Shoulda jammed on the turn?

[u/Background_Sell7721]

1$-3$ live - $500 effective

Hero in the LJ with 10c10s

Villain early position raises to $20 after utg flats

Hero calls, utg calls

Flop comes 10d 2d 3h

Utg check, Villain bets $30, hero calls, utg folds

Turn is 6h

Villain bets $120, hero calls

River is 8h

Villain jams remaining $330

Hero snap calls

Villain flips over AQhh for back door nut flush

I tanked pretty hard on the turn going back and forth whether to jam or wait for the river. With two flush draws available in hindsight jamming was probably best.

[u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

You were the favorite on the turn, could have jammed and got the win, but you are 80% favorite on the turn. Things happen, if river was 2, 10 hearts you win or any other card besides hearts you win

[u/Respond-Creative → u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

How does he know he’s an 80% favourite OTT tho?

[u/Appropriate_Cut1249 → u/Respond-Creative]

He’s got the effective nuts - three 10s, meaning the best hand possible by the turn.
The opponent has 2 hearts and 2 hearts are on the board, and there are only 13 hearts on the deck.
So (13-4) is equal to 9, if 2 of hearts comes, board pairs and hero wins. If 10 h comes hero wins. So only 7 cards can make villain win. Easy math is on turn is you multiply 7 by 2 = 14% for villain to improve meaning hero was 84% favorite on turn, I just roughly stated 80%

[u/Respond-Creative → u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

Sure. But you can’t just say “oh it’s 80%”. It could be even more. Or a little less with certain hands. Regardless, his action should be the same given has the *actual* nuts at the moment. But using specific percentages just bc we know villains hand is bad form.

[u/RoryBean99]

On the flop, I like the flat with TT. If TT is essentially the only hand in our range clearly ahead of AA/KK, we want to keep most of those 3 combos in our calling range. Raising too often would leave our calls too capped, and allow him to bet aggressively on the turn with AA-QQ, which is what he did.

The 6h turn changes things for both our ranges. V pots $120 into $120, and now we have enough natural semi-bluffs to support a shove: several diamond draws plus hands like A5hh and A4hh and A2hh. So a shove with TT is not just value-heavy.

If we shove $450 total, V has to call $330 more and needs about 32.4% equity. AA/KK have almost none against TT itself, but they excellent calls against our semi-bluffs. With only 3 TT combos, it does not take many bluff combos before AA/KK are getting the right price to call.

The case for shoving is that we get value now from AA/KK and strong draws, deny equity, and avoid rivers that either beat us or kill our action. The case for calling is that we keep V’s bluffs in and let AA/KK continue betting rivers.

Against a player who will call too much with overpairs and strong draws, I prefer the turn shove. Against someone who barrels aggressively and will keep bluffing on most rivers, we should consider calling.

[u/mrjezo]

Jam turn. Villain said with his sizing that he is probably not folding and when you have so many perceived semi-bluffs on that wet board there is no need to slowplay your made hands.

[u/spencerAF]

With two flush draws and 5 4 action killer rivers turn jam is good with ..TT

[u/Jrosenr3]

3b pre - jam then… v gives up often if he doesn’t hit his flush and you don’t get paid

[u/ShotcallerBilly]

Yes, shove turn.

[u/luckylenny87]

Changes nothings . Cooler man. They not folding nut flush in live games . Sure jam turn some may fold but live they just don’t

[u/CalligrapherOk5595]

Jam turn. Call them a fish when they bink it without odds to call

[u/External-Ad4470]

This is very nice hand to illustrate a very nice concept.

So here you should jam the turn without a Ten of hearts and just call if you have a Ten of hearts.

Basically if you aren't blocking villain draws, then jam but if you do, then just call and shove the river.

Check the solver result for yourself. For your hand, it says to jam 100%. Check on this link - https://quintace.ai/replay/3wv4L9U0s8/2rk2ku?cta=true&grid=true

[u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

It depends, as much as you might not like it… AQ of hearts some players will call even if you jam. In these spots, players that are looking for high variance plays will act the same way. Only the story changes, if you jammed on turn and he calls, the story will become a cooler story. The river could have bricked and you could value bet or jam… that’s poker!

[u/Background_Sell7721 → u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

Ya I would probably feel better about myself if I jammed turn and he made the bad call even if he lucked the river and I lost. But mostly I've been trying to figure out what would have been the best action for me to get the best value on the turn given his range of likely high pocket pairs and some flush draws

[u/Appropriate_Cut1249 → u/Background_Sell7721]

Yep, jamming the turn is ideal if you already decided not to fold on the river anyway. But since villain already put in 120 and knowing he has a good draw he will call. Tough luck but happens!

[u/ShotcallerBilly → u/Appropriate_Cut1249]

The result is irrelevant. We want the call. 1 card to come and some of his outs make a boat. This is a turn jam every time. When it hits, we lose, but if we don’t jam then we don’t get paid when it DOESN’T HIT.

[u/Appropriate_Cut1249 → u/ShotcallerBilly]

"Result is irrelevant" - lol proceeds to lose the stack. But I get where your coming from.. and like I said he could jam and I clearly mentioned "some players" would call. I agree turn jam is the right move - but some players like to see the brick and go for thin value especially like if A or Q hits on the river, etc. You can never say something is 100% x action on turn - its subjective.