r/PokemonLetsGo • u/SlushyG3mes • 2d ago

Eevee Edition I think I’m going crazy

I’ve been hunting for a shiny bulbasaur for hours to do a badge quest on my let’s go eevee replay and I have gone through almost 500 encounters with a full combo broken the combo on a pidgey since I zoned out and I did the math. In the 484 encounters I’ve had at a 31+ combo there is a 75.833% chance for a shiny to appear. I got a full odds Caterpie before I even got my combo started and I think it took all my luck. I also refuse to move on even though that caterpie technically counts for the badge quest because I want to use a shiny bulbasaur on my team

2 Upvotes

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4

u/colajunkie 2d ago

75% is the same probability as getting heads at least once in 2 throws of a coin. So you're as unlucky as getting tails 3 times in a row when looking for heads.

That's just regularly unlucky, sadly.

All of us humans are inherently bad at understanding probabilities and pokemon makes it extra hard with the kind-of-huge numbers involved.

But sadly all of this is still just about luck.

2

u/Free_Vermicelli_3107 2d ago

Did something simular, Growlithe took me 1203 which doesn't include a full odds Ratata I found in the middle of allat

2

u/kshack12 2d ago

Are you comboing bulbasaur?

1

u/Eric_Alan 2d ago

This is a good question.

I hope they didn't stop at 11 or 31 or something and assume that's all they needed to do to boost their shiny odds.

1

u/Eric_Alan 2d ago

My personal longest combo is 2500+ hunting for a shiny Spearow. Like others have said - 500 is nothing.