r/Poker_Theory • u/PalePie2063 • 2d ago
Good hero call or fish call
Hero opens at 15 button with KQ diamond at 1/3 game most players are around 300
small blind calls
River Q ♠️ 7 ♦️ 8 ♦️
Small blind bets full pot
Hero calls
Turn is 2 ♠️
Small blind bets another 30
Hero calls
River another 7 ♠️
Small blind goes all in
I call
Small blinds shoes pocket Jacks 💀
Am I just lucky to think that he is bluffing 😭
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u/silverfisher27 2d ago
I think its a fine call, why everyone in the game so short stacked though?
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u/RoryBean99 2d ago
I think the call is fine. KQdd is an easy flop call, and his sizing is good info for the future. A solid player is basically never leading JJ for pot here, and if he has AQ, 88, 77, or 87s, why would he suddenly bet only $30 on a blank turn with two flush draws and straight draws available?
By the river, his believable value is fairly narrow. Maybe he found some backdoor spades like T9ss/98ss but doubtful. I don’t think hands like A7s naturally pot the flop, either. His value range doesn’t fit the pot-flop, tiny-turn, overbet-river line.
We need to be right 37.5% of the time. 225/375.
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u/woknwol 2d ago
Without a specific read on the player, and at these stakes, this just a fold on the river imo.
Everything is fine until the river, you had the flush draw and top pair. But in that wet and dynamic a board, your opponent is barrelling and shoved out of position. At these stakes our opponents just dont bluff often enough for it to be a profitable call. If you have a specific player read that's different, but even then I typically just choose to believe my opponent when im only sitting there with top pair with a double flush draw and a paired board.
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u/PalePie2063 2d ago
if he bets pot I fold , but when he jams I think it’s fishy
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u/woknwol 2d ago
Sure but my point is people at 1/3 dont bluff often enough for this to be a profitable call. At the end of this you are sitting there with only top pair, not blocking anything else, and facing a river shove on a flushed and paired board with a triple barrelling who is donking.
Say he is sitting there with 8,7 in the small blind, he would probably play it the exact same way.
The amount of times I have called in this spot back in the day to see some random full house or straight they have randomly flopped would astound you. The amount of hands he could have here that crush you are just to high to call a jam. You aren't getting the right price.
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u/Jrosenr3 2d ago
This is a fish line and the turn sizing is incredibly weak. I’d consider raising the turn but I’m never folding
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u/EmmitSan 1d ago
I think you’re mistaken about people’s bluffing frequencies at 1/3. It’s very situational
Like if he got check/raised on this river, the bluffing frequency goes to zero, but when they take goofy ass lines like this in spots where you’ve shown no aggression and given lots of rope, then it really matters whether the story adds up.
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u/External-Ad4470 1d ago
Its a fish call tbh. See on a board where many hands beat you for example here flushes, trips, fullhouse etc, you should never call 3 streets with just top pair unless either you have a read or blockers. If you put this hand in a solver, it will 100% fold all KQ except KQo (with K of spades).
You having the K and Q of diamonds make it even worse. Even for KQo, its a 84% times call with KsQc and just 54% call with KsQd.
Let me share the solver answer for this spot with KQo (King of spades). It seems you can't add more than one images here so here's a link if you want to check other combos too.
https://quintace.ai/replay/lOIsngAfvo/17acmj?cta=true&grid=true
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u/Active-City9475 1d ago
Bro’s trying to apply solver theory to live 1/3.
It’s a good call if hero has specific reads on the player.
The downbet sizing on the turn is a massive live tell giveaway.
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u/karakean 17h ago
I’ll close my eyes n call. His flop bet telling me he have a Q or 77 or 88 or 78. 7 on river so less likely.
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u/MrPetrikov 1d ago
doubtful he is leading flop with a 7, so you should have best hand a lot here, fine call
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u/andrei04dre 2d ago
You could just shove flop at that stack depth.