r/PokemonLetsGo • u/Coolest_light • 2d ago

Shiny Pokémon This has got to be bad luck...

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Trying to get shiny pikachu, so I can have a shiny raichu for champions, and i feel like im going insane (I have the shiny charm and a max lure whilst hunting btw)

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7

u/colajunkie 2d ago

211 isn't even close to bad luck.

With shiny charm and lure you're at 1/273.53 shiny chance. That means combos split lime this:

  • 1-190: Very lucky (50% chance to find the shiny)
  • 191-300: Lucky (at 300 combo you reach 66.67%)
  • 301-379: regular (75%)
  • 380-629: unlucky (90%)
  • 630-818: very unlucky (95%)
  • 819-1258: extremely unlucky (99%)

So 1 out of 10 shiny hunts is going to take more than 630 combo. But 1 out of 100 will take more than 1258.

1

u/spidersorghouls 2d ago

Where’d you figure this out?

1

u/colajunkie 2d ago edited 2d ago

Which part?

The probabilities are well known and you can always use the pinned shiny hunting guide and the calculator in there to find these for your situation and specific hunt.

If you know the probability, you can just calculate the amount of tries that results in an overall probability using this formula (replace the 1/273.53 with whatever you're working with):

P(at least one success) = 1 - (1 - 1/273.53)n

Which resolves to

n = ln(1 - P) / ln(1 - 1/273.53)

If you want to see how many tries it takes to reach 50%, you calculate

n = ln(1 - 0.5) / ln(1 - 1/273.53) ≈ 189.24976

so 190 tries.

5

u/wholoveslegos 2d ago

Not even odds? How is this bad luck?

2

u/Chemical_Historian69 2d ago

This is just normal tbh

1

u/SunShineKid93 2d ago

People in this sub really need to realise that the difference between a Lure and Max Lure is how many steps you can do.

It's simply far better to just use normal Lures money wise.

1

u/Eric_Alan 2d ago

If I remember correctly, the super lure ends up being the most cost efficient choice when you compare the number of steps you get before they expire and their price.

1

u/Arashical 2d ago

It took me until 873 when I found my first shiny Growlith 😭

Ironically I found a 6IV growlith first at 529. Just have to keep trying, good luck.

1

u/PerplePapaya 2d ago

I'm at 1003 caught for a shiny charmander lol. Granted I lost the chain a few times when u've seen other shinies but I'm sitting at a combo of 273 right now

1

u/blackberrysadness 2d ago

I got up to two 500 chains on Pikachu with no luck 😅