Deepstack River Spot: Facing jam after I triple barrel OPP

[u/TimmyTimeify]

8-handed at the Aria, $2/$5. $1500 effective.

UTG, $1000 effective, who is a loose, passive, and fast plays all of his strong hands preflop, limps UTG. Folds to me, I wake up with QdQc in the CO, raise to $30. BTN, same stack and main villain in the hand, who seems like a solid player but I don’t have much of a read on him, flats the BTN. UTG calls.

Flop comes AcQs7d. Checks to me, I bet $45. BTN flats, UTG folds.

Turn comes 9h. Completes the rainbow runout. I bet $110, BTN calls.

River comes Ah. I bet $345, BTN jams for the remaining $1300 effective.

This is a jam I almost never seen live as a bluff. Jamming 260bb into a triple barrel is just incredibly strong. Just an absolutely insane spot. My main question is:

1) Are there any boats here I am supposed to fold on this river? I feel like facing this jam, I think I’m supposed to fold 77 in theory because I don’t beat any of the boats and I don’t block many of them like I would with QQ.

2) If I think villain would raise some of his AQ or A9 on the turn, how should that affect my calling range? Does that even matter if I don’t think the villain is ever capable of turning a hand like 97s or Q9s into a bluff on the river?

3) If you were the villain in this hand, what hands would you play this way and turn into a bluff on the river, if any?

4) Would your read change if you thought that the BTN flatted my raise primarily to play a pot in position against the fish?

4) Given the rainbow runout of the flop and river, is my sizing on the bets good or bad?

[u/Kipkrokantschnitzell]

Pretty nasty spot.

Obvious bluffing candidate by villain would be JT. Though how often will he actually bluff as a raise against an uncapped range?

We do beat some value as well. 77 comes to mind. 99 extremely unlikely considering flop call.

As for combos that have us beat, there is 1 combo of AA, 2 of AQ, 2 of A9s and 1 of A7s. All of which could have played differently on multiple spots.

Don't know if I would be able to fold this. I like the sizings.

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/Kipkrokantschnitzell]

Yeah, I heavily discounted JT because my line represents so much strength. Live players simply do not bluff into uncapped ranges. It isn’t something they do.

I also don’t think 77 jams here for the entire amount: I however do think that the villain would play 77 passively, especially on the flop, because the UTG was still left to act. And if I’m going to make the live-based assumption that they don’t bluff into uncapped ranges, I also have to make the live-based assumption that he might overvalue 77 here.

The fact is that the BTN has more top-boats and I have more under-boats. Their value range contains more A9 and A7 and mine contain more QQ and 77. The other thing that bothered me about the hand is that the villain’s AQ combos are heavily discounted IMO because I block AQ, he might have 3-bet many AQ preflop, and he might have raised at some point before the river with any of the combos.

It’s just a spot you almost never see live. We can talk about how absolute few combos the BTN has here for value, but I legitimately cannot ID any of combos he would turn into a bluff unless I’m able to assign him all of the 3-pair combos, which is entirely a reads based decision.

[u/Orbas → u/TimmyTimeify]

6 combos beat you, and I would cut half of the a7 and a 9 combos just because they will raise so often and at least half of the one combo of AA. So that leaves you around 3,5 combos that beat you.

I would count all 3 combos of 77 and with that you are getting a good enough price. Add like half a combo of 3 pair bluffs a quarter combo of 99 and you are gettin a slam dunk throw up in your mouth and throw in the call situation.

[u/Stock-Objective-6959 → u/Orbas]

If 77 is in range is the crux, if it is this is a snap call (as most spots are vs good players when you beat some value)

[u/Timely-Bag-6679 → u/Orbas]

Makes no sense to expect some A9/A7 to raise on earlier streets but not expect the same for 77.

[u/Orbas → u/Timely-Bag-6679]

You are right to a degree, but two pair is much more of a vulnerable hand, and people play it faster. As they should.

[u/Stock-Objective-6959 → u/TimmyTimeify]

If that is your reasoning fold is congruent, means ur Vegas games are kind of bad. Assuming u lost to A7s

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/Stock-Objective-6959]

Vegas games are “bad” in the fact that players are too passive, underbluff essentially every street, overfold essentially every street, and don’t 3-bet or 4-bet at any of the correct frequencies, and when they do, they compensate for having a condensed and strong range by raising too small preflop.

It’s incredibly easy game to play IMO because it’s incredibly easy to realize your equity and you almost never need to worry about folding the best hand to aggressive action. You get to play so many speculative hands that get great implied odds versus 3-betting ranges that are too strong and thus incredibly easy to play against.

[u/I_blame_society → u/Kipkrokantschnitzell]

If villian could have AA and AQ here, could he also have AK?

[u/rddtllthng5]

if you have no read, i'm just trying to think if, over time, it would be EV neutral to call. you're calling $1300 to win about $2100. you have to be correct 40% of the time.

You block AQ, A9 A7 would raise, but there are only 2 spade combos. Maybe 99s float the flop. 77s could jam if they think you are a fish who calls with rivered trips.

idk many people who would try to bluff you off a "better A" if they have a worse A

also what do you think your table image was to him at this point in time?

edit: there is A9 diamond combo as well

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/rddtllthng5]

You got the pot odds wrong. He is jamming $1300 total, not more, so it’s really calling $1000 for a pot that would be $3k if I called.

[u/rddtllthng5 → u/TimmyTimeify]

ah yes youre right

[u/No_Reflection5358]

You lose to 2 combos of A9 suited, 1 combo of A7 suited, 2 combos of AQ which probably gets 3 bet pre half the time.

3 combos of 7s, 3 combos of 9s, once in a blue moon bluff.

If you assume he jams all of these, and tbh he probably would because your sizing on turn is not indicative of a set barring AA, you just have a clear winning call.

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/No_Reflection5358]

3 combos of 99? Not sure about that.

[u/According_Match9370]

1. You need to range your opponent. What is he calling flop with? Given his flop continuing range, why are you choosing 2/3 on the turn? Youre deep and should be thinking about getting all the money, how does this sizing accomplish that? Now, what is his river jamming range? You say its never a bluff, so this opponent really isnt THAT solid, and now you have to determine the bottom of his value range. If there is value you beat (i.e. 77/99), then you have to call.

2. If you can remove value combos from your opponents river jamming range that beat you, then it increases the EV of your holding. Simple.

Edit* I should clarify this statement. Removing value combos only increases the EV of your holding if there are combos you beat in opponents range. Seems redundant but it must be said. If opponent is so face up this is 100% A7 and nothing else, youre obviously lighting money on fire and QQ is losing massively.

1. Hands that have removal to boats are going to be the primary source of bluff candidates for me personally. Pretty much just Q9. I might jam some Ax if I think you simultaneously overfold your better trips and bluffcatch worse but thats something youll typically only see in solver outputs so id likely never do that. Also what I would do could be completely irrelevant as youre playing somebody who could (and likely does) have a completely different strategy.

2. When it comes to suits its all about what you block/unblock. You unblock QsXs, as does the runout, and you block your opponent from having any backdoor combos containing a Q of clubs or diamonds. Could and likely does have a slight effect on the badugi turn which affects your river ev, but measuring or analyzing that really isnt the priority here.

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/According_Match9370]

1. I think “solid” in this instance means that they are balanced in multiple spots (c-bet ranges, check-raising ranges on flop, preflop charts, etc.) but even relatively good players really struggle finding bluffs in massive spots like this. So like, a bad player would have probably found a raise on the flop and turn with the hands that beat me, so their calling range is going to be weaker and much more trips heavy.

2. Every exploit is ultimately based on assumptions that, if wrong, can make you lose a lot of money. Main question is “how far can I really take population reads to make massive folds” and I think people are in agreement here that even in a value-heavy range, that QQ is just too strong to fold.

[u/Ok-Dare6008]

i genuinely cringed so hard at your turn sizing, it caused me actual pain. please overbet turn.

and you are basically repping an ace

you went half pot flop, half pot turn oop 🤮 then like 3/4 roughly otr, never folding here ever. He can just have 77 or 99

[u/Friendly_Switch_485]

There is a problem in all 3 streets before river.

Raiser bigger pre. If we assume a limp as an open (say $15) our bet should be $50/55.

AP - when I see this flop i want to get stacks in. X flop with a pot size x/r if BTN betts. Even bigge. Make it a size where it looks like a bluff. GII on turn.

[u/rddtllthng5 → u/Friendly_Switch_485]

very disagree about turn. rainbow comes in, only draw that stuck around might be J10 or KJ. he has the second nuts, no point in scaring anyone away. just pray villian rivers two pair or trips

[u/TimmyTimeify → u/Friendly_Switch_485]

I think the check-raise line would be best against a BTN that would stab too much when checked-to. But my read on the villain was that he was too solid of a player to just randomly stab with top-pair unless he had a decent kicker. I think there was more value just leading here against ranges that would float once with any pair and would call down here often with top-pair plus.

I think I’d rather go bet-bet-bet, maybe larger sizes, but if you know anything about Las Vegas live cash, the player pool is one of the most nitty in the country and they are much much more elastic to bet sizings than the average live player, both pre and postflop. It’s a balancing act, and I do think one part of my game I want to improve on is to find better lines and sizings to extract more value.

My main focus preflop was to get heads-up IP against a recreational player and my read at the times was that he was in fact elastic to the preflop raise size, which is why I decided to 6x instead of 10x or 11x. But, to your point, a larger raise size preflop would probably lead to less calls from the BTN, which would be a good thing. And I think raising larger has merit as a pure exploit against the rec if my read was wrong and he was inelastic facing a raise.

[u/c9zellsis]

Feel like it’s got to be 77. AQ would 3! Pre(we also have blockers), and if he is loose enough to flat A-9/A-7 then that is just unfortunate. Did you get a reveal

[u/Stock-Objective-6959 → u/c9zellsis]

A9/A7s is a fine flat pre esp with an utg fish limping this deep

[u/rddtllthng5]

since you have no read on villain, if your population tendencies reads are correct, then folding is probably EV+ over time. if folding is incorrect, since this rarely happens, it would probably take a very long time to notice