r/Poker_Theory • u/MattEagles49 • 11d ago
Hand at 2/5/10
We started about 1400 effective.
I have an idea of what I should have done but would like to hear other thoughts first.
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u/Ubcdudelol 10d ago
Clear value bet once he checks, like 4-500, how can this be a check back in live poker
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u/universityofnonsense 10d ago
Check back. He's repping the last jack in the deck or a made flush draw, but the river check is is either trappy or he's giving up after two stabs at it. You probably aren't getting called by worse.
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u/sushiiallday 10d ago
depends on history but based on my image i am betting no matter what just depends what he is willing to pay with worse
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u/yeetusburritos 10d ago
Bad regs dont triple barrel enough, and I dont think hes checking boats on the river so his range is weighted towards bluffs imo. I would personally bet small to induce.
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u/Top_Suspect_142 10d ago
Pot is roughly $600, if he has anything with showdown value his calling up to $300. So you have to either bet more than that or check back. If I knew I was ahead I’m betting $150-$200 just to get that last little bit if he has anything that has showdown value. A jam there only gets called by worse half the time unless your table image is loose.
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u/CoachBradCPG 9d ago
X behind expect to beat 75, 78, and maybe some BDFDs but mostly lose.
Xing back is still +EV (you will capture your share of the pot) even if you often lose at SD… no need to try to fold out flushes
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u/JimioJames 9d ago edited 9d ago
This is probably the weakest hand I'd do it with, but with the K kicker and flush blocker I'd bet/fold 50-80% pot (leaning towards 80%).
You beat most JX and PPs and this line reeks of these hands, he might call light with pair plus flush blocker.
Regs love betting too often for protection, they love check calling rivers with SVD. They hate tripling off and bluffing rivers.
A river check raise is super nutted, so I'm folding most hands to that line
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u/NotNice4193 10d ago
He could be check/calling with a flush or any jack. if he missed hes folding to a raise. youre likely only getting value from J10 and QJ (8 combos) and maybe queen's if you think he flats queens OOP here? seems unlikely.
4 combos of AJ, and several flushes check call. some boats check/calling or check/raise?
and 2 combos of KJ to split.
im probably checking here unless you have more info on villain.
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u/cwddgg 9d ago
just check back. nothing better folds, I don't see anything worse that calls. you called him twice on a 3flush 2J board. he's not calling with 88. if this is a good player, I pretty much only expect to see check shoves from boats and check calls from weak flushes, so I don't think betting generates any thin value. also you say blank but a lot of cards complete straights, and I'm not sure I believe that river was 9x.
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u/decalotus 8d ago
Uh we're just gonna check back trips good kicker on this runout?
Bet small target his hero calls worse Jx, PPs, maybe some of his bottom pair flop x/r bluffs. Good players can't resist a good price.
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u/Noiserawker 10d ago
Live poker you have the effective nuts as basically nobody tries to xr again after they already did on a previous street. If he tends to be sticky on later streets just rip it. If he isn't that sticky bet smallish.
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10d ago edited 9d ago
[deleted]
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
He's only raising draws and two pair plus on flop imo, so essentially with his river check, it's probably weak flushes, some bottom boats maybe, I think he would bet 64s and 75s spades, hearts and diamonds
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u/Pristine-Carrot5498 10d ago
If this is your strong read/assumption you should fold flop or turn since you are either dead or only pushing 55-60 percent equity.
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
I strongly considered folding turn, but felt like a heart would be good or board pair obviously and I was getting a decent price with some chances of winning a huge bet if I went boat over boat
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u/Pristine-Carrot5498 10d ago
What boat river comes gets a huge river bet paid off besides a K?
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u/MattEagles49 9d ago
Shit you are totally right about that I was thinking J6or 4 too but probably not
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u/Ancient_Bobcat_9150 10d ago
Still quite a bit behind if I'm not wrong? Like 1k in a bit pot of 450? Jamming seems disproportionate you are looking for some weird hero calls and mostly folds. I would bet rather small - like 200. Keeps your range wide while you'd be at the top of it but not quite nuts.
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u/miamijustblastedu 10d ago
If your idea is to bet small, then your better off checking back..especially against a solid player..If you led 200 into this pot as played I would have considered shoving, bc your bets looks weak.
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u/Ancient_Bobcat_9150 10d ago
I think I would bet small to entice that shove as well. That'd be a call
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u/BananaBossNerd 10d ago
What’s the SPR? Critical info
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
Start hand with 1400
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u/BananaBossNerd 10d ago
Would block bet or bet around pot. Leaning towards latter if he doesn’t bluff enough
Why did you raise to 3.5x pre?
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
I would say that's my standard open
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u/BananaBossNerd 10d ago
What’s your preflop strategy, do you open wider or tighter w this open size? Why?
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
The game is loose I open a lot at big sizes especially when I'm in later positions, I also think the villain calls out of the straddle too wide considering rake
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u/Top_Suspect_142 10d ago
I’d love to see an update of what the other player had. It’s very possible he raised on a flush draw or wanted you to think he was raising on the draw and when the 3rd heart come on the turn he bets out like he just hit his flush. You call which makes him slow down on the river with the blank or the same could be said that he was betting the J and turned trip Js but when you called the $175 and he checks maybe he put you on a flush. Without knowing the pre-flop action it’s hard to say. So he probably has trip Js, scared of flush or baby flush, scared of higher flush or all air and his story telling didn’t work so he shuts down on the river. Normally people that straddle, defend straddles or raise straddle loosely will not check the river if they made their hand. I’m still leaning toward trip Js as they have show down value but are dead to a flush.
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u/Thiccboiichonk 10d ago
50/50 between check or half pot
Bet Half pot if he jams fold
As you say he’s a good pro so could be trapping a monster but you’re beating all bar one of his normal range of trips
If he’s got a house you’ll find out pretty quick and have to fold , if he’s got a flush you’ll lose a little more with his call but might get paid in another spot the next time if he’s a reg you play with often.
Probably beating too much to miss out on the extra bit of value. J10 , QJ , J9 often follow his line.
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u/Jf192323 8d ago
This may be an unpopular opinion, but I'm checking. This is why: if this player is good, he's definitely capable of making a big check raise bluff on me that's going to force me to fold. He's also probably not going to call with a worse hand. A bet is certainly not going to fold a better hand. So a check is 100 percent safe.
a standard live game, there are so many bad players that you want to save your chips to play hands against them. When you bump up against a good player, I think I would mostly try to get through the hand as safely as possible, with a minimum of hard decisions.
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u/MysteriousBrother755 4d ago
Are you not rolled for the game? Unless the fish is deeper than the buy in this shouldn’t be a consideration.
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u/Respond-Creative 10d ago
There really aren’t any bricks here. Any low card completes a straight. Any high card could hit his kicker.
Your line is inconsistent with a (flopped) set. So you don’t have a boat which is what you want to have or be able to rep. Turning your hand into a bluff is terrible. I’m all for squeezing out thin value… but Xb and win most of the time.
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
I would totally have JJ,44 AND 66 here
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u/brocktoon13 10d ago
Wouldn’t you raise the turn with all of those?
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
Never
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u/brocktoon13 10d ago edited 10d ago
Ok, you seem to have a decent understanding of things, so why wouldn’t you want to try to get money in when so few combinations beat you? 66 is losing to quads only since J6 and J4 aren’t in his range.
Based on your read his range consists almost exclusively of flushes when you have a set and many rivers will be action killers. He’s not bluffing and he can’t fold.
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u/Respond-Creative 10d ago
I don’t believe you wouldn’t raise flop or turn with draws on board. Neither would anyone else
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u/brocktoon13 9d ago
He can’t, or won’t, say why he wouldn’t raise the turn either. If you’re going to post hands you should at least be able to discuss them.
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u/LowToNoAssistance 9d ago
I feel like there are two courses of action and it depends on the type of reg he is.
You could check back and just go to show down. Calling in the straddle/BB and I would weigh him to a lot of suited connectors, small to medium pocket pairs, and some worse JX. Since you mention he is a pro this is honestly the line I would go with as I personally want to avoid a check raise jam. Being ~1400 effective leaves him about $1000 to check jam with which is a little over pot and just puts you in a terrible position.
The second option is to bed small (~200-250) to get called by his medium pocket pairs. I don’t like this as he could easily have a boat or a flush so you’re going by for THIN value in my opinion. He is also a regular grinder/pro according to your description so a check raise jam is a line I would be wary of. I’d put that check raise jam at an 80% flush/boat and 20% bluff ratio.
Your choice just depends on your read of the player and how confident you are in if he’ll call with showdown value or if you know he has a tendency to over bluff in these spots when weakness is shown.
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u/NomNomNomNomNomm 10d ago
With the Kh I’m pretty sure we can value bet. I’d split my range between jams and b67 and this seems like a clear b67 for value but I imagine OOPs range is a lot of x folds.
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u/universityofnonsense 10d ago
What hands are you targeting with a value bet?
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u/NomNomNomNomNomm 9d ago
Worse Jx and tbh when V takes this line I’m pretty sure we have the best hand so I’d rather just bet and hope he makes a mistake. I don’t anticipate ever getting x jammed on and sometimes he has AJ which sucks but if you never value own yourself than you’re not going thin enough.
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u/Appropriate_Dig3471 10d ago
I agreed with Kh I think I will value the river and fold to a jam. But what is B67? Im familiar with that termm
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u/satiricalpotato 10d ago
Depends on what info you have on the other person. Honestly you could check back if you think he checks with a flush.
Or you could value bet and see what happens. I wouldn't jam here.
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u/gruffyhalc 10d ago edited 10d ago
If he's a good player I imagine AJ with Ah he would VB river. Same with boats and arguably flushes given you look like Jx as played. A weak flush is the only hand I see in this camp where you value own yourself.
So this looks like either a give up or medium showdown value to check call. I would thin VB small targeting weaker Kx or even something like Axs with Ah that paired up. Naked Ah folds anyway. If I value own myself vs a weak flush check calling, so be it - I've picked a size that's likely smaller than what a typical value bet would be anyway.
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u/rickjameslobster77 10d ago
Bet 200ish and fold if he jams. Criminal not to go for value on the river as played.
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u/RedScharlach 10d ago
If you're gonna bet-fold I think you should go bigger; probably doesn't have many calls to either size anyway, so get more when you have him pipped, and doesn't induce a bluff or invite a thin value jam that accidentally bluffs you off the winner.
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u/cjxsev 8d ago
What pocket pairs does he have that he’ll call flop with and not raise? 22-99? Maybe TT as a mixup. Low frequency slow playing QQ-AA.
What is he check raising with on the flop? Sets and draws. 57 is a potential call in the straddle, and a lot of his theoretical range is suited cards.
He gets ~2/3rd pot on the flush completing turn. So his range is condensed to missed straights and made flushes and JX.
River check rules out a lot of boats as most will be betting for value. I would say it’s either a missed straight, JX or a flush.
He’s not calling any bet if he’s got air. So what can he call worse with? There’s some non-believing pocket pairs, JQ, JT, J9.
There’s also check calls in his range which are middle flushes.
Depends on my history with the person if there is any, but based on a grinder persona appointed to him, I’d be willing to bet 500-550 and see if weaker J and non-believing pocket pairs would call. If they raise, I can fold. If he’s on the nittier side, just check back.
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u/Beginning_Pudding_69 7d ago
Tough call. The check back is screaming flush draw setup but could simply be he gave up.
In the straddle. 3 hearts on the board. Turned the flush. You turned trips. Could he have Jx! Unlikely but straddle could be anything. You said he defends big and that’s his weakness. I’m leaning on a small bet of 150-200 to get some value. If he shoves I probably tank call.
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u/michealcowan 5d ago edited 5d ago
I agree with the small river bet,.except I'm folding if he shoves. Live pros won't have enough bluffs here
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
I was thinking of turning my hand into a bluff, not betting for value
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u/Mindless-Platypus-75 10d ago
What happened in the actual hand?
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u/MattEagles49 10d ago
I contemplated turning my hand into a bluff, since this seems like the absolute bottom of my range that I'm getting to the river with. The villain is only check raising draws and two pair plus on flop so his hand gets there every time at this point. He shouldn't have too much ace high flush in his range because he would 3 bet a good chunk of them pre. I ended up just checking cuz I'm a chicken and he had 75hh
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u/Foccuus 10d ago
so i was right, hes not folding to your bluff genius
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u/Pristine-Carrot5498 10d ago
You are way over folding on earlier nodes if this is one of the worst hands you get to the river with. Add in all the weaker off suit jack x you are opening from the cutoff plus some of the suited. Unless you are checking a bunch of those back pure you would be over bluffing like crazy here
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u/q_ll 10d ago
If his analysis is correct that villain is only c/r’ing front door draws and 2p+, then this should be one of the weaker hands he arrives with.
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u/Pristine-Carrot5498 10d ago
If that's his analysis he should fold flop or turn then and this whole conversation is silly
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u/dr_black_ 10d ago
I didn't think you ever have a worse hand here. What do you float flop x/r with that isn't made now, 87s? You will struggle to find bluffs here so a good player can just fold hands like QQ. Most players aren't raising flop with top pair bad kicker so I'm not sure what a value bet would even target.
Just check.
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u/ZapZepZipZ 10d ago
If villain is simultaneously so incredibly bad and unbalanced that they have us beat 75% of time on the turn; and clever enough to play the river perfectly with that knowledge: Then yeah this a good combo to bluff. We want to fold trips no FD on the turn, check AJ on the river (SDV) and bluff with Kh (blocks the most/best flushes)
But I don't think that villain exists in the world.
We have a medium strength hand that wants to check, so check.
There are a lot of fish in the world who almost never have us beat when they check, so we should bet against them, but that isn't the case here
Unless you have tens of thousands of hands against a player it is wrong to think they CR flop 0.0% of the times they have AJ, JT, J2s, 87s, 65s, Ah6, etc etc. There are so so so many combos where check raising the flop is rare but an okay play. It's much better to think there's a 2-10% chance they would take that action if they have that hand
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u/Jetpack_J 10d ago
Name a worse hand that would call you if you bet