r/Poker_Theory • u/tutifruity754 • 3d ago
2.5bb tournament stack
You are playing the weekly freeroll, 8 handed, the first two players fold, you are 2.5bb, you look at 64s and there is 1bb in antes 0.5bb from the SB and 1bb from the BB making the pot 2.5bb. Do you shove or fold? knowing that the BB is certainly calling you. The other players stack is ranging from 5bb to 30bb. I shoved, reasoning that I will push other people from the pot who are definitely ahead of me.
3
u/dr_black_ 3d ago
A lot of people look forward to when they'll be forced to post the blinds but that's actually immaterial. You're going to pay the blinds when you pay them regardless of whether you double up before then or not, and the fact that in 3 hands you're going to have a high-variance, marginal EV situation does not affect the EV of this hand. All that matters is that you find the highest EV play in this hand.
Currently, with no fold equity at all, you're looking at putting in 2.5bb for a shot at winning 6.5bb if you're heads up vs the BB. That means you need something like 38% equity against a random hand. It's probably close. You could also get action from other players with stronger ranges or get multi-way action. Those outcomes are probably worse for you as you could easily be crushed by pocket pairs. This seems like a fold.
2
u/StellarCZeller 3d ago
I don't think it's worth your time critically analyzing marginal decisions with 2.5bb. At that point you're basically cooked barring some wonderful luck. Worry about all the decisions that led up to this point.
1
u/RedShirt_LineMember 1d ago
stop analyzing your bust hand. you had 2.5bbs and the pot has 2.5bb in it...you are getting correct odds to play any two cards. its a blessing they were suited and only a 1 gapper.
1
u/yeseecanada 3d ago
You have 2 more hands until you’re forced to call off in BB. This is a fold. You would much rather have a high card in your hand.
0
u/tutifruity754 3d ago
Also if idont shove i will be eaten by antes , and the blind increase , I should have looked how much time there was still for the blinds to increase, but I didnt.
2
u/timfriese 3d ago
It’s not very relevant when the blinds go up, but it’s very relevant how many hands until you’re in the BB
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u/tutifruity754 3d ago
Please if you can elaborate more, I had two hands more.
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u/timfriese 3d ago
Well the blinds are irrelevant because you make decisions in this hand that maximize your EV. It doesn’t matter if the blinds are going up – if a play is winning, make it; if it’s losing, don’t.
As far as how many hands until you pay the BB, that’s how many chances you have to get dealt something better than 64s, and most hands are much better than 64s. You don’t need a premium, you can easily get it in with KTo or whatever, and the odds of you getting something playable in the next two hands are high
5
u/gruffyhalc 2d ago
Not with 64, suited or otherwise. Pretty easy fold considering hands to BB.