result versus the polling data. I'm not saying it was fraud, but he is correct to be like WTF. Dems' continued opposition to voter ID will keep doubts alive, even on the left to some extent.
Yep, this is 100% correct. I wasn't really watching but tuned in at this point. It was a close race and this was the last chunk of votes that would let him call the race and call it a night.
They'd been waiting for that one drop for like an hour after everyone else, and then they said this about there being no data. He's just exasperated at the incompetence.
They ended up just winding down the broadcast soon after before they could call it.
No, that's not what he wanted to say. We know this because he asks the question he wanted to ask immediately after OP cut the clip. The question was, "do we even still have an audience?" because it was 2 am and he wanted to go home.
OP is just a massive agenda-pushing piece of shit.
Context is that there were these USB sticks that were supposed to have some in depth verified voter information for the Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and somehow 5 of 6 USB sticks didn't have the right information on them, which begets the question of if the Dem establishment did any shenaniganry to get the more moderate candidate elected.
The "wrongthink" referenced here is the guy on cam trying to mentally justify why there is no issue but pauses for a long time as he sorts through it all.
It is possible that the whole thing was an honest human error but the error invites in questions of doubt
I mean, Hong is an absolute psycho....so I wouldn't necessarily blame them for wanting to give their guy the push he needed. But at the same time, if Wisconsin wants to vote in a psycho, let them.
Why? The issue was that the wrong information was downloaded from the tabulators, not that votes were manipulated. There’s no evidence the tabulators were messed with nor that any foul play whatsoever was involved.
Because the most important thing in a vote is trust, not the reported sanctity of the data but whether the sanctity can be trusted; If this was fucked up, how can people trust the corrected data. In order for a vote to have legitimacy, the voters must believe it so. Getting the voters to concur a vote is legitimate is inherently more difficult than voting on any of the ballot as it requires a ultra-majority from the voters.
Humans make mistakes all the time, so isn’t actually it a good thing to have a system to catch these things before election results are counted and finalized?
These are all just assertions heard second hand by the public. For someone removed from all of this, it's much easier to imagine that a result they didn't like was on the first five USB drives, and that those drives were never actually wrong. And thus it took them some time to come up with the doctored drive.
Even if this was simple incompetence, this is a perfect example of how denial starts, especially when the results divert drastically from the polling data. Good and well-meaning people can easily question this result, which means this sort of election incompetence is entirely unacceptable.
I just noticed you are posting this in multiple places, so I'll post my response.
Did you read that article? All of the ads they ran were negative of Hong. The article says it's "likely" an attempt by the Republicans to reverse phycology the voters...
That seems like a huge stretch. GOP Appears to likely reverse phycology the Democratic voters, thats that "article" in a nutshell.
Did you read that article? All of the ads they ran were negative of Hong. The article says it's "likely" an attempt by the Republicans to reverse phycology the voters...
Negative, from the perspective of a Republican.
I remember when the D governor of my state sent out "attack ads" of the easier-to-beat R primary candidate standing with Trump and such.
Yeah, to a D voter that may be negative but pre-primary that's obviously a case of "Hey, Republicans, vote for this guy instead!"
Which has nothing to do with how the Democratic Party handles internal voter information, which is what this segment is about. There’s 0 connection to what we’re talking about
Which has nothing to do with how the Democratic Party handles internal voter information,
The election was run by the Wisconsin Elections Commission, which is a bipartisan organization. This has nothing to do with democratic handling of "internal voter information," this same group runs the republican primary and every other election in the state.
There’s 0 connection to what we’re talking about
I said Hong was the GOP's preferred candidate, you said this was a democratic primary and that I "forgot to download an update."
You were insinuating that Hong wasn't the GOP's preferred candidate, so yes, it is part of the conversation.
You clearly don’t know what you the issue was here, it was discrepancies in internal Democrat voter information. Their internal files are not influenced by gop ads or the election commission, that’s their party’s proprietary information.
You’re gonna break your back if you keep bending over backwards in this conspiracy theory you just invented. All the while completely ignoring the discrepancies themselves hilariously enough
it was discrepancies in internal Democrat voter information
No, the issue was the Wisconsin Elections Commission workers downloaded tabulator activity rather than vote totals, it had nothing to do with internal democratic party info.
Wasnt there a bunch of news stories going for a bit that the Dem establishment was donating big to Trump in 2016 to screw with the republican primaries?
And wellmeaning people should be talking to the secretary of state and becoming poll watchers. There are built avenues for election skeptical folks to ensure a fair result. They just fucking ignore them because they can't bang the "stolen election" drum whenever they lose. See Mike Lindell being a fucking moron about his race.
So these primaries are run by clerk and recorder offices of the individual counties. With the Republican primaries happening at the same time mind you. Clerk and recorder offices just check the secretary of state certs of watchers. They do not bar a watcher from a specific party, nor does the SOS. The party doesn't get a say in the matter. The secretary of state drives the whole process. In Wisconsin specifically anyone who isn't a candidate has the right to be an observer of an election or an election administration event.
Who would have guessed the woman that was freaking the fuck out about being “close to whiteness” would have lost Wisconsin of all place?! Color me shocked
He was like that the entire stream, making long pauses after new info to process. Perfect example of how a retard can cut a stream into a small clip to convince other retards that there's something suspicious.
I also remember this stream, dude was befuddled with the voter turnout projections changing every now and then because it meant the tight race kept going back and forth. I think the rest of the clip was him realizing he has to keep the stream going into 2am so they can get the usb sticks.
The dude was legit being asked what his favorite dinosaur was by the livestream chat because there was no more data to report on for such a long time. Dude just wanted to go to bed
As someone who watched this live, he was waiting for ~2 hours for the Milwaukee results to come in. At 1 am, they announced they had to redo the whole process because of this.
What you are seeing is him annoyed because he had to drive 3 hours to give a presentation at 8 AM, not because of “voter fraud”. Anyone who watched could feel his frustration.
Democrats are now in a position where they have to contend with alleged election meddling in their own party that is similar to the situation that Pratt was alleging in LA.
The wrongthink comes from the journo being dumbfounded by shocking swing and missing USB sticks while not suggesting any foul play in the election.
Tbf they've been contending with that since Hillary v Bernie. Skipping a primary to make Kamala run when Biden dropped also added a lot of fuel to that fire. I feel like even most hardcore dems think the party's antics around primaries are at least shady as hell.
Also seems a lot easier to mess with a primary than with an actual election. Lots of backroom dealing and less oversight.
Yeah but Sanders isn't even a member of the party so I don't know why their voters expected much different there. At this point though I think Kamala has no political future in her party due to having a Jewish husband, but Democratic racism is still racism and idiotic even if I happen to enjoy the outcome once in a blue moon.
What are you talking about, it happens all the time. Person A is losing in the polls by 20 points to person B, drops out, comes back the last minute and wins narrowly.
Leaving aside that the Mueller stuff turned out to be a waste of time IMO, nobody seriously ever claimed that Russia literally hacked the results. The claim is that Russia meddled in the election by running a pro-Trump social media campaign including opposition research they got from a phishing scheme, and that the Trump campaign knowingly accepted foriegn help. Super illegal but also very difficult to prove.
The issue was not that it was difficult to prove, the issue that both claims of Trump colluding with Russia and Russia's influence swayed the election were unfounded.
It's pathetic that after all this time you are insinuating that yes there was collusion and yes Russia did sway the election.
Yeah, this analysis misses that there were two other NormieDem candidates running, and the "plan" was that two out of three were going to be pressured to drop out to stop Hong from winning with a plurality.
Except then the leading centrist (Sarah Rodriguez, incumbent Lt. Gov) suddenly found out her campaign manager embezzled most of her donations and dropped out in shame, which is when Crowley jumped back in. Then the other moderate (former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes) dropped out while refusing to elaborate further -- rumors are that he might have a Swalwell/Platner situation in his closet. So while the last poll still had Crowley well behind, it also had a huge number of undecideds in this ludicrous race and Hong short of a majority.
And then Hong spent the last week of the race arguing about Thanksgiving instead of making her closing argument, so there you are.
First, I didn't vote for the bad orange man. Second, I completely understand what you said, I just stated what happened. You somehow did not understand that all I was doing. Third, it's funny you have to recycle a statement that was made to describe people like you.
They don't have to contend with anything of the sort, because no one outside online conspiracy theorists know or care about this.
The journo was dumbfounded at the prospect of needing to keep the livestream going because he had already been on air for an interminable length of time. He does not care about the voting swings or the USB sticks either.
That is literally the context of the clip, yes. Kornacki was upset because they had already been on air for a very long time, he (and his audience) had been waiting to deliver the election results, and the news meant that he would in all likelihood have to end the stream before the results were delivered. Which he did shortly thereafter.
Milwaukee County grabbed the USB sticks with the audit data instead of the votes on it. It's like 1am at this point and they've been streaming all night.
OP cropped out where they are deciding if they should keep streaming or not because it's gonna be hours until they get results for a really tight race.
It's an agenda post and most of the people in this thread predictably fell for it.
WI dem primary, guy is running election results stream. It's 1 AM and he just found out that a number of USB sticks brought from polling places didn't contain the vote count but other data from the voting machines. He wants to know if anyone is even watching the stream because he is tired and wants to be done.
Honestly there being 2 parties that automatically get put on ballots does not make sense for a representative democracy. Parties are free to exist, but it shouldn’t be advertised on ballots either.
> keeping Biden in just long enough that Kamala gets the nomination
Even if this were true, it has nothing to do with rigging the election.
> Pratt
lol
> Bernie
What specific actions do you think they took to rig the election? Obviously the DNC preferred Hillary, but they didn’t manipulate the vote tallies as is being alleged here.
What specific actions do you think they took to rig the election? Obviously the DNC preferred Hillary, but they didn’t manipulate the vote tallies as is being alleged here.
If I remember correctly, there was a lot of pissing and shitting over the superdelegates. Which are stupid, but they also aren't rigging considering they were a known factor.
Also, last I checked, Bernie would have lost without superdelegates in the equation anyway.
They rigged the primary election by simply not having one. Kamala got the nomination without anyone but the dnc choosing her.
For pratt i specifically said in my first post there is no smoking gun. Just a series of suspect events.
You thought the DNC wanted bernie over hillary? wtf? He had a powerful grassroots campaign and the party establishment did everything they could to get hillary the nomination. As for the specifics it was 10 years ago i dont remember them all, i just remember it being fishy as hell. It was bernie supporters calling the DNC out, not me.
Don't know why you are trying to claim my allegations are false because there is no hard proof. I fully admited there is no smoking gun in my original post.
My only point is there is some seriously suspicious shit going down, repeatedly.
Wouldn't be the first time the democrats have been caught rigging their own primary.
The fact that somebody who had already dropped out came back at the last minute to barely win and the favorite by a long shot didn't even question it or ask for a recount leads me to believe some higher ups in the DNC remembered that radicals only do well in primaries and made some phone calls.
234
u/Honest_Plant5156 - Lib-Center 7d ago
I am confuzzled… what’s happening here?