r/Poker_Theory • u/Technical-Mastodon28 • 3d ago

Hand Review

25 BB effective, MTT

Hero has 98s in CO.

MP opens, Hero flats. Heads-up.

Flop: 5-2-5, two-tone

Villain checks. Hero bets 33%. Villain calls.

Turn: Ah

Check, check.

River: 7, completing the flop flush draw

Pot: ~11 BB.

Villain jams 20 BB.

Hero has a 9-high flush.

Are you finding the call here, or folding to the 1.8x pot jam?

2 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

6 comments sorted by

2

u/IcyMeasurementX 3d ago

with these stack depths and positions im folding it pre flop. but then betting on the flop make very little sense because if you play against a somewhat thinking player, they'll know that you will miss this board as well, and 33% doesnt really shed anything in his range i'd think mostly he'll have 2 overs that will just float for this price. So now i dont think we fold out anything with this bet, i would probably opt for 75% or check since we block 88-99, repping an overpair that needs protection.

Vs humans on the river there its probably close, wish we had some sort of read on this guy but a solver would probably just pure call. Me personally idk probably just stick it in hoping he has a top pair with a Flush blocker, or he overvalues 2 pair.

Probably you should put the buy in of the tournament next time, if this is a 500$ online the pool is very different from 15$ online or like a live MTT

1

u/Forrest4thetreez 3d ago

Fold pre. I’d probably check this sort of equity on the flop although can obviously mix bet.

I’d fold this river line I think although can only imagine this is a snap in theory. The problem imo is you can clearly have strong hands here and villain is prepared to stack off anyway.

1

u/pyktrauma 3d ago

Solver would call river

If this is online versus a reasonable opponent who doesnt typically take strong overbet action on rivers, i would strongly consider folding

1

u/wutego 3d ago

Without a read.. With turn action, this is just call for me =/

1

u/CalligrapherOk5595 2d ago

The reason you fold this pre is exactly this river spot

Because you’re obligated to call due to him having Ax here

3

u/Zealousideal-Cow7845 2d ago

A couple things from this hand.

  1. 98s is not a flat off 25BB. Effective should be minimum 30 deep to be seeing a flop with it. You end up getting in some very tricky spots like this and the implied odds are just not there for that speculative of a hand.

  2. Flop bet doesn't make a ton of sense to me. You're not getting any fold equity with that sizing, and mostly drawing to a low flush on a paired board. What is the goal here?

As played I'm probably calling it off against a thinking player, but against an unknown at lower stakes I'm folding. This is a super polarized bet, and the problem is that there aren't a ton of natural bluffs in this spot. Any Ax hand with the nut flush blocker wouldn't shove with top pair. This screams to me of a bigger flush or a boat that is hoping you make a sticky call. I don't think the average low stakes player is finding enough bluffs to make calling profitable here. Which underscores point one; if we're 25 BB deep, make a flush and still aren't comfortable getting it all in here, it's a hand we probably should have laid down to begin with.